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February 5-6 Storm Threat I


Baroclinic Zone

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You can clearly see the s/w involved just west of Guam. It's already twice as intense as the RUC, and a little more intense than the HRRR. The JMA seems to have a good handle on it.

With such a deep snowpack, cold air over Madagascar, and downsloping effects from Mt Metheun I think the next storm will get caught in a vortex created by Saturday's departing blizzard and bomb out over the Canal right between the two bridges. The Bourne bridge may have raging NW winds while the Sagamore has metal crunching SE winds. Even though 1000/700 mb thicknesses will be warm enough for rain 200 miles NW of the low I expect low level flow and strong dynamics to get it done.

Simply put DT is wrong.

:lol::drunk:

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Bob this is what I saw on FB, so again is using the one day Euro 12 Z run.

This IMAGE should explain WHY this is looking more and more Like a Midwest Pattern. Like I said HERE and on the web site on WED ....the winter pattern that brought us the BIG NE snowstorms is OVER.

Bob this is all I saw

I'm not railing on you Steve, just pointing out that he's not calling for an end to the snows, just the big historical type stuff. I'm taking his stuff with a grain of salt since I think he glosses over our area a lot. I do think he's doing really well with his seasonal call for our area though.

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JB on Saturday

As far the next storm.. I like the mix in the big cities and the heaviest of the snows in elevations above 1000 feet from the Vas northward. This looks like a 3-6 locally 8 inch storm and the axis of best snow may run from close to College station Tx ( 1-3 inches there) to midway between College Park and State College pa, and try as I might I cant find a College town in southern New England to run the axis through. Whats up with that.

He means north of the line that runs from:

College Station, TX/College Park-State Park/Amherst/Waterville.

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Wow.

Many folks ringing the bells of DOOM, and it's only the beginning of February. If I didn't know better, I'd think that you all believe the stupid groundhog crap.

Garth I think it is the "when is the other shoe going to drop" phenomenon. This winer is making its point and we just have to hold on for the ride and trust it. Big Winter, Big Winter Incoming. lol

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I'm not railing on you Steve, just pointing out that he's not calling for an end to the snows, just the big historical type stuff. I'm taking his stuff with a grain of salt since I think he glosses over our area a lot. I do think he's doing really well with his seasonal call for our area though.

I just posted what I saw on FB, did not go to his website agree a relaxation is happening as everyone knew was coming. To imply a pattern is over is to imply it does not return.I disagree wholeheartedly with him on that statement. Thats like saying the pattern was over during the Dec thaw after the Dec KU. He and many others kept saying Jan torch........

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