buckeye Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 dr. no says hell yes to the OV at 168. No doubt that would run the apps looking at that trough set up. Of course its out of the euro's wheelhouse timeframe...but nice eyecandy nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 AJ/PJ/STJ all lined up but not quite phased. I'm thinking 192 shows a monster, although east of here. Truthfully if i did not know better i would think i was looking at what just blew through here back when the models started showing it a week or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 dr. no says hell yes to the OV at 168. No doubt that would run the apps looking at that trough set up. Of course its out of the euro's wheelhouse timeframe...but nice eyecandy nonetheless I'm thinking inland runner/coastal hugger, but maybe. The trough looks almost neutral at least and still back at the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Anything decent with the mon-tues storm? precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 as for storm 2 euro/gem/gfs all trending in the right direction today at 144+. digging the energy more consolidated and further back and amplifying heights in front up the east coast only concern is the spacing as Harry mentioned.....of course we are talking about 2 storms in this period. me thinks ultimately the western ridge and the PV postion will dicate where this ends up. right now with no NAO and the marginal spacing, i would favor the OV/possible inland runner for storm #2 of course that could all change in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 .25-.5 or so in Detroit for the MON/TUE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm thinking inland runner/coastal hugger, but maybe. The trough looks almost neutral at least and still back at the MS river. Chances of a inland runner/coastal hugger are very slim without the blocking etc and no decent front runner. As mentioned above this ( at this moment in time ) looks almost like the system that just blew through here when the models had it 7-8 days out. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ah screw it. I have the will power of a crack addict. 12z EURO looks pretty meh with the early week system. Looks like trouble's a brewing out west by 144. Could be big for somebody. more more more dude look at your snow piles, of course you want more. i am concerned about the chicago and illinois/iowa/MO crew though......i imagine they will only be in it half-heartedly the rest of the way. its going to be tough for them to shake the power of the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Chances of a inland runner/coastal hugger are very slim without the blocking etc and no decent front runner. As mentioned above this ( at this moment in time ) looks almost like the system that just blew through here when the models had it 7-8 days out. JMHO I agree with you about the pattern Harry. I'm strictly talking about what the EURO would do with the storm this run based on what I'm seeing at 168. Pure verbatim talk out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 dr. no says hell yes to the OV at 168. No doubt that would run the apps looking at that trough set up. Of course its out of the euro's wheelhouse timeframe...but nice eyecandy nonetheless We have some wiggle room too I would guess to come west? You have to admit this is a much better position to be in with the Euro than the last storm. Correct me if I am wrong, but the Euro (other than 1 burp run) was always way west of the OV with this last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 as for storm 2 euro/gem/gfs all trending in the right direction today at 144+. digging the energy more consolidated and further back and amplifying heights in front up the east coast only concern is the spacing as Harry mentioned.....of course we are talking about 2 storms in this period. me thinks ultimately the western ridge and the PV postion will dicate where this ends up. right now with no NAO and the marginal spacing, i would favor the OV/possible inland runner for storm #2 of course that could all change in 12 hours So the weaker the mon-tues storm is (looks like it bombs off the coast) and the more time in between before the big storm gets going, the better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I agree with you about the pattern Harry. I'm strictly talking about what the EURO would do with the storm this run based on what I'm seeing at 168. Pure verbatim talk out of me. yeah me too, want to make that clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 We have some wiggle room too I would guess to come west? You have to admit this is a much better position to be in with the Euro than the last storm. Correct me if I am wrong, but the Euro (other than 1 burp run) was always way west of the OV with this last storm? Ohio gets about .75-1 inch qpf from this system the way it is with good ratios fyi. I also thought the EURO had a east coast storm around this timeframe and then a few days later it showed a cutter. No idea if this is right or wrong so I could be wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I agree with you about the pattern Harry. I'm strictly talking about what the EURO would do with the storm this run based on what I'm seeing at 168. Pure verbatim talk out of me. Ahh k. Yeah that is what the model does with it. Nice hit for OV/Apps on this run anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 more more more dude look at your snow piles, of course you want more. i am concerned about the chicago and illinois/iowa/MO crew though......i imagine they will only be in it half-heartedly the rest of the way. its going to be tough for them to shake the power of the blizzard. Eh, I'm going to try and get less emotionally involved with these storms. No staying up for EURO QPF anymore. The preoccupation has too much of a negative impact on other aspects of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Eh, I'm going to try and get less emotionally involved with these storms. No staying up for EURO QPF anymore. The preoccupation has too much of a negative impact on other aspects of my life. Yea but its only 3 months out of the year LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 We still haven't dug out from the blizzard. No mail, trash service still. Hope this one tracks farther south and gets the areas that missed the Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yea but its only 3 months out of the year LOL. Yeah only another month and no more! Then I'll be staying up til 2am or later waiting to see the squall line coming at me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So the weaker the mon-tues storm is (looks like it bombs off the coast) and the more time in between before the big storm gets going, the better? thats usually the way it works, of course there are exceptions im sure. it allows heights to recover in front of the next amplifying piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well it looks like the mail is going today, poor guy out there wading in waist deep snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yea but its only 3 months out of the year LOL. True (actually more like 3.5 I think). It's a paradox. Hate it when it's here. Miss it when it's gone. I've gotten better though over the last couple years. Used to be when the GFS had something around D6 the sleepless nights would start to set in. Now I've got it containted to about D4. If I could get the preoccupation down to 2 days, I could live with the lack of productivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 thats usually the way it works, of course there are exceptions im sure. it allows heights to recover in front of the next amplifying piece of energy. Thanks. I would assume the lack of bombing near the U.S. doesn't allow the NAO to tank and suppress the next storm. This is some crazy pattern. No breaks in the action! Atleast east of the rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Eh, I'm going to try and get less emotionally involved with these storms. No staying up for EURO QPF anymore. The preoccupation has too much of a negative impact on other aspects of my life. id agree with this. i only stayed up one night for qpf......of course i never had a big hit like you signalled either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ohio gets about .75-1 inch qpf from this system the way it is with good ratios fyi. I also thought the EURO had a east coast storm around this timeframe and then a few days later it showed a cutter. No idea if this is right or wrong so I could be wrong here. See I thought that the Euro had it more inland the whole time and on only 1 burp run did it show it off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Thanks. I would assume the lack of bombing near the U.S. doesn't allow the NAO to tank and suppress the next storm. This is some crazy pattern. No breaks in the action! Atleast east of the rockies yeah its a very active pattern signalled. as long as a more substantial NAO doesnt return, its going to stay busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 beyond 168: (sounds like the ever allusive app-runner and spills over east....i'll try not to hold my breath) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 And there's the monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 See I thought that the Euro had it more inland the whole time and on only 1 burp run did it show it off the coast. i start taking the euro seriously inside 120.....lock it inside 96 if its cutting inside 120 lock it as well. if its a coastal inside 120...it could go either suppressed, coastal or app runner, but probably not a cutter. that's my experience with Dr. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 by the way, no sushi tonite...probably crepes or fish n'chips. jma crushes it out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 i start taking the euro seriously inside 120.....lock it inside 96 if its cutting inside 120 lock it as well. if its a coastal inside 120...it could go either suppressed, coastal or app runner, but probably not a cutter. that's my experience with Dr. No Oh, so only 4 more runs of the Euro to go. Am I right about what it had leading up to this week's storm? West, west, west, surppressed, west, west, west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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