isnice Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z GFS shows the warmer weather only lasting 10 days or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 lol.......go outside, warmer weather is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z GFS shows the warmer weather only lasting 10 days or so This is the thing...what is your definition of warmer weather? As I suspected, the GFS has pulled back on its massive warm-up idea from about a week ago, and now it looks like we go from cold from the middle of this week until next week, moderate slightly with a storm threat, and then go into a pattern of "warmer weather" than we're having this week but I'm not sure how warm it is for us. South of here from the SE to lower mid-atlantic this is definitely a bonafide warm up. For us all I see is moderation with basically average temps. edit: 18z GFS has below average temps basically through 240 with a ridge in the central US building in. Would obviously lead to a transiently warmer couple days but this doesn't look like anything long lasting. Also it was around this time-frame that the GFS was seeing a warm-up when this thread was started...the date originally set for the warm up? around valentines day. Now it looks like we make it until at least the 17th or 18th before that ridge in the central US may set in. It remains to be seen if the GFS will keep pushing back this potential warm-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Todays 12z GFS wheres the warmup = thru 180 hrs there is no real warm up!!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Todays 12z GFS wheres the warmup = thru 180 hrs there is no real warm up!!! Rossi It comes at around hr 240. BTW, PV just misses the phase with the southern stream at hrs 90-96. At least something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It comes at around hr 240. BTW, PV just misses the phase with the southern stream at hrs 90-96. At least something to keep an eye on. Hopefully that warm up is delayed AND denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Todays 12z GFS wheres the warmup = thru 180 hrs there is no real warm up!!! Rossi Yes, I noticed this as well. GFS keeps advertising warm up somewhere out around 300 hrs.( ) but as that time period keeps approaching it keeps getting pushed back it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm suprised nobody is giving much attention to the GFS around hr 96. It'd breaking off a piece of the PV and sending it south, just missing the phase by about 12hrs. I know 12hrs is alot but the energy is dropping in much more than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yes, I noticed this as well. GFS keeps advertising warm up somewhere out around 300 hrs.( ) but as that time period keeps approaching it keeps getting pushed back it seems In other winters, it would have been the cold snaps getting pushed back lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I hope this warm up certainly is something, I've been done with Winter since December 27th so imagine how I must feel lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 In other winters, it would have been the cold snaps getting pushed back lol. Exactly, I always hated that. I don't know, I just don't think we can quite put winter to rest yet this year. I wouldn't be surprised if something pops up sooner then everyone is thinking, and before I get a thousand replies yes I'm aware the pattern sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 EC has a nice clipper bomb off the coast D6 (14th) into D7 (15th) with a high to the N. Could be a nice quick hit for NYC and Northward, esp for Boston: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 EC has a nice clipper bomb off the coast D6 (14th) into D7 (15th) with a high to the N. Could be a nice quick hit for NYC and Northward, esp for Boston: Just a hair too far south but not by much. It definitely needs to be watched. It renews the cold and may introduce further possibilities down the road or just delay the short-lived warm-up. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Correction--Fatigue induced post: Hair too far NORTH, not south. WX/PT Just a hair too far south but not by much. It definitely needs to be watched. It renews the cold and may introduce further possibilities down the road or just delay the short-lived warm-up. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 06Z DGEX, 12Z GFS and 12Z GEFS all show a track just north in the 132-144 time frame, GEFS looks best and that is still north and not big on qpf - http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif I don't see the "big warmup" in the models anymore, at least not in the Northeast. Getting back to around normal temps later next week but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 We should be normal to above from Sunday on except for a cold shot midweek as per the GFS. Otherwise it's pretty mild following that. 06Z DGEX, 12Z GFS and 12Z GEFS all show a track just north in the 132-144 time frame, GEFS looks best and that is still north and not big on qpf - http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif I don't see the "big warmup" in the models anymore, at least not in the Northeast. Getting back to around normal temps later next week but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 All hail the mighty long-range GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 0z GFS looks really nice in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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