cpickett79 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 if this thing comes a little further SE i think with sorta marignal temps in the afternoon....that elevation may now play a bigger factor for Pm accums. would think anyone over 500-600ft would have a nice edge with ratio's during daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 SREF mean take the low between the BM and ACK...brings 850 0C line up to about a HFD-TOL-BOS line before collapsing back SE. QPF looks 0.25-0.50 but closer to 0.50, esp in eastern areas considering parts of CT/RI/SE MA have 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 SREFS are a fair amount SE from 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Crappy time to be on South Padre Island ... 30F with freezing rain and winds gusting to 30 mph. Might even see some snow overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 SREF mean take the low between the BM and ACK...brings 850 0C line up to about a HFD-TOL-BOS line before collapsing back SE. QPF looks 0.25-0.50 but closer to 0.50, esp in eastern areas considering parts of CT/RI/SE MA have 0.50" I would think that most of New England, including SE NE wants this to trend NW and track over ACK... It seems like the models with that ACK solutions are the ones that are most amped and thus getting dynamic cooling and a faster transition to snow. The SE solutions are less amped thus more difficult to get that dynamic cooling thus lingering PL/RA.. no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I would think that most of New England, including SE NE wants this to trend NW and track over ACK... It seems like the models with that ACK solutions are the ones that are most amped and thus getting dynamic cooling and a faster transition to snow. The SE solutions are less amped thus more difficult to get that dynamic cooling thus lingering PL/RA.. no? Yeah...I'm sure SE SNE would be thrilled with an ACK track here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 SREFS are a fair amount SE from 15z NAM through 9hrs I think is indicating what I said ten minutes ago...weaker with the speedmax in eastern texas...should be a faster southern solution this go round/more progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I know mike! he is in my class it is not a heated bucket, it is an approved container on our weather deck. I agree it might be overdone but 40-50:1 is not unheard of in this part of the world. What about mike michaud? He was a met major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this is off topic but check this out about next thursdays potential...just for laughs since I hate Accuweather. no offense to anyone joe bastardi: "An atmospheric apocalypse. In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I am a senior atmospheric sciences major at lyndon state in northeast vermont. We got .12" liquid measure in our precip container after melting and area-wide there was 6-7 inches. We get insane ratios up here with light, low qpf events. Wind and the intensity and the amount of precip play a role. In fact, more qpf often means lower rations and stronger winds compact snow meaning lower ratios. If it's a heated container, you'll lose liquid to evaporation. Also large fluffy flakes with some wind will be prone to missing the container, leading to vastly underestimating water equiv. No doubt some very high ratios, but not quite that high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this is off topic but check this out about next thursdays potential...just for laughs since I hate Accuweather. no offense to anyone joe bastardi: "An atmospheric apocalypse. In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history." Should be in the other thread ... sounds like what Tip posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah...I'm sure SE SNE would be thrilled with an ACK track here. I hope it gets so amped up it wraps maritime air around SNE and right into snowNH's BY (a la blocking pattern of December) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I would think that most of New England, including SE NE wants this to trend NW and track over ACK... It seems like the models with that ACK solutions are the ones that are most amped and thus getting dynamic cooling and a faster transition to snow. The SE solutions are less amped thus more difficult to get that dynamic cooling thus lingering PL/RA.. no? :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 S/w is mooshed on this run of the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Out to 12, NAM is night and day from its 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I would think that most of New England, including SE NE wants this to trend NW and track over ACK... It seems like the models with that ACK solutions are the ones that are most amped and thus getting dynamic cooling and a faster transition to snow. The SE solutions are less amped thus more difficult to get that dynamic cooling thus lingering PL/RA.. no? Yep...actually it would be even better if it went to my west. I'm hoping for a canal cutter so I increase my chances of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Out to 12, NAM is night and day from its 18z run Heading towards the GFS idea even if it ends up only splitting the difference...going to be more progressive...slow bias as usual for the loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yep...actually it would be even better if it went to my west. I'm hoping for a canal cutter so I increase my chances of snow. Why stop there, a HV runner would give you more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 this is off topic but check this out about next thursdays potential...just for laughs since I hate Accuweather. no offense to anyone joe bastardi: "An atmospheric apocalypse. In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history." hot damn that **** should be archived epic thriller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'll take it. Interesting how all of the NCEP spectral models are pretty far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Interesting how all of the NCEP spectral models are pretty far SE. Yeah, it's been like that for like 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM is definitely more positively tilted through 30 hours than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM is definitely more positively tilted through 30 hours than the 18z run. AIT. It's still west of the GFS at any given point, but it's got the same tilt now. In 12 hours it's walked pretty far east each run.... Euro/UK will come around too, same bias keeps playing out of too intense/slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM is definitely more positively tilted through 30 hours than the 18z run. the one time that wiz might actually like a positive trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Two moderate snowstorms followed by an Archambault event Friday, what a week in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 About to have a Matt Noyes moment...the NAM really does suck. Realistic looking setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM has snow breaking out at about 36 hours...Ohio just lost their next snowstorm...NAM obliterated it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the one time that wiz might actually like a positive trof Definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Low forms off the DE/MD coast this run versus over NJ. Similar to the GFS although the GFS is more elongated...sound familiar re the NAM/others bias to a stronger more consolidated low? Compromise we'll probably see the GFS toughen up from the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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