MattdWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I love the bowling ball of energy approaching at 500mb, I just don't like the distance from the surface feature....need to get there and bomb it out, tuck it in a bit....there is still tons of hope with this storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Vortmax is really dragging its heels at 45h...18z had a solid ball of vorticity in WV...00z is strung out from WV trailing back to KY and TN...the more elongated vortmax will prevent better formation of mid-level centers and less chance at snow in this system outside of the higher terrain. We need a dynamic bomb to get good accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Vortmax is really dragging its heels at 45h...18z had a solid ball of vorticity in WV...00z is strung out from WV trailing back to KY and TN...the more elongated vortmax will prevent better formation of mid-level centers and less chance at snow in this system outside of the higher terrain. We need a dynamic bomb to get good accumulations. I think the NAM is struggling still Will. It seems a bit disjointed, my guess is it's not quite at the final solution yet. It's probably too slow with that remaining energy (again) and we'll see the GFS deliver the goods one way or the other. GFS should slow up a bit from it's fast pace but the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 At 12z the NAM had the low over eastern PA, at 18z SE of NYC, this run SE or near ACK. Give it another 6-12 hours...it'll get it right. Out to have a few drinks...I think the GFS will give a much better idea...probably went too far at 18z...I think we're going to see a nice comma head form. NAM's on the good coke again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Lol..it's like sprinkles ending as flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This low goes from just east of ocean city maryland to 50 miles east of acy, then ene just east of ack and just east of the cape. Future runs of the Nam will have 500 more consolidated and east, surface will reflect with a potent ccb over sne, dynamics for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM has a relatively minor event but it killed the rainer it was advertising so this is a positive trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Lol..it's like sprinkles ending as flurries. It somehow drops nearly 0.50" of qpf here but its so disorganized and light that it would probably be like 3" of slop, lol. And as you said, in lower areas it might just be sprinkles to non-accumulating flakes or an inch of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM has a relatively minor event but it killed the rainer it was advertising so this is a positive trend. For your backyard. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Big shift toward the GFS. Still think the Euro will hold, and we'll see something more like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It somehow drops nearly 0.50" of qpf here but its so disorganized and light that it would probably be like 3" of slop, lol. And as you said, in lower areas it might just be sprinkles to non-accumulating flakes or an inch of slush. Yeah. We'll see how thing go but in my mind I'd still just expect a light to moderate event from your area up to CNE. The nam was really the only piece of guidance suggesting the VM would stay tight and/or strengthen. Ec had a decent look but even that wasn't tooooo impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If this was 5-10 years ago we'd be talking the EE rule with the ETA and 12z EC being big hits for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Bruchard's map. Pretty bold, especially with some of the recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is a central and southern New England Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Big shift toward the GFS. Still think the Euro will hold, and we'll see something more like that Lol Sam. It's a snow event for 90% of SNE. AMOUT AKT AIT AWT BYOB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Bruchard's map. Pretty bold, especially with some of the recent runs. He waffels with each NAM run, watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Lol Sam. It's a snow event for 90% of SNE. AMOUT AKT AIT AWT BYOB Its a good thing we have the new Phil to be Kevin's replacement after his 8 pm bedtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 so i am confused..is there or is there not a storm on saturday for sne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If this was 5-10 years ago we'd be talking the EE rule with the ETA and 12z EC being big hits for the interior. Yeah no kidding....and the Euro wouldn't run again until tomorrow, lol. All this model guidance now. I still like a track near ACK....and am weary of it running even closer, but I could see it falling apart too....but we have a few things working in favor of a hugger... -synoptic longwave pattern with trough in midwest and bit of a SE ridge -lack of block -gulf origin systems with convection have seemed to track NW of guidance at the last second Speed of system is really the only thing working against it from running inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Its a good thing we have the new Phil to be Kevin's replacement after his 8 pm bedtime. Lol. Yep. Just ballz out now. Nudity. Snow banks. Me FTW you FTL. Lollies to 30. Heavy heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Lol. Yep. Just ballz out now. Nudity. Snow banks. Me FTW you FTL. Lollies to 30. Heavy heavy. Go snow or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1985 Polar Bear Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Interesting observation from the usually routine GYX discussion (8:58pm update): 18Z GFS SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING LOW CROSSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE (42 MB DEEPENING IN 12 HRS!). IT CRASHES DOWN TO 931 MB IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DOUBT THAT WILL VERIFY...SINCE WE ARE SO FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT IT`S JUST AMUSING TO LOOK AT IN ANY CASE. NEVER SEEN THAT KINDA OF DEEPING FROM A NUMERICAL MODEL IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wow at the NAM. A bench mark track with 540 thicknesses at GC..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 RGEM is tracking the low up into CT....rain all the way to dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 RGEM is tracking the low up into CT....rain all the way to dendrite. Keeping the hope alive... haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 RGEM is tracking the low up into CT....rain all the way to dendrite. This is pretty ridiculous to see these solutions, at 48 hrs out. I guess when you have a small BS low, it is very susceptible to little nuances in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is pretty ridiculous to see these solutions, at 48 hrs out. I guess when you have a small BS low, it is very susceptible to little nuances in the flow. Yeah the model disagreement is pretty stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is a central and southern New England Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Messenger, do you think this may be yet another case of the NAM slow bias at play....just thrown' that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's a good thing the NAM backed off - but I wouldn't be surprised if that came back. The difference there appears to be the orientation of the vorticity relative to the flow, in that DPVA is actually very weak on this run, where the last couple -3 cycles showed much more vorticity impinging on the flow. That kind of abrupt change (discontinuity) across a single run where previous runs were more consistent should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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