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February 5-6 Storm Threat I


Baroclinic Zone

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  On 2/3/2011 at 4:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully the euro isn't over MVY..lol.At least the solutions aren't trending west, yet.

hopefully this is an event that delievers snow to the coastal plain....GFS like would be perfect

that will give me more space for the early week event

very interested in the event for next weekend after that

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  On 2/3/2011 at 5:56 PM, Boston-winter08 said:

just took a look at the GEM QPF...that's pretty impressive as well, with about 20 mm (0.8") for eastern sections

I would expect the qpf numbers in this system to get into the .75-1 range somewhere in ema senh and sme. It is a gulf low with a connection to the gulf and atlantic. Granted not a bomb but deepening as it moves rapidly up the coast.

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  On 2/3/2011 at 5:09 PM, BIrving said:

our snowpack right now is between 28-33" here. 6-8" this weekend brings us to near 40" depth, at least IMBY, probably a little more than MHT. I think that's all SnowNH was saying earlier today.

just curious, how much snow have you got this year?

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  On 2/3/2011 at 6:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

Joining the warmer camp though.

The Euro solution fits pretty well with my thinking posted earlier in the thread....I think even interior sections may have some ptype issues at least for a brief time...transition to a good snow thump while further S and E, its rain to snow at the end type deal...basically a slightly warmer version of last night's Euro.

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  On 2/3/2011 at 6:07 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The Euro solution fits pretty well with my thinking posted earlier in the thread....I think even interior sections may have some ptype issues at least for a brief time...transition to a good snow thump while further S and E, its rain to snow at the end type deal...basically a slightly warmer version of last night's Euro.

Think I see a net gain...

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  On 2/3/2011 at 6:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't see that nitial hug coming, but at least it wasn't as bad as you thought.

It looked bad at first, until it made that hook. Kind of stinks for the coast. Just hope it doesn't go further west, in your case. Pattern supports a hugger, except for that shearing s/w. That's our hope.

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  On 2/3/2011 at 6:07 PM, mahk_webstah said:

I would expect the qpf numbers in this system to get into the .75-1 range somewhere in ema senh and sme. It is a gulf low with a connection to the gulf and atlantic. Granted not a bomb but deepening as it moves rapidly up the coast.

Right now it spits out .75" for SE MA, SE NH, and SW ME....

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  On 2/3/2011 at 6:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

It looked bad at first, until it made that hook. Kind of stinks for the coast. Just hope it doesn't go further west, in your case. Pattern supports a hugger, except for that shearing s/w. That's our hope.

Heights didn't look higher and it looked to be closing the lower a bit slower....that suprised me.

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  On 2/3/2011 at 6:04 PM, CT Blizz said:

They aren't the same at all today so kind of hard to answer that

12Z Euro resembles 6Z NAM... up coast, then right hook, maybe giving coastal SNE a few inches at end

With the lack of antecedent cold and blocking high, this hasn't felt good for a decent snow for coastal SNE, but this winter has pulled lots of unlikely stuff already... we should see 500 vort really dig south on later NAM runs if this has a chance.

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