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February 5-6 Storm Threat I


Baroclinic Zone

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just took a look at the GEM QPF...that's pretty impressive as well, with about 20 mm (0.8") for eastern sections

I would expect the qpf numbers in this system to get into the .75-1 range somewhere in ema senh and sme. It is a gulf low with a connection to the gulf and atlantic. Granted not a bomb but deepening as it moves rapidly up the coast.

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our snowpack right now is between 28-33" here. 6-8" this weekend brings us to near 40" depth, at least IMBY, probably a little more than MHT. I think that's all SnowNH was saying earlier today.

just curious, how much snow have you got this year?

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Joining the warmer camp though.

The Euro solution fits pretty well with my thinking posted earlier in the thread....I think even interior sections may have some ptype issues at least for a brief time...transition to a good snow thump while further S and E, its rain to snow at the end type deal...basically a slightly warmer version of last night's Euro.

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The Euro solution fits pretty well with my thinking posted earlier in the thread....I think even interior sections may have some ptype issues at least for a brief time...transition to a good snow thump while further S and E, its rain to snow at the end type deal...basically a slightly warmer version of last night's Euro.

Think I see a net gain...

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I didn't see that nitial hug coming, but at least it wasn't as bad as you thought.

It looked bad at first, until it made that hook. Kind of stinks for the coast. Just hope it doesn't go further west, in your case. Pattern supports a hugger, except for that shearing s/w. That's our hope.

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I would expect the qpf numbers in this system to get into the .75-1 range somewhere in ema senh and sme. It is a gulf low with a connection to the gulf and atlantic. Granted not a bomb but deepening as it moves rapidly up the coast.

Right now it spits out .75" for SE MA, SE NH, and SW ME....

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It looked bad at first, until it made that hook. Kind of stinks for the coast. Just hope it doesn't go further west, in your case. Pattern supports a hugger, except for that shearing s/w. That's our hope.

Heights didn't look higher and it looked to be closing the lower a bit slower....that suprised me.

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They aren't the same at all today so kind of hard to answer that

12Z Euro resembles 6Z NAM... up coast, then right hook, maybe giving coastal SNE a few inches at end

With the lack of antecedent cold and blocking high, this hasn't felt good for a decent snow for coastal SNE, but this winter has pulled lots of unlikely stuff already... we should see 500 vort really dig south on later NAM runs if this has a chance.

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