pazzo83 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Guidance has been hinting at a warmup int the 2/17 timeframe, after a period of mainly cold to very cold between 2/9 amd 2/15 (including the arctic blast the middle of next week) the peak of the cold). It will be interesting to see if we do warm and if so, how long it can last. Hopefully till December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 This is the last frame we are below freezing. Can we start taking this seriously now? I feel like I need permission before I get bashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yes, it was me, so leave isnice alone lol. I manned up to it and admitted it was me and i was stupidly wrong. Dont make forecasts after a bottle of fine whiskey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yes, it was me, so leave isnice alone lol. I manned up to it and admitted it was me and i was stupidly wrong. Dont make forecasts after a bottle of fine whiskey. Lol thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This is the last frame we are below freezing. Can we start taking this seriously now? I feel like I need permission before I get bashed. except that it isn't. We have like 3-4 days of above normal temps and then we get cool again. I think people are not taking you seriously because you're posting long range GFS maps which are notoriously wrong. They were advertising triple phase potential around this time period 2 wks ago. I just think its counter-productive to post long range GFS maps, just like the 240 hr euro is not likely to be correct in its 10 day depiction. Explain your stance in terms of indices/teloconnections but otherwise it is useless to post long range GFS maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 except that it isn't. We have like 3-4 days of above normal temps and then we get cool again. I think people are not taking you seriously because you're posting long range GFS maps which are notoriously wrong. They were advertising triple phase potential around this time period 2 wks ago. I just think its counter-productive to post long range GFS maps, just like the 240 hr euro is not likely to be correct in its 10 day depiction. Explain your stance in terms of indices/teloconnections but otherwise it is useless to post long range GFS maps.... Like I said, I'd normally agree. The fact that the GFS has been consistently showing this has me concerned. Euro weeklies support the GFS. Large-scale pattern features on the GFS and Euro are highly unfavorable at this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Go wiith Don Sutherland over the ECMWF and GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The GEFS means continue to show ridging from the north affecting greenland, with a favorable PNA and EPO continuing through the Long Term. I don't think there's going to be too much of a southeast ridge influx, aside from the variable few days where it may flex it's muscles based on the synoptic pattern and how much it allows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I going to throw somehting out there and see if anybody remembers. There is something called Cahir's connection that deals with a bulilding high near the Caspian Sea in Asia and foretells a -nao. I think the Euro is showing it. Yes, those are positive height anomalies building over Greenland at that time frame...the NAO is likely heading negative. It's not your traditional north atlantic block, but it will get the job done. I can tell you one thing, there will be no big southeast ridge on the pattern advertised by the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Think all you need to look at is the forecasted NAO values. Euro and GFS ensembles have been pretty consistent for a couple of days now on showing a very neutral look with very small swings between a + NAO and a -NAO. The Euro Op hasn't been as consistant but generally it has had the same look. When the GFS Op has had a very strong +Nao projected for a couple of days now you have to wonder which is right. Think I would put my money on the other guidance right now and without that strong + Nao I don't think you see that degree of a warm up if any at all. Transient warmth is another thing altogether though and is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The GEFS means continue to show ridging from the north affecting greenland, with a favorable PNA and EPO continuing through the Long Term. I don't think there's going to be too much of a southeast ridge influx, aside from the variable few days where it may flex it's muscles based on the synoptic pattern and how much it allows. Strongly agree with this. The PNA may not be particularly favorable, but the EPO ridge will keep us at to below normal for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking at the gfs ensembles over the past few days, I get the feeling we could be heading back to a pattern featured in December with the -NAO/AO (probably not as severe) alongside the ridge over the Aleutians as it looks like the -EPO may break down/retrograde in the next 10 days or so. Just an idea, and I havent peaked at the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'll listen to the pro mets rather than hug the models. Models are used for guidance and what they have been saying makes the most sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The GEFS means continue to show ridging from the north affecting greenland, with a favorable PNA and EPO continuing through the Long Term. I don't think there's going to be too much of a southeast ridge influx, aside from the variable few days where it may flex it's muscles based on the synoptic pattern and how much it allows. Thanks for the reply. Meanwhile, the good news is that in the long range the Euro mean is showing the main polar vortex on our side of the world and if that building ridge over Greenland forces the vortex further south - watchout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 JB still all over a warm pattern flip after 14th range for a false spring warmup then back to winter for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking at the gfs ensembles over the past few days, I get the feeling we could be heading back to a pattern featured in December with the -NAO/AO (probably not as severe) alongside the ridge over the Aleutians as it looks like the -EPO may break down/retrograde in the next 10 days or so. Just an idea, and I havent peaked at the euro ensembles. Sure is looking at least good for more/continued cold, especially the latest model depictions in the east isn't it? This year is truly amazing, when one feature is unfavorable a different one takes over and we stay cold (aside from brief warmups). Plus, if everything comes together, look out... Younger people that read this take note, this is a historic year, one that will be remembered for various reasons, appreciate it because it's impressive. It almost feels as though we've gone back to the days my parents talk about "walking to school up hill both ways in 6' of snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Strongly agree with this. The PNA may not be particularly favorable, but the EPO ridge will keep us at to below normal for the most part. Absolutely. The long range models have been giving the SE ridge too much muscle on about half of the runs this year, it hasn't verified yet. So long as we have that ridge build towards Greenland and the EPO working with us, the SE ridge will never get a word in. It may fluctuate, it always does, but as far as dominance in the pattern it has almost no chance. Should the long range superensembles verify we're likely heading for a nose-dive into another cold and stormy pattern..and a potential sprint towards the #1 winter of all time for a good amount of people who already have the finish line in view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Absolutely. The long range models have been giving the SE ridge too much muscle on about half of the runs this year, it hasn't verified yet. So long as we have that ridge build towards Greenland and the EPO working with us, the SE ridge will never get a word in. It may fluctuate, it always does, but as far as dominance in the pattern it has almost no chance. Should the long range superensembles verify we're likely heading for a nose-dive into another cold and stormy pattern..and a potential sprint towards the #1 winter of all time for a good amount of people who already have the finish line in view. This is great news......the euro pretty much has us stormy and cold through the whole run last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 JB still all over a warm pattern flip after 14th range for a false spring warmup then back to winter for March. If this was true, he better talk to the squirrels in my yard. They have been ripping and tearing my lawn furniture cushions to shreds trying to get stuffing for their nests. This is the first time in 10 years that I have seen this. I am sorry, but like the squirrels are saying, JB is nuts over this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 gfs is still consistent with jb's outlined torch of around the 14th and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So what's the breakdown, it seems like we have another 7-10 of colder/snowier weather, than a mild stretch, then more cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So what's the breakdown, it seems like we have another 7-10 of colder/snowier weather, than a mild stretch, then more cold? yea it appears like we get these next ten days...folllowed by probably a week or so of warmth then back to the cold as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 yea it appears like we get these next ten days...folllowed by probably a week or so of warmth then back to the cold as of now Sounds reasonable-- so basically Feb 5 - 15 cold possibly stormy (lets hope the cold and storminess times out well) then Feb 15-25 milder (how high are the temps we're talking about?) then Feb 25-March back to more of a December kind of blocky pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sounds reasonable-- so basically Feb 5 - 15 cold possibly stormy (lets hope the cold and storminess times out well) then Feb 15-25 milder (how high are the temps we're talking about?) then Feb 25-March back to more of a December kind of blocky pattern. But there's no guarantee we go back to cold and snow in late Feb or March either. I seem to recall a lot of Mets believed last March would turn out to be stormy and cold. It was stormy but the cold air was nowhere to be found. January wasn't supposed to be cold and stormy either so there is no guarantee that the blocking will return and that we will revert back to a cold and stormy pattern after our mild spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 But there's no guarantee we go back to cold and snow in late Feb or March either. I seem to recall a lot of Mets believed last March would turn out to be stormy and cold. It was stormy but the cold air was nowhere to be found. January wasn't supposed to be cold and stormy either so there is no guarantee that the blocking will return and that we will revert back to a cold and stormy pattern after our mild spell. Im ambivalent about it also, but am more encouraged after reading Don S's post about the tendency of winters like the one we're in. Even before we knew what this winter was going to be like, we were talking about how ninas tend to result in cold/snowy Marches-- granted, this winter has been anything but predictable, but I think a cold March is more likely in a la nina then an el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 is it a pattern change or a major thaw?...here are four examples of February having deep snow pack melt from a major thaw... 1947-48...12" snow depth 2/11...59 five day thaw with a max of 59 on 2/19 melts all the snow... 1960-61...11" snow depth 2/12...A trace left by 2/20...63 degrees 2/19... 1966-67...11" snow depth 2/11...zero 2/21...60 degrees 2/15... 1993-94...22" snow depth 2/12...1" left 2/22...61 and 62 degrees 2/21-22... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 is it a pattern change or a major thaw?...here are four examples of February having deep snow pack melt from a major thaw... 1947-48...12" snow depth 2/11...59 five day thaw with a max of 59 on 2/19 melts all the snow... 1960-61...11" snow depth 2/12...A trace left by 2/20...63 degrees 2/19... 1966-67...11" snow depth 2/11...zero 2/21...60 degrees 2/15... 1993-94...22" snow depth 2/12...1" left 2/22...61 and 62 degrees 2/21-22... Three out of four of those were major thaws, because we went back to snow and cold after the thaw ended. 1995-96 had many such periods and we kept going back to cold and snow right through early April. 2002-03 was another winter like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpickett Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If the pattern remembers December, it will deliver the shiver. I don't know what that means, but I once heard JB say that so, it must be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro now pointing towards this pattern shift as well. Maybe the long range GFS should be lended a little more credit than what it's given in determining pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 so we got Earth, Am19, and NJwinter against JB, DT, and isnice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.