usedtobe Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Are you WX1996? My guess is yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 What's the analog years that analog to 73/74 and how well did those years match to what happened in 73/73? I don't mean to single out Lee here, whom I am sure was just trying to look for a match. However, when did this analog theory become a viable forecast? Okay, so 73/74 looks some what like the pattern now. Does that mean the same atmospheric interactions will happen? How well did analogs work out last year? Did they foretell the quiet spell in late January or the almost history snow events in February? My point is that the winter patterns of past years can only tell us so much and does not mean the same results of that year will happen this year. Regardless, I applaud Lee for the research. 1973-74 is probably one of the best, if not the best, overall match to this year overall. Thats my take on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 1973-74 is probably one of the best, if not the best, overall match to this year overall. Thats my take on it. Yes agreed. The strength of this La Niña doesn't leave many analogs to choose from. 73-74 didn't have a -NAO, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Yes agreed. The strength of this La Niña doesn't leave many analogs to choose from. 73-74 didn't have a -NAO, however. This year being a +QBO, perhaps thats a signal of what to expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 This year being a +QBO, perhaps thats a signal of what to expect? We'll see, the NAO hasn't broken down yet, but the +QBO/low solar does signal a loss of blocking as the PV develops fully. We'll see if that happens as we get deeper into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Are you WX1996? Better known as The Weather Psychic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Better known as The Weather Psychic Yes indeed. With predictions from 1 month out common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Oh yeah, I recall reading one of his posts. Was he at all accurate? It snowed at my place, so thats all I care about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Road Runner Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Better known as The Weather Psychic Yes indeed. With predictions from 1 month out common. Yeah pretty cool. Sadly it will be the last call, I decided that with EUSWX on life support it really is time to understand that spending time on weather forums is a waste of time, especially with what I have waiting in my future. It is a waste of time not on creating justifiable patterns but on proving that they work to the people like yourself. A person's posts and a person's efforts are simply gone to the constant cyber trolling, and there is just no way in hell you are going to get anywhere with this bull**** (even when there is extra time around the holidays and the weekends). On side note, it is pretty amazing how exact every call is. It is visible from the most recent back to back winter events--The two times this winter that we had a wintry mix in the area were both exactly on the next morning of my forecasted nor'easter potential. The first time was on November 8th in the morning hours (after the November 7th call), and the most recent one was today on November 25th around noon (corresponding to my November 24th nor'easter call). Every other call is falling into place, a truly fantastic theory I put together in 2008. p.s. Now the wintry mix events both had similar "cold air" in place but one was associated with a coastal mess and this most recent one is associated with a warm front . Here are the posted dates again (for some of those future dates it is amazing to see similar events unfold on the models): Current and Future Dates Reissued on November 12th, 2010 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1) Warm-up for the East: Oct.23/ Nov.9/ Nov.25-26/ Dec.12/ Dec.26/ [ This period might feature above average temperatures ] 2) Prefrontal Severe Weather & Cold Front: (NEW!) Oct.27-28/ Nov.14-Nov.15/ Nov.30-Dec.1/ Dec.14-15/ Dec.30-31/ [ Test Case Result: La Niña induced Severe Weather Threat, which can occur with the prefrontal one day before the cold front] 3) Upper Low or Pattern Changer: Oct.30/ Nov.17/ Dec.3/ Dec.17/Jan.2/[/s] [ Test Case Result: MJO induced Nor'easter] 4)Initial Upper Wave & Surface Cold Front: Nov.4/ Nov.22/ Dec.8-9/ Dec.22/ [ Test Case Result: Leads to a stalled surface front with precipitation in the vicinity ] 5)*Significant Trough & Arctic Chill/ Nor'easter Potential: Nov.6-7/ Nov.24/ Dec.10-11/ Dec.24-25/ [ Test Case Result(s): Arctic Chill and Clipper Like System(s); Nor'easter development has occurred ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I happened to enjoy your EUSWX posts wx1996 or roadrunner. If you cant take a little heat, then maybe forecasting is not for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Road Runner Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 I happened to enjoy your EUSWX posts wx1996 or roadrunner. If you cant take a little heat, then maybe forecasting is not for you. I am the guy who is known to take the heat on euswx, and sadly I am the only guy who lasted as long (ask any admin). A smart person would have taken the hint after the first ban. I guess I finally matured. If I want something to happen with my weather forecasting, the best way to get it is to be out there in the spotlight. At least for now. I will still lurk around and read the posts made by all of the talented mets and posters here (especially the ones I am jealous of). Ha, you know you might be right. I can't take the heat; I got so much left to do in this life.Happy Thanksgiving btw. Maybe those looking for snow in December will finally get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 Yeah pretty cool. Sadly it will be the last call, I decided that with EUSWX on life support it really is time to understand that spending time on weather forums is a waste of time, especially with what I have waiting in my future. It is a waste of time not on creating justifiable patterns but on proving that they work to the people like yourself. A person's posts and a person's efforts are simply gone to the constant cyber trolling, and there is just no way in hell you are going to get anywhere with this bull**** (even when there is extra time around the holidays and the weekends). On side note, it is pretty amazing how exact every call is. It is visible from the most recent back to back winter events--The two times this winter that we had a wintry mix in the area were both exactly on the next morning of my forecasted nor'easter potential. The first time was on November 8th in the morning hours (after the November 7th call), and the most recent one was today on November 25th around noon (corresponding to my November 24th nor'easter call). Every other call is falling into place, a truly fantastic theory I put together in 2008. p.s. Now the wintry mix events both had similar "cold air" in place but one was associated with a coastal mess and this most recent one is associated with a warm front . Here are the posted dates again (for some of those future dates it is amazing to see similar events unfold on the models): Current and Future Dates Reissued on November 12th, 2010 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1) Warm-up for the East: Oct.23/ Nov.9/ Nov.25-26/ Dec.12/ Dec.26/ [ This period might feature above average temperatures ] 2) Prefrontal Severe Weather & Cold Front: (NEW!) Oct.27-28/ Nov.14-Nov.15/ Nov.30-Dec.1/ Dec.14-15/ Dec.30-31/ [ Test Case Result: La Niña induced Severe Weather Threat, which can occur with the prefrontal one day before the cold front] 3) Upper Low or Pattern Changer: Oct.30/ Nov.17/ Dec.3/ Dec.17/Jan.2/[/s] [ Test Case Result: MJO induced Nor'easter] 4)Initial Upper Wave & Surface Cold Front: Nov.4/ Nov.22/ Dec.8-9/ Dec.22/ [ Test Case Result: Leads to a stalled surface front with precipitation in the vicinity ] 5)*Significant Trough & Arctic Chill/ Nor'easter Potential: Nov.6-7/ Nov.24/ Dec.10-11/ Dec.24-25/ [ Test Case Result(s): Arctic Chill and Clipper Like System(s); Nor'easter development has occurred ] What up with the colored text? Makes me squint What methods do you use to make your forecasts? Seems like you definitely have something going... I'd encourage you to continue posting, you'll always have SOME spare time on your hands, even if it be once a month. No need to quit the forum just because people give you crap, we've all gone through it. Either they're haters, or they do it because they want to make a name for themselves...or both! Just don't confuse logical/worthwhile questioning of your methods from worthless bashing. If you can read social cues, you're fine. If you want to leave, I'll miss your posts, and I'm sure others will too. Happy thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Free access AccuWx is super vague in description, but sort of onboard. http://www.accuweath...snowstorm-1.asp I like a Westward moving surface low with heaviest snow well West of the center. Not that I think it is accurate, just that it would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 Looks like some areas N/W even in cites could see a brief shot of snow Wed when the cold front roars through... Possible big T-storms than quick shot of snow before cold winds roar in, interesting day in the least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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