mattb65 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I honestly think you'll start at S+...then once it cranks...boom...++TSSN 4 to 5"/hr easily. 8"/hr you forgot how the dynamics will change the snow to 20:1 ratios due to extreme lift and crashing 700mb temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 too funny keep it goin' I'd rather read the sincere thoughts of a quality met, but to each their own.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'd rather read the sincere thoughts of a quality met, but to each their own.... lol time to cultivate the sense of humor. he's got the rev down pact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I would find that outcome acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ok, dude.....it's funny for awhile, but.... lol wilmington, ma probably jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol time to cultivate the sense of humor. he's got the rev down pact. Yea, not like I'm one to talk, but I would likely to hear his true thoughts, eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yea, not like I'm one to talk, but I would likely to hear his true thoughts, eventually. You'll get those on Sunday or Monday, along with his forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm thinking at least a portion of the qpf is wasted outside of the interiors and hilltops, which makes for some of the most tricky forecasts. Might as well start with high #s and come down in a good winter. BOS: 3-5" LWM: 4-6" ORH: 7-10" PVD: 3-5" GC: 7-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 3-8"....first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You'll get those on Sunday or Monday, along with his forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You'll get those on Sunday or Monday, along with his forecast . don't measure on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm thinking at least a portion of the qpf is wasted outside of the interiors and hilltops, which makes for some of the most tricky forecasts. Might as well start with high #s and come down in a good winter. BOS: 3-5" LWM: 4-6" ORH: 7-10" PVD: 3-5" GC: 7-10" How about having your forecast include where you live? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 wilmington, ma probably jackpots. No it will be Woodford VT. It is always Woodford VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm thinking at least a portion of the qpf is wasted outside of the interiors and hilltops, which makes for some of the most tricky forecasts. Might as well start with high #s and come down in a good winter. BOS: 3-5" LWM: 4-6" ORH: 7-10" PVD: 3-5" GC: 7-10" CON: 5-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 don't measure on the grass You're supposed to measure at the angle the snow came down at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 How did crazy unc look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM sucks, NAM sucks, NAM sucks, NAM gives me 9", LOVE THE NAM! Now what model is 9" Pete going with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 How did crazy unc look... Amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wow pleasantly surprised by 18Z NAM. Big differences in 500mb vort max on 18Z make the difference, digs further east, catches SLP as it hooks right: 12Z: 18Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I like the direction of correction on the NAM. This run had a weak sheared out northern stream and it still came a bit south of previous runs. Lots more trending to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hmmm 3 cycles worth in this NAM trend where the vorticity maximum is not only a bit more impressive, but passing 1 degree latitude S of LI in a marginally conducive thermal field .... if February? heh, yea - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Amped up. Yeah, looked like it runs just S of LI then up Messenger's fanny. Can't see the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 . . . UPS guy just made my day by delivering me this ever so lovely 20 foot snow rake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 25 for a high....24.0\16, currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hmmm 3 cycles worth in this NAM trend where the vorticity maximum is not only a bit more impressive, but passing 1 degree latitude S of LI in a marginally conducive thermal field .... if February? heh, yea - yeah it really holds the vortmax together nicely...actually as it makes the b-line east from the OV it looks to get a bit stronger. that sort of flies in the face of some of the globals but it's an interesting trend. there's actually a pretty good height crash over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Amped up. It was probably east of 00z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That solution is a varitable bombogensis, albeit lesser in scale, but still potent enough to be a bigger player than most think right now folks - Heads up and we factor in season trends here for snowing at least excuse imaginable from a variety of ways - that solutions is probably a circa 50-60% analog of Dec 9, 2005 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It was probably east of 00z, though. Actually, very close to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hmmm 3 cycles worth in this NAM trend where the vorticity maximum is not only a bit more impressive, but passing 1 degree latitude S of LI in a marginally conducive thermal field .... if February? heh, yea - yes, lol! surprising but it shows what it shows... or should i say it snows where it likes to snow. hope the trend continues / maintains at 0Z and EURO follows. if this holds, GFS had this pegged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I agree with DT. It doesn't mean another KU isn't possible ... specifically, I still believe we have at least one to go in March ... but the persistent pattern that was so conducive to the factory line production of historic storms is over. I agree. Explain the pattern change. Have you not noticed that the storm track in general has shifted a little NW after it rotated SE for a bit? The last storm changed over parts of NH for a time, saturday looks warmer than the average and the euro is a rainstorm Tuesday. At least for the time being the parade of 20" CT snowstorms seems to have ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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