Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If a solution like the Euro panned out, you'd probably have more issues than a place like Ray's actually. Mid-level temps are warm down in CT. That would be a snow thump on the euro with elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Prey for the Geenland Block and NAO to flex its' muscles again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 What does everyone think about long term for after next week? Can we try and maintain a gradient pattern in New England..or are going to have a 1-2 week thaw like the rest of the country? There should be a -PNA developing. PV will be somewhere near Hudson Bay. Hopefully we can get a little -NAO going because that will help keep the jet stream south. It looks gradient like to me, but we may run the risk of a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Does 1/4 inch of zr like I had yesterday help avoid alot of compaction and compression? There's now 2 layers of ice in there. One on top of that 26 inch storm..and then another on top of all the storms after that one The whole "Ice will make the snowpack invincible" thing is fast becoming one of my favorite weenie-isms -- right up there with the obsession over ratios, talk about sun angles (we're fast approaching that time now) and "it's nowcast time." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm thinking a track between MVY and ACK is most likely. The storm will likely intensify more than most operational models are indicating (probably somewhere around 992 mb near MVY/ACK), but I wouldn't expect any bombogenesis like 1/26 or 1/12 because the shortwave is shearing out as it moves ENE and there is a lack of phasing. Looking for mainly snow from DXR to Woonsocket, RI and BOS north and west at this point. 4-7" from that line to as far north as the Berkshires and southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That would be a snow thump on the euro with elevation With some sleet down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS is a snow bomb even in SE MA/interior SE MA (not here or Cape cod though) It's trending colder and I long the elongation east which has been a feature of every low this winter. NAM is probably on heavy, heavy crack. I like the idea of the GFS, toss the NAM. It doesn't fit with the evolution of almost every coastal this year, no reason to think this one will be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wow, to the 968 MB low passing over Boston Light next Thursday (GFS) I was hoping this was going to be a Friday event as I fly back from London on Thursday. With a falling NAO would the correction vector be a little more offshore though? Looked at the GFS, wow! Huge high, low in the gulf, piece of energy coming down from Central Canada, fresh arctic air antecedent and more plunging in I think? Looks like the MA is back in the game on this one. Just wow wow wow. And before that event we continue our catching up up here on Saturday and Mon-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 There should be a -PNA developing. PV will be somewhere near Hudson Bay. Hopefully we can get a little -NAO going because that will help keep the jet stream south. It looks gradient like to me, but we may run the risk of a cutter. Sounds like a lather rinse repeat of this past 10 days. Unreal...from a Neg NAO that produces even up here to a gradient, back to a -NAO. Does this winter go like this straight thru to April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Thursday is my birthday, Ginx La Epic cold storm of 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 With some sleet down there. Possibly..but certainly none of this rain nonsense some are tossing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I was hoping this was going to be a Friday event as I fly back from London on Thursday. With a falling NAO would the correction vector be a little more offshore though? Looked at the GFS, wow! Huge high, low in the gulf, piece of energy coming down from Central Canada, fresh arctic air antecedent and more plunging in I think? Looks like the MA is back in the game on this one. Just wow wow wow. And before that event we continue our catching up up here on Saturday and Mon-Tues. Not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Thursday is my birthday, Ginx La Epic cold storm of 11 1717 redux... You probably were alive in 1717 in a prior life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm thinking a track between MVY and ACK is most likely. The storm will likely intensify more than most operational models are indicating (probably somewhere around 992 mb near MVY/ACK), but I wouldn't expect any bombogenesis like 1/26 or 1/12 because the shortwave is shearing out as it moves ENE and there is a lack of phasing. Looking for mainly snow from DXR to Woonsocket, RI and BOS north and west at this point. 4-7" from that line to as far north as the Berkshires and southern NH. You the man Justin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Fwiw - 0z Euro for ORH SAT 12Z 05-FEB -9.6 -2.4 1014 81 82 0.00 549 537 SAT 18Z 05-FEB -0.8 -2.7 1009 82 100 0.02 546 538 SUN 00Z 06-FEB -2.0 -0.9 1001 96 100 0.28 540 539 SUN 06Z 06-FEB -3.7 -3.6 1001 94 54 0.32 536 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Haven't really looked at anything to be honest. Sort of storm fatigued. lol lol me too, a little bit. Between the semester starting up and the active storm train, my brain is taking a beating. Boys will be crying for their Mommas........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Boys will be crying for their Mommas........... What was your main rationale in calling for an EPIC winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 WCVB already got a map out thought it was a little bullish having the 3-6 line going into southern RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wank has 3-6 for PYM to southern TOL cty thru HFD stripe of 4-8 from the pike to Dom's area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wank has 3-6 for PYM to southern TOL cty thru HFD stripe of 4-8 from the pike to Dom's area N of pike ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wank has 3-6 for PYM to southern TOL cty thru HFD stripe of 4-8 from the pike to Dom's area I'd run with 3-6" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm not a fan of the SREFS being somewhat NW at this point (low over outer cape/ACK) looks like 2m temps are >0C inside 128 at the height of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 just took a look at the GEM QPF...that's pretty impressive as well, with about 20 mm (0.8") for eastern sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 just took a look at the GEM QPF...that's pretty impressive as well, with about 20 mm (0.8") for eastern sections Yeah it's a fairly fast mover..but will thump us for 6-8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm not a fan of the SREFS being somewhat NW at this point (low over outer cape/ACK) looks like 2m temps are >0C inside 128 at the height of the event SREFs are terrible at this range. -- GGEM/GFS look to rawdog Bob and that area for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This run maybe a hair less amped than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro could be ugly. It has that hugging look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro could be ugly. This run maybe a hair less amped than 00z ugly in the sense of OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro could be ugly. I wouldn't have thought that...crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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