Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Only 3-4 days out. Models suggesting an interior snow threat with a mixed bag along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I like that the 18z NOGAPS takes this 700 miles SE of ACK...good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Would be snow for most Jerry. 0c 850's get up to abount GON/TAN/PYM. 0c 2m temps get up to about PVD/ Marcshfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I like that the 18z NOGAPS takes this 700 miles SE of ACK...good sign Sounds like the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'll take the 12z Euro FTW. Expect the GFS to tick, tick, tick back to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'll take the 12z Euro FTW. Expect the GFS to tick, tick, tick back to the NW. It's possible but the move by models today has been E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Eh, it didn't really hurt. Just hardened now. I actually think the hardened snowpack has kept many of us near the coast and to the south very close to the interior. IOW, not much compaction due to the wet snow events that we've had. Man, I think I can get used to a dose of sleet every now and then....what a bullet proof pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Man, I think I can get used to a dose of sleet every now and then....what a bullet proof pack. True snowpack, NNE style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 BOX .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGHLIGHTS... *ANOTHER SNOW/RAIN STORM EXPECTED SATURDAY *POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MONDAY OR TUESDAY MODEL ANALYSIS... OVERALL FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM /THRU SAT MORNING/. THE OTHER MAIN DIFFERENCE INVOLVES THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A LOW FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE MARITIMES BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. THE 02/00Z ECMWF BRINGS A COASTAL STORM UP ACROSS THE BENCHMARK-40 N/70 W TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS IN THIS FORECAST. THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS STORM. DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES...LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL YIELD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8C SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN WHEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH THE GFS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EXACT TIMING OF THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW COLD LOW TEMPERATURES GET FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE MIDNIGHT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE CHILLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE COAST SATURDAY PASSING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THIS TRACK SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Very fast moving system...probably hard to get more than 8-10" out of this type of system. No high to north but rather sliding east...definitely favors interior, but coast can still see snow if it takes a perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Very fast moving system...probably hard to get more than 8-10" out of this type of system. No high to north but rather sliding east...definitely favors interior, but coast can still see snow if it takes a perfect track. I think the more progreesive this system is the better off coastal areas will be. Anything phased/wrapped up will bring lots of warm air in. Looking at the 500 maps it looks like there is a northern stream kicker that does not allow this thing to ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Man, I think I can get used to a dose of sleet every now and then....what a bullet proof pack. Yeah, I like the fact that even a 60 mph wind wouldn't make a dent in this cement. I hate bare spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ensembles take it near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I like that the 18z NOGAPS takes this 700 miles SE of ACK...good sign cape cod would probably still change to rain. I like this map. east coastal ma is snow, non snow inland. funkiest map I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Todays runs fringe us here we would need a couple ticks west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think the more progreesive this system is the better off coastal areas will be. Anything phased/wrapped up will bring lots of warm air in. Looking at the 500 maps it looks like there is a northern stream kicker that does not allow this thing to ride up the coast. Yes it definitely keeps it moving more ENE as it nears SNE...so its actually a good thing that its progressive. It would ride up the Hudson or something if it was a slower flow. It reminds me a bit of 1/23/06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Todays runs fringe us here we would need a couple ticks west There is room for that, but also...this is a progressive little guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yes it definitely keeps it moving more ENE as it nears SNE...so its actually a good thing that its progressive. It would ride up the Hudson or something if it was a slower flow. It reminds me a bit of 1/23/06 I remember that. You guys got like 8-9" right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I remember that. You guys got like 8-9" right? Yeah I think I had a little over 9" IIRC....most of it fell in 3-4 hours. We were snowing at 2-3 inches per hour that morning in the 8-10am time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think the more progreesive this system is the better off coastal areas will be. Anything phased/wrapped up will bring lots of warm air in. Looking at the 500 maps it looks like there is a northern stream kicker that does not allow this thing to ride up the coast. It just seems like whenever there should be a reprieve, something falls into place in order to intervene.....I'm not sure there has ever been such a season. Tremendous luck, thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 8" of wet snow caked to everything on Saturday afternoon ruining everyones plans would be just what I would like. 3' snow pack FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 CIPS says this storm is a good analog too http://www.meteo.psu...2007/us1231.php I have bad memories of that storm...my worst forecast bust of the '07-'08 season...only black mark that season. Trended into a sneaky warm layer that caused sleet to mix in. Also the system had a cruddy precip shield that got worse as it neared us and qpf busted. Def the opposite of 1/23/06 which was a very healthy looking precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 8" of wet snow caked to everything on Saturday afternoon ruining everyones plans would be just what I would like. 3' snow pack FTW. I know that I keep saying this, but somthing has to give....another period characterized by violently negative polar indecies is in the works, yet we keep finding ways to snow during the "reload" phase......one of these has to be a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i like the analog that occurred exactly 10 years ago to the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This looks like a classic fairfield cty 3-6 inch snow, perhaps starting as some mix then quickly to snow. Looking forward to a nice mod snowstorm, no issues, it will be nizzzzze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I know that I keep saying this, but somthing has to give....another period characterized by violently negative polar indecies is in the works, yet we keep finding ways to snow in the "reload" phase......one of these has to be a rainer. Im thinking April 15th. Heavy Rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i like the analog that occurred exactly 10 years ago to the day That storm still might be the best looking CCB over that large an area in the past 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yes it definitely keeps it moving more ENE as it nears SNE...so its actually a good thing that its progressive. It would ride up the Hudson or something if it was a slower flow. It reminds me a bit of 1/23/06 Did NE CT get like 6-8 in that if IRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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