Long Range Pattern Change?

[Kaner587]

Euro now pointing towards this pattern shift as well. Maybe the long range GFS should be lended a little more credit than what it's given in determining pattern changes.

It appears that while we get away from below normal temps, we merely moderate maybe only getting into the mid 40's..I really doubt we do any better than that, and maybe after a couple days and either an arctic cold front or cutter we're right back into the ice-box. 4-7 days is merely a reloading as opposed to a true pattern change.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro now pointing towards this pattern shift as well. Maybe the long range GFS should be lended a little more credit than what it's given in determining pattern changes.

i dont see it....but im looking at freebie EC maps. care to post?

[isnice]

i dont see it....but im looking at freebie EC maps. care to post?

I'm too lazy lol. Go to the PSU website and look at the 240 hour Euro map. It just doesn't look good for the east coast.

You also forgot to mention the PNA. Have you seen it? It's been + all winter long. It's about to take a nose dive into -3 territory.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I'm too lazy lol. Go to the PSU website and look at the 240 hour Euro map. It just doesn't look good for the east coast.

You also forgot to mention the PNA. Have you seen it? It's been + all winter long. It's about to take a nose dive into -3 territory.

hasnt really been +pna. in fact, beginning of winter pna was unfavorable but obv if the blocking is there this winter wants to spin bombs along the EC.

[isnice]

not really. and one can argue that we had our best snows with it either negative or neutral.

Our second best storm of the year happened when the PNA was at +1. Our best storm happened when the PNA was neutral, but it was accompanied by a negative trending neutral NAO. None of our big storms this year happened with a -PNA, and normally a -PNA at -3 is not helping us. Don't see what you're trying to prove here...

I don't think the negative pattern will last through the end of winter. Maybe just a week or so, but a pattern change nonetheless.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Our second best storm of the year happened when the PNA was at +1. Our best storm happened when the PNA was neutral, but it was accompanied by a negative trending neutral NAO. None of our big storms this year happened with a -PNA, and normally a -PNA at -3 is not helping us. Don't see what you're trying to prove here...

I don't think the negative pattern will last through the end of winter. Maybe just a week or so, but a pattern change nonetheless.

what im trying to prove is that the pna really hasnt had that big of an impact.which it hasnt.

[isnice]

what im trying to prove is that the pna really hasnt had that big of an impact.which it hasnt.

It has actually...

In December, it mitigated the effects of the east coast trough by shunting it further to the east, causing all of our December threats (except the last one when the PNA was neutral) to be suppressed out to sea.

In January, the positive PNA was able to make up for the lack of a sustained well-defined west-based -NAO and amplify the trough on the east coast.

[A-L-E-X]

what im trying to prove is that the pna really hasnt had that big of an impact.which it hasnt.

in the NE thread, theyre talking about Arctic air sneaking down from eastern Canada to keep away an all out torch. Still slightly above normal but not really anything signficant. Since SNE was mentioned and we're geographically close to them, you'd think that it would apply to us also.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It has actually...

In December, it mitigated the effects of the east coast trough by shunting it further to the east, causing all of our December threats (except the last one when the PNA was neutral) to be suppressed out to sea.

In January, the positive PNA was able to make up for the lack of a sustained well-defined west-based -NAO and amplify the trough on the east coast.

yea youre deff making sense. id have to agree.

still, you have to get a perfect thread the needle event with just a +pna, has been the case this yr, where as -nao have more wiggle room.

[isnice]

yea youre deff making sense. id have to agree.

still, you have to get a perfect thread the needle event with just a +pna, has been the case this yr, where as -nao have more wiggle room.

I'm hoping the -PNA won't last too long. With a -NAO/-PNA the pattern would be very similar to early December. We'll see as time goes by, but I'm on the snowy March train as of now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I'm hoping the -PNA won't last too long. With a -NAO/-PNA the pattern would be very similar to early December. We'll see as time goes by, but I'm on the snowy March train as of now.

we had some strong blocking then, too strong.

[isnice]

For all of those who didn't think this would happen:

At least blocking is coming back.

[isnice]

I would be more humble if people weren't giving me sh*t about what I was saying.

[Zir0b]

Man it is torching outside right now even with 850 temps below 0, snowpack could be completely eliminated in the next 10 days as the SE ridge starts to flex its muscles and 850 temps go >0 during daytime heating.

[Jefflaw77]

With this week becoming more and more likely of a total miss.. what are the chances, that with this upcoming pattern change for several weeks that NYC does VERY POORLY with respect to snowfall this month.. It's the 6th now and this is a short month and with a pattern changer for 2 weeks, we may not be in a good position to get all that much snow this month... no?

LC said about a week ago to look out for the SE heat ridge.. Many scoffed at his idea.. well, it looks like it is definitley flexing its muscle..

jeff

[A-L-E-X]

Man it is torching outside right now even with 850 temps below 0, snowpack could be completely eliminated in the next 10 days as the SE ridge starts to flex its muscles and 850 temps go >0 during daytime heating.

Heh, with people talking about a thaw for next week, I have news for them, THE THAW IS HERE RIGHT NOW AND IT STARTED YESTERDAY. I dont give a **** about cold and dry weather, it wont matter for anything if we dont get any snow. The snowpack around here is dwindling down to just a few inches and it could actually be gone before the "thaw" next week even gets here!

You're absolutely right, forget the pattern change for next week and pay attention to the thaw that's already here. Expect it to continue tomorrow. It's already 45 here in full sun! And it didnt go below 38 here last night!

[Zir0b]

Heh, with people talking about a thaw for next week, I have news for them, THE THAW IS HERE RIGHT NOW AND IT STARTED YESTERDAY. I dont give a **** about cold and dry weather, it wont matter for anything if we dont get any snow. The snowpack around here is dwindling down to just a few inches and it could actually be gone before the "thaw" next week even gets here!

You're absolutely right, forget the pattern change for next week and pay attention to the thaw that's already here. Expect it to continue tomorrow. It's already 45 here in full sun! And it didnt go below 38 here last night!

Yeah, it actually felt refreshing compared to the streak of 30's and below we've been having pretty much since mid December. I felt like putting on a t-shirt when I stepped outside, I actually had to open my car windows for the first time in a LONG while.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah, it actually felt refreshing compared to the streak of 30's and below we've been having pretty much since mid December. I felt like putting on a t-shirt when I stepped outside, I actually had to open my car windows for the first time in a LONG while.

I know.... I just texted a friend of mine in Florida and said "So this is what summer feels like?" LOL after the scorcher of a summer we had last year, it's amazing how quickly our bodies forget and we think of 45 degrees as being hot now. It's all relative.

[Zir0b]

I know.... I just texted a friend of mine in Florida and said "So this is what summer feels like?" LOL after the scorcher of a summer we had last year, it's amazing how quickly our bodies forget and we think of 45 degrees as being hot now. It's all relative.

It's amazing how the human body's homeostasis mechanism works. Once we have a few days of 45+ degree temperatures, the body will adapt until we get to the next "level" of warmth, let's say around 50-55, and so on. Late next weekend is actually a really good shot for having way above normal temperatures. Look at the GFS setup at 180 hrs, nice bermuda like high setting up with winds from the southwest and mostly sunny skies...I wouldn't be surprised to see many areas reaching 60 degrees if the GFS is correct, especially NYC and areas southwest. Unfortunately LI might be under the influence of a marine layer as southwest winds would mean a flow off cold SSTs in the low-mid 30's.

btw, models are busting badly with today's high temperatures. NAM had max temperatures of 34-36 degrees across the area and most areas are verifying 10 degrees above that.

[Chris L]

Heh, with people talking about a thaw for next week, I have news for them, THE THAW IS HERE RIGHT NOW AND IT STARTED YESTERDAY. I dont give a **** about cold and dry weather, it wont matter for anything if we dont get any snow. The snowpack around here is dwindling down to just a few inches and it could actually be gone before the "thaw" next week even gets here!

You're absolutely right, forget the pattern change for next week and pay attention to the thaw that's already here. Expect it to continue tomorrow. It's already 45 here in full sun! And it didnt go below 38 here last night!

This is a mini thaw because it gets quite cold on Wednesday.

[jm1220]

With this week becoming more and more likely of a total miss.. what are the chances, that with this upcoming pattern change for several weeks that NYC does VERY POORLY with respect to snowfall this month.. It's the 6th now and this is a short month and with a pattern changer for 2 weeks, we may not be in a good position to get all that much snow this month... no?

LC said about a week ago to look out for the SE heat ridge.. Many scoffed at his idea.. well, it looks like it is definitley flexing its muscle..

jeff

We could have some surprises but +NAOs and neutral/neg PNA in La Nina winters are almost never good for us. The SE Ridge looks like it will be ever more present in one form or another, and when amplifications do occur it looks like it will favor the Midwest or NNE. Nina Februaries in general are almost the opposite of Nino ones, since we usually get our stormiest weather in late winter during a Nino.

Many times there's one or two last storm chances in very late Feb/March during Ninas (ones that come to mind include 3/1/09, 3/14/99, 3/5/01), but I agree that the worst of our winter is almost definitely over. We were very fortunate that we had the cooperative blocky pattern we did the last 30-45 days, otherwise we would almost certainly have had a lousy winter overall. If I were to guess, Central Park will break through 60" but will have a very difficult time making it to 70" without the -NAO returning in a favorable spot (Baffin Bay, western Greenland). Sad to see the snowpack getting annihilated out there, but we almost never sustain a long lasting snow cover here like this anyway.

[Chris L]

We could have some surprises but +NAOs and neutral/neg PNA in La Nina winters are almost never good for us. The SE Ridge looks like it will be ever more present in one form or another, and when amplifications do occur it looks like it will favor the Midwest or NNE. Nina Februaries in general are almost the opposite of Nino ones, since we usually get our stormiest weather in late winter during a Nino.

Many times there's one or two last storm chances in very late Feb/March during Ninas (ones that come to mind include 3/1/09, 3/14/99, 3/5/01), but I agree that the worst of our winter is almost definitely over. We were very fortunate that we had the cooperative blocky pattern we did the last 30-45 days, otherwise we would almost certainly have had a lousy winter overall. If I were to guess, Central Park will break through 60" but will have a very difficult time making it to 70" without the -NAO returning in a favorable spot (Baffin Bay, western Greenland). Sad to see the snowpack getting annihilated out there, but we almost never sustain a long lasting snow cover here like this anyway.

jm, it is a little upsetting to see NYC not give 1995-1996 a run for its money because right now February is looking like a dud, but we'll see like you said, March can have its surprises; I just would like to see March 2001 storm only to work this time....

[jm1220]

jm, it is a little upsetting to see NYC not give 1995-1996 a run for its money because right now February is looking like a dud, but we'll see like you said, March can have its surprises; I just would like to see March 2001 storm only to work this time....

What is the #2 winter at Central Park, 47-48? I think they had 64" in 93-94 and we can probably beat that this time. We could sneak into #2 if we get that last storm threat as I alluded to.

All in all, it's a great winter regardless. It's just about impossible for us to get back to back or more very snowy months here. January of last year was a dud, as was January 2003 and Feb and Dec 2004. We need some help from the overall pattern to get major snow down here most of the time, and eventually when that pattern breaks it becomes too mild, or dry. In a raging Nina like this, we had no business likely even approaching normal.

[A-L-E-X]

What is the #2 winter at Central Park, 47-48? I think they had 64" in 93-94 and we can probably beat that this time. We could sneak into #2 if we get that last storm threat as I alluded to.

All in all, it's a great winter regardless. It's just about impossible for us to get back to back or more very snowy months here. January of last year was a dud, as was January 2003 and Feb and Dec 2004. We need some help from the overall pattern to get major snow down here most of the time, and eventually when that pattern breaks it becomes too mild, or dry. In a raging Nina like this, we had no business likely even approaching normal.

1993-94 was beaten long ago, as was 2002-03. We even got past 1960-61. I wonder why the big difference between nina Feb and nina March? Isnt it supposed to be weakening right around now? I wish this event had stayed weak-- those usually translate to tremendous winter weather in Feb; like Feb 1967, Feb 1996 and Feb 2006. Our biggest snowstorm ever was a La Nina Feb snowstorm.

Strong Ninas do tend to correlate to very snowy and cold March weather (actually all La Ninas do), like March 1956 and March 1999.

[A-L-E-X]

I hope this doesnt end up like Feb 1989, which was a + NAO month during a strong La Nina, when our one really big threat dumped 19" on ACY and over a foot on Norfolk and missed us just to the south. Norfolk got two MECS that month and we barely got a flake of snow lol.

[Chris L]

1993-94 was beaten long ago, as was 2002-03. We even got past 1960-61. I wonder why the big difference between nina Feb and nina March? Isnt it supposed to be weakening right around now? I wish this event had stayed weak-- those usually translate to tremendous winter weather in Feb; like Feb 1967, Feb 1996 and Feb 2006. Our biggest snowstorm ever was a La Nina Feb snowstorm.

Strong Ninas do tend to correlate to very snowy and cold March weather (actually all La Ninas do), like March 1956 and March 1999.

Well, our biggest snowstorms are in a NINA (JAN 1996, DEC 2010), FEB 2006).

Some of the biggest are is 1888, or 1961 or 1983.... (Nino).

But I do see the winter having one last stand like it did in '56, NYC metro will surpass the record... (18.2 inches at Newark, NJ in 1956). Newark has 62 inches this season, all they need is 16.4 inches to match it..... I think that is doable if we get a snowy March.

[JBG]

Strong Ninas do tend to correlate to very snowy and cold March weather (actually all La Ninas do), like March 1956 and March 1999.

Well, our biggest snowstorms are in a NINA (JAN 1996, DEC 2010), FEB 2006).

Some of the biggest are is 1888, or 1961 or 1983.... (Nino).

But I do see the winter having one last stand like it did in '56, NYC metro will surpass the record... (18.2 inches at Newark, NJ in 1956). Newark has 62 inches this season, all they need is 16.4 inches to match it..... I think that is doable if we get a snowy March.

Your lips' to G-d's ears. Actually, I do expect that the pattern reloads for a few more.

[A-L-E-X]

Well, our biggest snowstorms are in a NINA (JAN 1996, DEC 2010), FEB 2006).

Some of the biggest are is 1888, or 1961 or 1983.... (Nino).

But I do see the winter having one last stand like it did in '56, NYC metro will surpass the record... (18.2 inches at Newark, NJ in 1956). Newark has 62 inches this season, all they need is 16.4 inches to match it..... I think that is doable if we get a snowy March.

One of the analogs was a very strong la nina (one of the strongest on record) 1892-93..... look up March 1893

As a matter of fact, the three strongest la ninas were all very cold and snowy and the sun was in the same state its in now.

[MJO812]

12z GFS has a gradient pattern setting up for next week.

[ag3]

12z GEFS continue to turn the nao negative mid-month.