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Long Range Pattern Change?


isnice

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12z GFS shows the warmer weather only lasting 10 days or so

This is the thing...what is your definition of warmer weather? As I suspected, the GFS has pulled back on its massive warm-up idea from about a week ago, and now it looks like we go from cold from the middle of this week until next week, moderate slightly with a storm threat, and then go into a pattern of "warmer weather" than we're having this week but I'm not sure how warm it is for us. South of here from the SE to lower mid-atlantic this is definitely a bonafide warm up. For us all I see is moderation with basically average temps.

edit: 18z GFS has below average temps basically through 240 with a ridge in the central US building in. Would obviously lead to a transiently warmer couple days but this doesn't look like anything long lasting. Also it was around this time-frame that the GFS was seeing a warm-up when this thread was started...the date originally set for the warm up? around valentines day. Now it looks like we make it until at least the 17th or 18th before that ridge in the central US may set in. It remains to be seen if the GFS will keep pushing back this potential warm-up

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Yes, I noticed this as well. GFS keeps advertising warm up somewhere out around 300 hrs.( :arrowhead: ) but as that time period keeps approaching it keeps getting pushed back it seems

In other winters, it would have been the cold snaps getting pushed back lol.

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In other winters, it would have been the cold snaps getting pushed back lol.

Exactly, I always hated that. I don't know, I just don't think we can quite put winter to rest yet this year. I wouldn't be surprised if something pops up sooner then everyone is thinking, and before I get a thousand replies yes I'm aware the pattern sucks.

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EC has a nice clipper bomb off the coast D6 (14th) into D7 (15th) with a high to the N. Could be a nice quick hit for NYC and Northward, esp for Boston:

post-230-0-73817200-1297190676.gif

post-230-0-77940500-1297190675.gif

Just a hair too far south but not by much. It definitely needs to be watched. It renews the cold and may introduce further possibilities down the road or just delay the short-lived warm-up.

WX/PT

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06Z DGEX, 12Z GFS and 12Z GEFS all show a track just north in the 132-144 time frame, GEFS looks best and that is still north and not big on qpf -

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif

I don't see the "big warmup" in the models anymore, at least not in the Northeast. Getting back to around normal temps later next week but that's about it.

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We should be normal to above from Sunday on except for a cold shot midweek as per the GFS. Otherwise it's pretty mild following that.

06Z DGEX, 12Z GFS and 12Z GEFS all show a track just north in the 132-144 time frame, GEFS looks best and that is still north and not big on qpf -

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif

I don't see the "big warmup" in the models anymore, at least not in the Northeast. Getting back to around normal temps later next week but that's about it.

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