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February 5-6 Storm Threat I


Baroclinic Zone

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NAM may have some advantage with respect to appropriately amplifying downstream ridging in accordance with convective latent heat release. However, one of the differences between the NAM and GFS is the amplitude of the northern stream s/w which acts to squash the southern stream disturbance a bit on the GFS. The northern stream amplitude has been a common seasonal trend.

Definitely would lean toward the Euro, which incorporates both these factors to some extent. Though I might add a bit more NAM in the mix with a more Nina-esque feel.

I was going to make the same point, how many times in a row has the n stream come in more amped as it crosses into conus. On nam it is super weak and sheared out. Gotta favor the globals but watch the strength of the n stream as we progress.

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that's about where'd i'd expect it to be. LOL.

i'll be pretty surprised if this is over the BM. who knows though. maybe the NAM is overplaying the vortmax.

This thing naturally wants to go over the Cape, but the only saving grace is the vortmax trying to shear out, and move northeast. Every indicator points to this as a cstl hugger, except for that. Hopefully the globals are right, but part of me still thinks the GFS is too far east. We'll see if the euro budges. Maybe the GFS is right..who knows.

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