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February 5-6 Storm Threat I


Baroclinic Zone

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I'm thinking at least a portion of the qpf is wasted outside of the interiors and hilltops, which makes for some of the most tricky forecasts. Might as well start with high #s and come down in a good winter.

BOS: 3-5"

LWM: 4-6"

ORH: 7-10"

PVD: 3-5"

GC: 7-10"

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I'm thinking at least a portion of the qpf is wasted outside of the interiors and hilltops, which makes for some of the most tricky forecasts. Might as well start with high #s and come down in a good winter.

BOS: 3-5"

LWM: 4-6"

ORH: 7-10"

PVD: 3-5"

GC: 7-10"

How about having your forecast include where you live? lol

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I'm thinking at least a portion of the qpf is wasted outside of the interiors and hilltops, which makes for some of the most tricky forecasts. Might as well start with high #s and come down in a good winter.

BOS: 3-5"

LWM: 4-6"

ORH: 7-10"

PVD: 3-5"

GC: 7-10"

CON: 5-9"

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Hmmm 3 cycles worth in this NAM trend where the vorticity maximum is not only a bit more impressive, but passing 1 degree latitude S of LI in a marginally conducive thermal field .... if February? heh, yea -

yeah it really holds the vortmax together nicely...actually as it makes the b-line east from the OV it looks to get a bit stronger. that sort of flies in the face of some of the globals but it's an interesting trend. there's actually a pretty good height crash over SNE.

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That solution is a varitable bombogensis, albeit lesser in scale, but still potent enough to be a bigger player than most think right now folks -

Heads up and we factor in season trends here for snowing at least excuse imaginable from a variety of ways - that solutions is probably a circa 50-60% analog of Dec 9, 2005 fwiw.

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Hmmm 3 cycles worth in this NAM trend where the vorticity maximum is not only a bit more impressive, but passing 1 degree latitude S of LI in a marginally conducive thermal field .... if February? heh, yea -

yes, lol! surprising but it shows what it shows... or should i say it snows where it likes to snow.

hope the trend continues / maintains at 0Z and EURO follows.

if this holds, GFS had this pegged.

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I agree with DT.

It doesn't mean another KU isn't possible ... specifically, I still believe we have at least one to go in March ... but the persistent pattern that was so conducive to the factory line production of historic storms is over.

I agree.

Explain the pattern change.

Have you not noticed that the storm track in general has shifted a little NW after it rotated SE for a bit? The last storm changed over parts of NH for a time, saturday looks warmer than the average and the euro is a rainstorm Tuesday. At least for the time being the parade of 20" CT snowstorms seems to have ended.

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