isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The GFS has been showing a major pattern shift in its long range for the past few runs now. Trough sets up over the west and the SE ridge finally begins to make its long-awaited appearance. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The GFS has been showing a major pattern shift in its long range for the past few runs now. Trough sets up over the west and the SE ridge finally begins to make its long-awaited appearance. Discuss. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Am I missing something? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yes. I don't care how many runs in a row it has showed this but that is still 300 hours out and is not even worth taking into account at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I don't care how many runs in a row it has showed this but that is still 300 hours out and is not even worth taking into account at this time. True, I would normally think this way as well, if it weren't for this being the third on-hour run showing the same exact thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The GFS has been showing a major pattern shift in its long range for the past few runs now. Trough sets up over the west and the SE ridge finally begins to make its long-awaited appearance. Discuss. Guidance has been hinting at a warmup int the 2/17 timeframe, after a period of mainly cold to very cold between 2/9 amd 2/15 (including the arctic blast the middle of next week) the peak of the cold). It will be interesting to see if we do warm and if so, how long it can last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 True, I would normally think this way as well, if it weren't for this being the third on-hour run showing the same exact thing. When it shows a nor'easter dropping a blizzard on the entire mid-Atlantic and Northeast at this range for three or more runs in a row it is ignored and never taken seriously and those who do get laughed at, but now when it shows this it should be taken seriously? I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 True, I would normally think this way as well, if it weren't for this being the third on-hour run showing the same exact thing. It can't even get 48 hrs in advance correct....nevermind 300 hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 True, I would normally think this way as well, if it weren't for this being the third on-hour run showing the same exact thing. Well, a number of folks (including Don Sutherland) have talked about a stretch of warmer weather for our region starting around mid-month . And I think it will probably happen. The question is...how long will it last? I would say chances are that colder weather comes back at the end of February or the first week of March to give us a couple more winter storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 When it shows a nor'easter dropping a blizzard on the entire mid-Atlantic and Northeast at this range for three or more runs in a row it is ignored and never taken seriously and those who do get laughed at, but now when it shows this it should be taken seriously? I don't think so. I agree, single events and nor'easters are NOT well modeled by the GFS in the long range. However, I've found that large-scale pattern changes in the long range are very accurately depicted, even 300 hours out. I would be saying the same thing if the GFS was showing brutally cold temperatures in the long range. Small-scale features are very easy for a model to miss, even only 84 hours out. Large-scale features like blocking, ridges, etc. are usually well modeled. The GFS is also not all by itself; it has full support from the Euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yes. GFS ensemble means don't agree with that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I wouldn't say this is a SE Ridge-dominant pttern, but I wouldn't look for snow either. hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I agree, single events and nor'easters are NOT well modeled by the GFS in the long range. However, I've found that large-scale pattern changes in the long range are very accurately depicted, even 300 hours out. I would be saying the same thing if the GFS was showing brutally cold temperatures in the long range. Small-scale features are very easy for a model to miss, even only 84 hours out. Large-scale features like blocking, ridges, etc. are usually well modeled. The GFS is also not all by itself; it has full support from the Euro weeklies. I really don't agree at all. There have been a multitude of times that the GFS has portrayed large scale pattern changes very poorly at that range. Countless times it wanted to build blocking, -NAO's, etc. and was way off and in fact never came to fruition. The GFS is also notorious for switching patterns too extremely and too quickly from one setup to another. With all do respect I find it impossible to have any confidence in what the GFS depicts at this time frame whether we are talking about large scale or small scale depictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think we should stick with persistence, meaning more cold and snow, considering what's happened this winter. ECM has continually been building a severe -AO in the longer range, with the NAO trending negative. There are some hints of a warmer stratosphere showing up, and we're already slated for one arctic outbreak next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ifi we do warm up mid month- people's predictions of a snowy feb are going to bust big time, b/c i don't see much snow from now until mid month- and if it warms up mid month- forget about it... no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I wouldn't say this is a SE Ridge-dominant pttern, but I wouldn't look for snow either. hr 240 The time frame I'm looking at is actually at 300+ hours. We already know that around the time frame you just posted, most model guidance is leaning towards an arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ifi we do warm up mid month- people's predictions of a snowy feb are going to bust big time, b/c i don't see much snow from now until mid month- and if it warms up mid month- forget about it... no? Sorry but the beyond 240 hour GFS and the flip-floppy Euro weeklies are not enough amunition for me to be convinced that we will warm-up in any significant way and that most or all of February being warm and not snowy is a done deal. I'd say the same thing if it showed a perfect +PNA, -NAO and ideal blocking for snowstorms from Maine to the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The one bad thing is the MJO is still in the circle of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ifi we do warm up mid month- people's predictions of a snowy feb are going to bust big time, b/c i don't see much snow from now until mid month- and if it warms up mid month- forget about it... no? The 12z ECM shows a good set-up for a Miller A at Day 8....after that, we may have a big -NAO block to help us get snow. I am still leaning snowier than normal for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I don't care how many runs in a row it has showed this but that is still 300 hours out and is not even worth taking into account at this time. He's posting a 300+ hr GFS map. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 He's posting a 300+ hr GFS map. Enough said. Before you post **** like this, see my reasoning above. I'm not the only one warning of this as a possibility, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Before you post **** like this, see my reasoning above. I'm not the only one warning of this as a possibility, you know. i still cant get over your 6" or be unemployed call for NYC two weeks ago. and now ur looking at the long range GFS to validate a major pattern change? come on dood. long range EURO actually has -NAO building.... its verification i believe is a bit better than GFS. and if your gonna start a thread like this, u should prob provide more data for support than just the GFS at 300+ hrs out. on the other hand...having you and Joe Bastardi touting the end of winter is probably good for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ifi we do warm up mid month- people's predictions of a snowy feb are going to bust big time, b/c i don't see much snow from now until mid month- and if it warms up mid month- forget about it... no? january ended up being the snowiest january ever in NYC. 5-6 days out it didn't appear as if we would cash in as much as we did with the storm threats, yet we did. It is one thing if we saw a dry pattern coming up. It may not be a pattern with monster storms but there is definitely energy coming through on a weekly basis as it has basically for the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i still cant get over your 6" or be unemployed call for NYC two weeks ago. and now ur looking at the long range GFS to validate a major pattern change? come on dood. long range EURO actually has -NAO building.... its verification i believe is a bit better than GFS. and if your gonna start a thread like this, u should prob provide more data for support than just the GFS at 300+ hrs out. on the other hand...having you and Joe Bastardi touting the end of winter is probably good for snow lovers. In his defense that was stormchaser. Considering model unreliability at this time, I would not read into anything a 10 day+ model run shows and that goes for both the EURO and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I going to throw somehting out there and see if anybody remembers. There is something called Cahir's connection that deals with a bulilding high near the Caspian Sea in Asia and foretells a -nao. I think the Euro is showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 In his defense that was snowchaser. Considering model unreliability at this time, I would not read into anything a 10 day+ model run shows and that goes for both the EURO and the GFS. really? someone has a quote in their signature saying it was ISNICE. at any rate. if im wrong about that, my bad. but when i find the member who has the sig i will verify it. ALSO....if we cant use or read into any model beyond 10+ days, why even bother with medium range then? so i beg to differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 really? someone has a quote in their signature saying it was ISNICE. at any rate. if im wrong about that, my bad. but when i find the member who has the sig i will verify it. ALSO....if we cant use or read into any model beyond 10+ days, why even bother with medium range then? so i beg to differ. Lol...this is such an annoying misconception. The night of the 26th, when it was snowing, I commented, in quotations (meaning I was quoting someone) "I will quit my job if NYC gets more than 6 inches," followed by "lol." Someone put it in their sig to remember the previous night when stormchaser was tooting the "less than 6 inches" horn. I was simply quoting him to remember how ridiculous the comment was. Since then, a select few who do not agree with my opinions have been saying that I was the one who wrote that. No no, not at all. And as for your comment before about referencing the GFS, I'm also referencing the Euro weeklies. None of this is set and stone but once again, I'm not the only one mentioning this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Lol...this is such an annoying misconception. The night of the 26th, when it was snowing, I commented, in quotations (meaning I was quoting someone) "I will quit my job if NYC gets more than 6 inches," followed by "lol." Someone put it in their sig to remember the previous night when stormchaser was tooting the "less than 6 inches" horn. I was simply quoting him to remember how ridiculous the comment was. Since then, a select few who do not agree with my opinions have been saying that I was the one who wrote that. No no, not at all. And as for your comment before about referencing the GFS, I'm also referencing the Euro weeklies. None of this is set and stone but once again, I'm not the only one mentioning this possibility. geez...shows you that the old classroom game of "telephone" has merit to how rumors get started. my fault sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Bring it on in my shop we work outside and the diesel and kerosene for the blowers are costing me a bloody small fortune we could use a break see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 really? someone has a quote in their signature saying it was ISNICE. at any rate. if im wrong about that, my bad. but when i find the member who has the sig i will verify it. ALSO....if we cant use or read into any model beyond 10+ days, why even bother with medium range then? so i beg to differ. His ID is actually stormchaser. Sorry about that. You can try and use them but these models have been so wishy-washy I have no confidence in them at this point until we are a day or less from the weather conditions they depict so use them at your own peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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