SchaumburgStormer Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 AFD excerpt from LOT: A SECOND AND STRONGER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION..THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT COULD EVEN TAKE A TRACK SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAYS STORM. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH AS THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL INDICATING A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD. IT APPEARS THIS UNCERTAINTY IS LARGELY A RESULT OF THE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH FORECASTING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES THAT WILL LARGELY DICTATE THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT VERY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS shows a storm like the EURO did. Takes a similar track with similar QPF. A bit weaker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well I'd like to lock this one in.... it'd be nice to get some actual snow and not a sleetfest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0z GFS shows a more well defined low pressure center on virtually the EXACT same track as this last system, straight through extreme SE missouri/AR/TN/IL four state area. We'll see about the cold air... but it's looking pretty warm on the 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 .50-.60 here in southern Ohio. I'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The low tracks north of you, pretty sure it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GGEM That looks pretty far north. Hopefully no rain for me - I want my snowpack to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well hopefully we get something given JB is calling for a mild surge after Valentine's - a three week false spring. Maybe he'll be right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The low tracks north of you, pretty sure it's rain. no... Text data says no... 850's and 540 is well south of me..... MON 00Z 07-FEB 0.0 -1.8 1016 96 98 0.02 549 536 MON 06Z 07-FEB 0.4 -2.2 1013 98 97 0.11 545 535 MON 12Z 07-FEB 0.3 -2.1 1007 99 95 0.07 539 533 MON 18Z 07-FEB 0.9 -3.0 1004 100 99 0.21 534 531 TUE 00Z 08-FEB -3.6 -8.4 1009 98 99 0.10 530 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 no... Text data says no... 850's and 540 is well south of me..... MON 00Z 07-FEB 0.0 -1.8 1016 96 98 0.02 549 536 MON 06Z 07-FEB 0.4 -2.2 1013 98 97 0.11 545 535 MON 12Z 07-FEB 0.3 -2.1 1007 99 95 0.07 539 533 MON 18Z 07-FEB 0.9 -3.0 1004 100 99 0.21 534 531 TUE 00Z 08-FEB -3.6 -8.4 1009 98 99 0.10 530 523 BL temps seem marginal but details aren't critical yet. Would not be good the farther east you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Low goes through KY which is south of me and cuts up central Ohio which is east of me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 BL temps seem marginal but details aren't critical yet. Would not be good the farther east you go. Yeap. Need to get through the weekend first I say. See what Dr. No says soon. Be nice it can lock into something good in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 gem and gfs are different but both a 2-5 inch snow or so for us. the story of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 gem and gfs are different but both a 2-5 inch snow or so for us. the story of the winter. you need to move north, to much snow weenie with an upper midwest snow attitude. I say you head to madison or somewhere in the lake effect belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking more and more like a rain event for next week again. This weekend event looks like a marginal 1-2 inch event here. Not even sure if an advisory will even be needed. This winter is killing. I just want one storm bigger than 3 inches. A warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking more and more like a rain event for next week again. This weekend event looks like a marginal 1-2 inch event here. Not even sure if an advisory will even be needed. This winter is killing. I just want one storm bigger than 3 inches. A warning criteria event. You and me both! Last snow a few weeks ago only gave me around 3" with more closer to columbus. We have not had bigger than 3" this whole fricken winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 DTX still being very vague about this event, saying how the models are all over the place (what else is new?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 so i just ran thru the 00z euro on accuwx. Has about half an inch of snow for ohio on the weekend then what appears to be a front and clipper with the heaviest swath thru IN to CLE....maybe a couple inches? BUT after that wtf is with the coastals again???? I thought we were done with those. positive nao and all... Back to a massive eastern trough centered over the Miss valley..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 so i just ran thru the 00z euro on accuwx. Has about half an inch of snow for ohio on the weekend then what appears to be a front and clipper with the heaviest swath thru IN to CLE....maybe a couple inches? BUT after that wtf is with the coastals again???? I thought we were done with those. positive nao and all... Back to a massive eastern trough centered over the Miss valley..... Mon/Tues? Maybe the Euro showing a coastal is a good thing? NW trend? I don't know...looking for anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 The models still dont want to get a handle on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Mon/Tues? Maybe the Euro showing a coastal is a good thing? NW trend? I don't know...looking for anything here. no this is for the 168-192. Mon/Tues is already about as nw as we would want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 no this is for the 168-192. Mon/Tues is already about as nw as we would want. Ok, got ya. So is it showing any snow for us Mon/Tues? In regards to hours 168-192, I think it is better that the Euro is showing coastal and not cutter b/c once it (Euro) goes cutter it NEVER comes east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ytown1425 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So it Saturday more of a nuisance snow or a big snow? I'm moving down to Columbus on Saturday and trying to figure if I have to adjust because of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Not much agreement in model world. YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ok, got ya. So is it showing any snow for us Mon/Tues? In regards to hours 168-192, I think it is better that the Euro is showing coastal and not cutter b/c once it (Euro) goes cutter it NEVER comes east! nothing big mon tues....for anyone, but the heaviest swath is from about indy to youngstown....couple tenths of an inch maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Definitely not feeling this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Above post was from Chad Evans Weather Blog..I figured it would shed some light on what some people are Thinking will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 who is chad evans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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