ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18Z GFS very close to a Miller B storm for later Monday into Tuesday. Definitely bares watching. Yeah I've been watching that whole setup for a couple runs now...it definitely looks like something could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Why does the Navy even bother to run that model. Just put it out of its misery. i just know it's a bad sign when it has the "best" storm track more than 1-2 days out meaning we're all still safe from an OTS solution and an inland runner solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18Z GFS very close to a Miller B storm for later Monday into Tuesday. Definitely bares watching. The EURO did that a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ryan's boss on Channel 30 has 3-6 for all of Northern and western CT on north into Mass and extended over to Northern RI..Mix line about IJD SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Why does the Navy even bother to run that model. Just put it out of its misery. It serves as a viable tool as long as you know how to use it....I mean, if you consistently take it at face value, then shame on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ryan's boss on Channel 30 has 3-6 for all of Northern and western CT on north into Mass and extended over to Northern RI..Mix line about IJD SE Sounds perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 i just know it's a bad sign when it has the "best" storm track more than 1-2 days out meaning we're all still safe from an OTS solution and an inland runner solution I think a NOGAPS GFS compromise is in order. Cape Cod climo FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So just to learn here (For Tuesday) - We are looking for the Alberta Clipper/Ohio Valley piece and the ocean storm to Get together correct? Isn't that how the Blizzard of 2005 formed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Western ct just gets crushed next Thursday on Goofus, just crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think a NOGAPS GFS compromise is in order. Cape Cod climo FTW. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 idk...Ukie SLP track looks fairly close to 12z to me. What stands out to me is how much weaker it is the with sfc low. Looks like NYC to E of PVC. The 850 0C still gets a bit into SE NH. It's the Ukie at 18z though so wgas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So just to learn here (For Tuesday) - We are looking for the Alberta Clipper/Ohio Valley piece and the ocean storm to Get together correct? Isn't that how the Blizzard of 2005 formed? could be how the blizzard of 2005 formed, but it's also how 90% of the storms that miss us form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yep Cape lollies and NE CT LOLies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 idk...Ukie SLP track looks fairly close to 12z to me. What stands out to me is how much weaker it is the with sfc low. Looks like NYC to E of PVC. The 850 0C still gets a bit into SE NH. It's the Ukie at 18z though so wgas. 12z run had it going just inland in S CT while 18z run stays S of LI. Not a massive difference, but that would be enough to make it a decent snow event like the 18z NAM brought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Cape lollies and NE CT LOLies? Cape Cod elevation event, Otis may need to call itself for help. With a storm moving this fast it is hard to believe it gets all that far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'd have killed for that....full sun all day, today. We had light snow at school in Lawrence for about 2 hours from 8:15-10:15ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 something's up...that ensemble mean is pretty far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 something's up...that ensemble mean is pretty far SE The NAM/Euro/UK have been consistently too slow with systems coming out of the SW. Been a bias ALL year on virtually every system outside of 36 hours. They're very likely at it again, too wrapped up and we'll see a flatter, faster system. No joking around that's legitimately how I feel. Doesn't mean I expect snow here, probably too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 We had light snow at school in Lawrence for about 2 hours from 8:15-10:15ish yup snowed in stoneham from 6am to 1030 am....nearly an inch fell there. moderate for about an hour or more. nice dentrites ......it was like champagne powder....about 3/4 of an inch of it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The comforting words from ALY's AFD: WE ARE LOOKING AT SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE LOW CENTER HUGGING THE COAST...WITH HIGH PCPN AMOUNTS AND MORE MIXED PCPN...TO SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW CENTERW ELL OFFSHORE...LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS AND ALL SNOW. MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION LOOKS BEST FOR RIGHT NOW AND FITS WELL WITH NCEP FORECASTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO INCLUDE MIXED SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. Sounds good, 4-8, 6-10. More Early week, more late week. Totally buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 something's up...that ensemble mean is pretty far SE It's a hair SE of the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's a hair SE of the 12z GEFS. yeah, but relative to most of the other models it's south...and the QPF shield definintely shrunk further SE relative to 12z GEFS (by a larger margin) too but the BOX seems to be going w/ the colder solution too (changed my forecast (Chestnut Hill, MA)) to all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What a winter, snow Saturday, snow Tuesday, and the final bomb next weekend, the Archie Event, a massive bomb, the pattern changer. Couple weeks to relax, clean up, and clear out, then we await the 4-0-7-0 epic la marchfantasticito. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What a winter, snow Saturday, snow Tuesday, and the final bomb next weekend, the Archie Event, a massive bomb, the pattern changer. Couple weeks to relax, clean up, and clear out, then we await the 4-0-7-0 epic la marchfantasticito. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 mattnoyes Matt Noyes Though no Livestream tonight, a few 4cast thoughts. Looks like a .3-.5" liquid equiv event for Srn NewEng Sat PM/night. Should yield 5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 :weenie: Little dead zone banter, 5-10 sat? Dead serious, not sure why people are not talking about Tuesday, classic LP formation on an artic front, classic stuff, then next weekend, thats a pattern changer, somebody in New England will get 30+ inches of snow over the next 8 days, take that to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What a winter, snow Saturday, snow Tuesday, and the final bomb next weekend, the Archie Event, a massive bomb, the pattern changer. Couple weeks to relax, clean up, and clear out, then we await the 4-0-7-0 epic la marchfantasticito. That Tuesday deal isn't much of anything....essentially a glorified arctic frontal passasge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 mattnoyes Matt Noyes Though no Livestream tonight, a few 4cast thoughts. Looks like a .3-.5" liquid equiv event for Srn NewEng Sat PM/night. Should yield 5"+ I'm still shoveling out from the 15-20 he called for yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That Tuesday deal isn't much of anything....essentially a glorified arctic frontal passasge. I disagree Ray, I think its something much more than a classic arctic front, in fact I think its a region wide 4-8 higher end totals east of 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm still shoveling out from the 15-20 he called for yesterday. That was total.. What did you have total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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