SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 who is chad evans? A local Met from Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS is way unorganized. 12z nam has something as well but not much. euro at 12z may have been way over the top yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 so i just ran thru the 00z euro on accuwx. Has about half an inch of snow for ohio on the weekend then what appears to be a front and clipper with the heaviest swath thru IN to CLE....maybe a couple inches? BUT after that wtf is with the coastals again???? I thought we were done with those. positive nao and all... Back to a massive eastern trough centered over the Miss valley..... i guess it depends on the AO/NAO returning.......seems like the GEFS ensembles are split.....and it does appear in line with what Don S was predicting coudl happen. hopefuly he will be wrong this time or at least will only come back weakly... looks like a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like the weekend snow is a wash.. and odds are nothing significant for central OH mon/tues.. Nam looked good last night for Friday night/Saturday, now just has a 1" snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 i guess it depends on the AO/NAO returning.......seems like the GEFS ensembles are split.....and it does appear in line with what Don S was predicting coudl happen. hopefuly he will be wrong this time or at least will only come back weakly... looks like a lot of potential. I think this weekends storm is going to cause a pattern change and bring back the supression pattern until storms hit the coast and intensify. Please no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think this weekends storm is going to cause a pattern change and bring back the supression pattern until storms hit the coast and intensify. Please no! Yeah, did you see the day 7ish GFS? Wow! The ONLY glimmer of hope MAYBE is that it is already showing a coastal and not super suppressed. SOOOOOO..........come a little more west my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yeah, did you see the day 7ish GFS? Wow! The ONLY glimmer of hope MAYBE is that it is already showing a coastal and not super suppressed. SOOOOOO..........come a little more west my friend! Yea I hear ya there. All depends how the tellies change as each storm passes. The good thing is that neither of the next two storms are that strong so I am not sure if they will reinforce the block enough to supress the future storms. The good thing is the GFS usually over does the cold so you may be onto something P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think this weekends storm is going to cause a pattern change and bring back the supression pattern until storms hit the coast and intensify. Please no! I don't think the weekend storm is gonna do much where pattern change is concerned. Now the Monday/Tueday storm could. But the weekend storm isn't a blockbuster. I don't buy that it's even remotely strong enough to usher in a change in pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 I agree this weekend storm is nothing to write about. Pattern Changer is unlikely!!! I really like the odds of something big on tues-wed though. Its a long shot but 2 pieces of guidence show a solution of OV/GLs cutter. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I thought the pattern changer was coming Monday-Tuesday but that looks like junk now. Now we got the storm storm late next week that looks strong and that one may change the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Not much agreement in model world. YET. I could still see a moderate sized event early week. Any major potential might have to wait though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Dates are little up in the air...maybe a change to dates on post title soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 i guess it depends on the AO/NAO returning.......seems like the GEFS ensembles are split.....and it does appear in line with what Don S was predicting coudl happen. hopefuly he will be wrong this time or at least will only come back weakly... looks like a lot of potential. And he has been slowly backing off those thoughts too. Personally i think a few got too caught up with that blocking back in DEC. What helped last winter and in a number of cases prior to that with bringing back such blocking was a nino. Yeah there was a few exceptions and well that is what they are Exceptions. Who knows it could return but my hunch is that if it does it wont be till the end of the month and or March. Thing to keep a eye on is spacing between systems. That is one way to send a system further se or whatever regardless of the NAO/AO etc. How i managed to sneak in one of my favorite snow storms at the coast in MD. Yeah the one that slammed the coast and missed the i95 corridor back in Feb 89. That month had a decent +AO etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Larry Cosgrove thinks the storm for late next week will go more left and basically be an inland runner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 What's the euro showing at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 EURO is meidocre for both system weekend and early next week for most everyone. Waiting for the late week one to come in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 EURO is meidocre for both system weekend and early next week for most everyone. Waiting for the late week one to come in... Based on the look at 144, I'm almost positive it's coming north on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Based on the look at 144, I'm almost positive it's coming north on this run. Right now the set up looks cold for us but again we have to remember where we are..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 EURO is meidocre for both system weekend and early next week for most everyone. Waiting for the late week one to come in... I think thats the key for the potential late week storm to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ah screw it. I have the will power of a crack addict. 12z EURO looks pretty meh with the early week system. Looks like trouble's a brewing out west by 144. Could be big for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Can't see 168 yet on PSU but I'm guessing this is a fantasy run for somebody. The trough's already in the process of phasing by 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Based on the look at 144, I'm almost positive it's coming north on this run. yep...decent hit for the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 yep...decent hit for the OV I'm surprised the low was that far south and the trough's that progressive. Thought for a second the EURO was going to spin up a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 yep...decent hit for the OV Come see me Monday night if the EURO has this solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 yep...decent hit for the OV For the storm mid/late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 And he has been slowly backing off those thoughts too. Personally i think a few got too caught up with that blocking back in DEC. What helped last winter and in a number of cases prior to that with bringing back such blocking was a nino. Yeah there was a few exceptions and well that is what they are Exceptions. Who knows it could return but my hunch is that if it does it wont be till the end of the month and or March. Thing to keep a eye on is spacing between systems. That is one way to send a system further se or whatever regardless of the NAO/AO etc. How i managed to sneak in one of my favorite snow storms at the coast in MD. Yeah the one that slammed the coast and missed the i95 corridor back in Feb 89. That month had a decent +AO etc. yeah i was thinking about this too......defintely looks to be an active jet. not sure how it will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=IWX Looking like a good snowfall for northwest Ohio come the end of the week into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 AJ/PJ/STJ all lined up but not quite phased. I'm thinking 192 shows a monster, although east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z EURO CVG THU 00Z 10-FEB -3.7 -8.2 1021 53 100 0.01 549 532 THU 06Z 10-FEB -5.6 -8.3 1015 84 100 0.14 545 533 THU 12Z 10-FEB -5.8 -9.0 1006 94 99 0.38 537 532 Buckeye Land THU 06Z 10-FEB -6.4 -8.1 1016 84 100 0.11 544 531 THU 12Z 10-FEB -5.9 -9.3 1008 93 98 0.34 536 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 For the storm mid/late next week? yeah To echo what Harry said, not that suppressed tracks can't happen, but with this regime we're in I'm going to be a little more skeptical of long range modeling that tries to slide lows harmlessly off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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