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February 5-6 Storm Threat I


Baroclinic Zone

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this is not a 6-10 storm

what is it? 3-6?

i don't know how accurate modeled QPF is out 2.5 days but there is a large general area of .7 to .8 along the 128/495 belt of mass.

i would think the areas along the east slope of the berks (1200'+) thru SNH (esp. w/ elevation) could get 6 pretty easily.

over to ORH and up thru Fitchburg seems like the cut off for heavier snow....who knows which way it will side

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I'm thinking a track between MVY and ACK is most likely. The storm will likely intensify more than most operational models are indicating (probably somewhere around 992 mb near MVY/ACK), but I wouldn't expect any bombogenesis like 1/26 or 1/12 because the shortwave is shearing out as it moves ENE and there is a lack of phasing.

Looking for mainly snow from DXR to Woonsocket, RI and BOS north and west at this point. 4-7" from that line to as far north as the Berkshires and southern NH.

Bump for Fork

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Congrats Sox fans on a ring

http://www.mlbtrader..._medium=twitter

Someone post how the euro looks for next week

Old news... and it's not like Pettite would have been much of a factor.

As for Sat. storm, I'm kinda liking where I stand. Most likely a net gain for me, but I don't think I'll see any rain out of this event.

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What was your main rationale in calling for an EPIC winter....

Back in May when it looked very Nina ish, solar signs pointing to a highly negative AO, consistent blocking NAO style, things looked very similar for New England to the past winter only with an ENSO state change. 1970/71 looked very similar to me, so it began. The Hot summer, the epic spring floods, animal activity, nut production all increased my belief. When we had a 95 recurve trop season it was locked in. I really thought Dec Feb March would be prolific . I thought Jan would be typical Nina cold and dry. I am pleased this time my ideas have worked out. I truly believe science sometimes needs some out of the box theories mixed with some folklore real experiences. I think the rest of the season should evolve like Donnnie Baseball lays out. Rebound blocking,March 01 pattern, move the Dec Jan pattern 50-75 miles North. CNE to NNE will get smoked Will to You to Pete to Powdah Freak to Mica.

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7-8, possibly. 10, no

6-10 would verify 7-8.

You are a pro and of course you might be right, but:

- HPC has a .75+ stripe going through se nh and s me

- GYX calling for heavy accumulation possible in the zones. That is defined at 7+ up here

- Joe L on Accuweather says some places in this area might get a food

- 3 of the globals at least, giving .75+ qpf

- 10:1 ratio would be a 6-10 storm especially given the deepening that will pull in cold air and raise ratios in the last part of the storm, possibly.

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Back in May when it looked very Nina ish, solar signs pointing to a highly negative AO, consistent blocking NAO style, things looked very similar for New England to the past winter only with an ENSO state change. 1970/71 looked very similar to me, so it began. The Hot summer, the epic spring floods, animal activity, nut production all increased my belief. When we had a 95 recurve trop season it was locked in. I really thought Dec Feb March would be prolific . I thought Jan would be typical Nina cold and dry. I am pleased this time my ideas have worked out. I truly believe science sometimes needs some out of the box theories mixed with some folklore real experiences. I think the rest of the season should evolve like Donnnie Baseball lays out. Rebound blocking,March 01 pattern, move the Dec Jan pattern 50-75 miles North. CNE to NNE will get smoked Will to You to Pete to Powdah Freak to Mica.

Nice...great call.

I agree RE March.

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Back in May when it looked very Nina ish, solar signs pointing to a highly negative AO, consistent blocking NAO style, things looked very similar for New England to the past winter only with an ENSO state change. 1970/71 looked very similar to me, so it began. The Hot summer, the epic spring floods, animal activity, nut production all increased my belief. When we had a 95 recurve trop season it was locked in. I really thought Dec Feb March would be prolific . I thought Jan would be typical Nina cold and dry. I am pleased this time my ideas have worked out. I truly believe science sometimes needs some out of the box theories mixed with some folklore real experiences. I think the rest of the season should evolve like Donnnie Baseball lays out. Rebound blocking,March 01 pattern, move the Dec Jan pattern 50-75 miles North. CNE to NNE will get smoked Will to You to Pete to Powdah Freak to Mica.

Vin toot!

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