CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Euro solution fits pretty well with my thinking posted earlier in the thread....I think even interior sections may have some ptype issues at least for a brief time...transition to a good snow thump while further S and E, its rain to snow at the end type deal...basically a slightly warmer version of last night's Euro. That's how I see it. I never liked it for cstl areas..even spots a little further inland. Gulf wave, no blocking, and retreating high. Only saving grace is how progressive it is. This is more for you and esp to the north into srn NH and ME. I could even see it a little closer, but I think the track on this run makes complete sense for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I just looked at the RGEM and it was gonna be more like the NAM than the GFS..... Not out to sea anyway....' I'd be happy with that..though we've got time for this to go a bit colder esp with the ens futhur east and colder. i feel good about this esp with the Euro on the colder side ..NAM sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this looks lame and everyone knows it qpf is .5-.75" of low ratio snow (for those who actually stay snow) the baroclinic zone sucks... all the cold air associated with the system is completely modified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 probably has been posted already, but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Right now it spits out .75" for SE MA, SE NH, and SW ME.... I made a 5-8 call to my engineers during lunch. Doc is reinforcing it nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 THX...well I'm in the game.... though I usually lose to NE in 10-11'. Northern fringe of the main precip shield...maybe 0.30 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I just looked at the RGEM and it was gonna be more like the NAM than the GFS..... Not out to sea anyway....' If the Euro ens hold the snowy right inside the BM track today..then we'll see the 00z Euro tick back east and colder tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Right now it spits out .75" for SE MA, SE NH, and SW ME.... That makes sense. GYX was quite gung ho overnight...more gung ho than a .5 qpf event. They said 90% of snow and heavy accum possible, which is 7+ up here as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It does intensify nicely at the end to give areas like ne mass a good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Heck of a lot warmer down here than when I left home today. It was harsh early this morning with the wind, but of course I love it. If the Euro ens hold the snowy right inside the BM track today..then we'll see the 00z Euro tick back east and colder tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hopefully I'm wrong again, but I think this run will farther off with the bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Man the euro is nice up here. Big hit for Nova Scotia. That would be on top of the 16" we got from storm 1&2. Winter started late here but it's started. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Joining the warmer camp though. AWT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That's how I see it. I never liked it for cstl areas..even spots a little further inland. Gulf wave, no blocking, and retreating high. Only saving grace is how progressive it is. This is more for you and esp to the north into srn NH and ME. I could even see it a little closer, but I think the track on this run makes complete sense for now. What do you think, 4-8" out here in the Highlands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this looks lame and everyone knows it qpf is .5-.75" of low ratio snow (for those who actually stay snow) the baroclinic zone sucks... all the cold air associated with the system is completely modified "lame" is a relative term these days. with roofs collapsing and 3 ft on the ground and the prospect for 2 more storms next week...a 6-10 storm is more than lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It does intensify nicely at the end to give areas like ne mass a good thump. Its something we'll have to watch...500 heights fall very quickly with the progressiveness of that trough so the WAA doesn't have a ton of time to really push N...I could see a track that is pretty close but we end up getting still fairly cold ML temps. One of those things that could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That makes sense. GYX was quite gung ho overnight...more gung ho than a .5 qpf event. They said 90% of snow and heavy accum possible, which is 7+ up here as you know. They must be going with a NAM/Euro combo then, But they side with HPC as well, They would not be so gunho throwing the GFS in there, Unless they feel its playing roght now to its bias........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Heights didn't look higher and it looked to be closing the lower a bit slower....that suprised me. Sometimes these lows will ride the baroclinic zone when they are just developing. That's what this did, before it got the boot. If you loop the MSLP, you can see how the low is rather disorganized and doesn't have a clear center until it gets near the Delmarva. It looks like one of those things where I'm 35 and rain, then end as 32F mash potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 "lame" is a relative term these days. with roofs collapsing and 3 ft on the ground and the prospect for 2 more storms next week...a 6-10 storm is more than lame. this is not a 6-10 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Makes more sense synoptically to have this a bit east of where the euro has it. Will be shocked if that doesn't happen tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It does intensify nicely at the end to give areas like ne mass a good thump. I see a net gain imo....but any closer and I'm cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I made a 5-8 call to my engineers during lunch. Doc is reinforcing it nicely. You actually may verify this one.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Its something we'll have to watch...500 heights fall very quickly with the progressiveness of that trough so the WAA doesn't have a ton of time to really push N...I could see a track that is pretty close but we end up getting still fairly cold ML temps. One of those things that could go either way. Soundings were relatively cold above 850 mb. If we can get the s/w to go just south, it may be a nice 3-4 hr thump for areas near BOS. I like those small, but potent VM's those can be quite energetic. My issue is more in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this is not a 6-10 storm Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The whole "Ice will make the snowpack invincible" thing is fast becoming one of my favorite weenie-isms -- right up there with the obsession over ratios, talk about sun angles (we're fast approaching that time now) and "it's nowcast time." i think ice and sleet do help, as does water content. one thing for sure, deep snow can disappear so quickly, its mindblowing it can all be gone with ease even before previous seasons. so i think its too early to be thinking snow will be on the ground later this year than in past years. have to wait till early march really to assess that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Makes more sense synoptically to have this a bit east of where the euro has it. Will be shocked if that doesn't happen tonight I think it makes more sense to have where it is or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this is not a 6-10 storm for whom? what would you call .75 qpf in snh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 May be some sleet to where I am for a couple hours...but it looks like mostly snow...esp N ORH county/Monadnocks/GC. Euro Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Congrats Sox fans on a ring http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/andy-pettitte-to-retire.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter Someone post how the euro looks for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this is not a 6-10 storm we have a bunch of NH and ME posters in here...i wouldn't be shocked if some of those folks where able to pull of more than a half foot out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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