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February 5-6 Storm Threat I


Baroclinic Zone

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What does everyone think about long term for after next week? Can we try and maintain a gradient pattern in New England..or are going to have a 1-2 week thaw like the rest of the country?

There should be a -PNA developing. PV will be somewhere near Hudson Bay. Hopefully we can get a little -NAO going because that will help keep the jet stream south. It looks gradient like to me, but we may run the risk of a cutter.

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Does 1/4 inch of zr like I had yesterday help avoid alot of compaction and compression? There's now 2 layers of ice in there. One on top of that 26 inch storm..and then another on top of all the storms after that one

The whole "Ice will make the snowpack invincible" thing is fast becoming one of my favorite weenie-isms -- right up there with the obsession over ratios, talk about sun angles (we're fast approaching that time now) and "it's nowcast time."

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I'm thinking a track between MVY and ACK is most likely. The storm will likely intensify more than most operational models are indicating (probably somewhere around 992 mb near MVY/ACK), but I wouldn't expect any bombogenesis like 1/26 or 1/12 because the shortwave is shearing out as it moves ENE and there is a lack of phasing.

Looking for mainly snow from DXR to Woonsocket, RI and BOS north and west at this point. 4-7" from that line to as far north as the Berkshires and southern NH.

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GFS is a snow bomb even in SE MA/interior SE MA (not here or Cape cod though)

It's trending colder and I long the elongation east which has been a feature of every low this winter. NAM is probably on heavy, heavy crack.

I like the idea of the GFS, toss the NAM. It doesn't fit with the evolution of almost every coastal this year, no reason to think this one will be any different.

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Wow, to the 968 MB low passing over Boston Light next Thursday (GFS)

I was hoping this was going to be a Friday event as I fly back from London on Thursday.

With a falling NAO would the correction vector be a little more offshore though?

Looked at the GFS, wow! Huge high, low in the gulf, piece of energy coming down from Central Canada, fresh arctic air antecedent and more plunging in I think? Looks like the MA is back in the game on this one. Just wow wow wow. And before that event we continue our catching up up here on Saturday and Mon-Tues.

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There should be a -PNA developing. PV will be somewhere near Hudson Bay. Hopefully we can get a little -NAO going because that will help keep the jet stream south. It looks gradient like to me, but we may run the risk of a cutter.

Sounds like a lather rinse repeat of this past 10 days. Unreal...from a Neg NAO that produces even up here to a gradient, back to a -NAO. Does this winter go like this straight thru to April?

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I was hoping this was going to be a Friday event as I fly back from London on Thursday.

With a falling NAO would the correction vector be a little more offshore though?

Looked at the GFS, wow! Huge high, low in the gulf, piece of energy coming down from Central Canada, fresh arctic air antecedent and more plunging in I think? Looks like the MA is back in the game on this one. Just wow wow wow. And before that event we continue our catching up up here on Saturday and Mon-Tues.

Not sure about that.

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I'm thinking a track between MVY and ACK is most likely. The storm will likely intensify more than most operational models are indicating (probably somewhere around 992 mb near MVY/ACK), but I wouldn't expect any bombogenesis like 1/26 or 1/12 because the shortwave is shearing out as it moves ENE and there is a lack of phasing.

Looking for mainly snow from DXR to Woonsocket, RI and BOS north and west at this point. 4-7" from that line to as far north as the Berkshires and southern NH.

You the man Justin

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