CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 FWIW, the -nao does try to build back at the end of the ensemble runs. We may need it, as the PV pulls west and heights over the se try to build. I wouldn't be shocked if the pattern got ugly in the 11-15 day. However, we can hope that we are on the right side of the gradient like pattern, because the boundary will be nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Actually, very close to 00z. Flush it like a used jimmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Flush it like a used jimmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 More like a few showers on Tuesday...I wouldn't even call that a "storm"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Just think when you're walking with the Mrs. along the sandy shores of boston harbor the next used rubber you stepped on might be freshly pulled from Ray's weenie via Deer Island. Positive thoughts, think positive thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I honestly still would be weary of a soloution like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 BOX AFD likes a track over the islands FWIW - has boston and eastern mass as the p-type battleground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wow, this 18z run of the NAM is over a 50% analog of Dec 9, 2005…. Really. That is a classic NJ Model bomb – I was thinking originally this was a juicy but weak Miller A, but it looks now like a higher latitude detonator. I suppose it makes sense with 586dm height lurking E of Florida and it would be about the only way it could snow here with that circumstance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yeah, looked like it runs just S of LI then up Messenger's fanny. Can't see the temps. Unlike a lot of you apparently nothing runs up Messengers fanny. I know what happens at the GTG's stays at the GTG's like Vegas....just wanted to clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 BOX AFD likes a track over the islands FWIW - has boston and eastern mass as the p-type battleground. If the 18z NAM works out (and I believe it has just as much plausibility as any solution on the table at this point in time), dynamics would instruct an intense p-type gradient nestled snuggly into the somewhere between BOS-PVD and SE Mass... Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Unlike a lot of you apparently nothing runs up Messengers fanny. I know what happens at the GTG's stays at the GTG's like Vegas....just wanted to clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Actually, very close to 00z. Scott, the 18z NAM solution was kind of what I was talking about when after the Euro I mentioned we could see a closer tucked track but with rapidlyt falling heights, still see fairly cool ML temps. Kind of cool to see that play out on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wow, this 18z run of the NAM is over a 50% analog of Dec 9, 2005…. Really. That is a classic NJ Model bomb – I was thinking originally this was a juicy but weak Miller A, but it looks now like a higher latitude detonator. I suppose it makes sense with 586dm height lurking E of Florida and it would be about the only way it could snow here with that circumstance. Are you saying this could be more than a 5-10" event?? I can't believe this storm is only 48-60 hours out either.. this Is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Are you saying this could be more than a 5-10" event?? Dec 9, 2005 had a jackpot of about 16", so slightly more than 50% of that would be about a 9-10" lolli. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 THUNDERSTRUCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Damn nam...I'm posed ta be on my way to the gym now.. seasonal trend FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I am squarely in the warm sector...all I can talk about now is fannies and weiner dogs. Been snowing here all day, death band of 10dbz has dusted everything over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I wanna know what the rev is throwin out for lollies? how bout a 18z nam clown map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I wanna know what the rev is throwin out for lollies? how bout a 18z nam clown map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM Clowns hatin on kevin and east CT in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 THUNDERSTRUCK Great book btw (same author as Isaacs Storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM Clowns hatin on kevin and east CT in general. Lot of mid-level warmth getting into that area on the NAM and best moisture is off to the E and NE by the time it cools off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 ouch lol 0" here at school. nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Are you saying this could be more than a 5-10" event?? I can't believe this storm is only 48-60 hours out either.. this Is awesome It's a wetter snow... Looks like just over 1" of QPF at BOS ...perhaps knifing back along the Pike to about ORH ... at 10:1 ...maybe getting toward 12:1 toward the end of the deal.... 10" would not be impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this has a Miller B feel to it with that intense vort max swinging down off the NJ coast and the reason for this bombing out... that clown map is strange... would have expected more in northeast-mass from this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The differences between the NAM's thermal profile and the GFS thermal profile is pretty crazy here in CT...GFS would be more in the way of snow for at least the northern part of the state with perhaps some mixing...was nice though to see the 18z NAM trend slightly cooler with mid-level temps here...still suggestive of a mix though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this has a Miller B feel to it with that intense vort max swinging down off the NJ coast and the reason for this bombing out... that clown map is strange... would have expected more in northeast-mass from this: Its quick moving and BL temps need to cool on the CP as the storm intensifies...in a sense it "uses" some of the QPF (via high VVs) to cool the column. But I wouldn't take clown maps seriously...there's a reason we call them clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM Clowns hatin on kevin and east CT in general. Already wayyyy east of 12 z..one more run and I'm in on the heavy on the NAM..It's a snow event for 90% of SNE..Lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 HPC's take. The storm overlaps the dates of the maps, so one's day 2, one's day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The differences between the NAM's thermal profile and the GFS thermal profile is pretty crazy here in CT...GFS would be more in the way of snow for at least the northern part of the state with perhaps some mixing...was nice though to see the 18z NAM trend slightly cooler with mid-level temps here...still suggestive of a mix though. This run is a clear 1-3C colder at 850 for ORH and points N - that's pretty significant with a 1.00" qpf wall in the area. It's also cooler for you guys, too. One thing this one won't have is issues between 850 and 700 mb - not that type of system with both mid lvl centers cutting underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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