MoeWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z NAM trending the wrong way now a bit stronger with the confluent zone. I'd be pretty close to writing this one off north of the Ohio River. After the 12z runs and the latest AO. Id' be optimistic as ever on further northward shift. Especially after yesterday's model initiation. They all started at least 5 - 10°F too cold. Now we also see that adjustment in AO. How far is the question, but Id say Indiana wise Hwy 50 and South need to keep an eye on this one. Especially given the latest developments. Its not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 After the 12z runs and the latest AO. Id' be optimistic as ever on further northward shift. Especially after yesterday's model initiation. They all started at least 5 - 10°F too cold. Now we also see that adjustment in AO. How far is the question, but Id say Indiana wise Hwy 50 and South need to keep an eye on this one. Especially given the latest developments. Its not over yet. what am i missing here. I haven't seen a single model run with any kind of significant shift north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 what am i missing here. I haven't seen a single model run with any kind of significant shift north? lol what I tell you there is grumbling out there of of a northward shift. Yea there is light precip in KY but nothing heavy.... Light precip could make it here but this bad boy has burned and gone off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 One of these years the pv will play ball. 3 straight winters of hope in the longer ranges foiled again. Nothing will beat 2009 however, as that one had model wide concensus as 120-144hr range. truly one of the great MR model failures of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 After the 12z runs and the latest AO. Id' be optimistic as ever on further northward shift. Especially after yesterday's model initiation. They all started at least 5 - 10°F too cold. Now we also see that adjustment in AO. How far is the question, but Id say Indiana wise Hwy 50 and South need to keep an eye on this one. Especially given the latest developments. Its not over yet. Moe, IND is not quite closing this out yet for you guys along the Ohio River: MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. CONSIDERING WHAT STORM SYSTEMS HAVE DONE RECENTLY...STILL THINK ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS WE TREND CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ALL THIS MAY DO IS SPREAD THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Moe, IND is not quite closing this out yet for you guys along the Ohio River: MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. CONSIDERING WHAT STORM SYSTEMS HAVE DONE RECENTLY...STILL THINK ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS WE TREND CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ALL THIS MAY DO IS SPREAD THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOL... Maybe a flurry....JB's Phanton Storm of 2011!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 what am i missing here. I haven't seen a single model run with any kind of significant shift north? Its not significant shift north (yet) , instead of dumping the low in the gulf, they are now along the gulf coast and bringing something across the TN Valley. The fact that Western KY was bone dry the last few runs and now are not also indicates a subtle change. NAM has always been onshore, extrapolated the whole time. Everything else took a dive. Also, the idea of shifting last min like just about every of the last 5 storms has done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thinking I have a good shot at a decent event again. This could end up being a great week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thinking I have a good shot at a decent event again. This could end up being a great week. Oh yes, you definitely do at the KY/TN border. GFS remains out to lunch. NAM still brings some snow to Western KY up to the Ohio River SREF 21z Is right with NAM and brings moisture up into extreme SW Indiana/S Illinois as well. 00z GEM(fwiw) brings in moisture across Western KY up to the Ohio River GEFS 12z Mean also brought moisture into Western KY, Southern IN, and Southern IL (waiting on new data Earl Barker's slow to update sometimes) While we're not talking storm of the century here.The lack of activity in this area we'll take what excitement we can get. 3 -4" is exciting down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 PAH Writeup. I will not be surprised if someone ends up with 4-6 inches again from a system like this. Plus temperatures are going to be colder, so hopefully we can get the roads covered. AS FOR THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SHARE A SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LEVEL SYSTEMS LOSE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...LOOKING BACK AT PREVIOUS MODEL HISTORY...THIS IS A VERY SIMILAR MODEL SCENARIO TO THE ONE WHICH OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS MODEL SCENARIO DID NOT PAN OUT VERY WELL OVER WESTERN KY AND MUCH OF SE MISSOURI. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE TOO WEAK WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTH...THE MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THAN TODAYS. EVEN WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DUE TO A COLDER COLUMN...CONFIDENCE IN MEETING WARNING CRITERIA IS NO SUFFICIENT FOR A 4TH PERIOD WATCH THIS FAR NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. AS FOR THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SHARE A SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LEVEL SYSTEMS LOSE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...LOOKING BACK AT PREVIOUS MODEL HISTORY...THIS IS A VERY SIMILAR MODEL SCENARIO TO THE ONE WHICH OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS MODEL SCENARIO DID NOT PAN OUT VERY WELL OVER WESTERN KY AND MUCH OF SE MISSOURI. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE TOO WEAK WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTH...THE MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THAN TODAYS. EVEN WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DUE TO A COLDER COLUMN...CONFIDENCE IN MEETING WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR A 4TH PERIOD WATCH THIS FAR NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 PAH Writeup. I will not be surprised if someone ends up with 4-6 inches again from a system like this. Plus temperatures are going to be colder, so hopefully we can get the roads covered. AS FOR THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SHARE A SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LEVEL SYSTEMS LOSE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...LOOKING BACK AT PREVIOUS MODEL HISTORY...THIS IS A VERY SIMILAR MODEL SCENARIO TO THE ONE WHICH OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS MODEL SCENARIO DID NOT PAN OUT VERY WELL OVER WESTERN KY AND MUCH OF SE MISSOURI. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE TOO WEAK WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTH...THE MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THAN TODAYS. EVEN WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DUE TO A COLDER COLUMN...CONFIDENCE IN MEETING WARNING CRITERIA IS NO SUFFICIENT FOR A 4TH PERIOD WATCH THIS FAR NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. AS FOR THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SHARE A SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THEN GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LEVEL SYSTEMS LOSE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...LOOKING BACK AT PREVIOUS MODEL HISTORY...THIS IS A VERY SIMILAR MODEL SCENARIO TO THE ONE WHICH OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. OBVIOUSLY...THIS MODEL SCENARIO DID NOT PAN OUT VERY WELL OVER WESTERN KY AND MUCH OF SE MISSOURI. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE TOO WEAK WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTH...THE MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THAN TODAYS. EVEN WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DUE TO A COLDER COLUMN...CONFIDENCE IN MEETING WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR A 4TH PERIOD WATCH THIS FAR NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. Pretty much why I am taking this storm with a grain... Models have been consistently off until the last min here. For me here in Evansville, thats been either North or South of me, that looks no different this round as the event as a whole is a bit further south. But I agree given cold air will actually be here this time (since it wasn't Monday Morning...despite the end result) I can see emergency WARNINGS being issued and over 4" of snow down your way out of this. with high snow ratios... Anyways one to watch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Pretty much why I am taking this storm with a grain... Models have been consistently off until the last min here. For me here in Evansville, thats been either North or South of me, that looks no different this round as the event as a whole is a bit further south. But I agree given cold air will actually be here this time (since it wasn't Monday Morning...despite the end result) I can see emergency WARNINGS being issued and over 4" of snow down your way out of this. with high snow ratios... Anyways one to watch for sure. I sure hope you're right. PAH sounds like they would pull the trigger if they had more data. I know tomorrow will be a fun day to watch the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 PAH AFD says it all. Defin has been a horrrrrrrrriiibbbbllleee few months for the models. I personally don't ever recall so many short range forecast busts. This is two within 72 hours for this region. Not small busts - mega busts. The only model that did well - HRRR. Nailed it the last three or four events. It can be used within the 15 hour range. Also the EC has been on fire for our local area. Snow ratios should be high - maybe 15:1 or 20:1 - see how it goes. EC has 0.12" for PAH Hey Beau, do you have a link to the HRRR, like the maps you post on facebook. Would love to get a hold of those. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yes http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrlarge/ Bookmarked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This was what it showed last night or during wee am hours this morning for the event Obviously it speaks for itself I agree, amazing how it was able to catch all the banding. You made the hint that higher totals weren't out of the question. Let's hope the HRR decides to show some more banding with the Weds/Weds night storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Will be interesting - sort of a different set up - but we shall see. The local casters are defin extremely gun shy. Wish I had not slept in this morning - lol. Was happy to wake up to the bonus snow. Nice to get a surprise every so often. How have ya been? Im never on msn messenger anymore, so it's been a while. Btw, can you shoot me a link to the map of your property showing all the weather stuff you had. Im wanting to get a set up and looking for ideas of how to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Will be interesting - sort of a different set up - but we shall see. The local casters are defin extremely gun shy. Wish I had not slept in this morning - lol. Was happy to wake up to the bonus snow. Nice to get a surprise every so often. Yes, I definitely agree. They have a right to be gun shy right now but if the models trend tomorrow, I expect them to jump the gun. They are already under scrutiny because the roads were not brined at all here. But since temperatures were marginal, the roads are in a lot better shape. But this system will likely have temps in the low 20's, so they will definitely have to watch this because this snowfall will accumulate to roadways much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This was what it showed last night or during wee am hours this morning for the event Obviously it speaks for itself Impressive, I've never seen this site before. I'll be paying closer attention to it from here on out. Thanks for the link. I have been looking over it and I like what I see. Its going to take some time get use to the complexity of the site, but what I've see thus far will be useful. Thanks gratz on that 'bonus' snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 NAM should be rolling in shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 NAM went south with the .25-.50 line. Verbatim, the NAM would be 2-4 inches imby. Time to wait for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 GFS still says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This is really going to be a close call. The NAM almost brings the .25-.50 line back up into this region. And the GFS is finally starting to bring some moisture into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This is really going to be a close call. The NAM almost brings the .25-.50 line back up into this region. And the GFS is finally starting to bring some moisture into the region. Euro/GEM shifted North a hair as well too... NWS Paducah is about to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for your area. Per the latest Discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 http://www.weatherobservatory.com/ Been good - I am on MSN under [email protected] Beau, I know I'm supposed to get a little more than you, but I am very worried about the amount of dry air we are going to have to face. What time are you thinking the snow should move. I'm thinking sometime in the afternoon hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 NAM should be rolling in shortly. Why even bother looking at this or the GFS? I'm starting to wonder why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 http://www.weatherobservatory.com/ Been good - I am on MSN under [email protected] Hey. Yea I have your site bookmarked, but cant find that layout on there anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It is defin a concern - the HRRR has been handling systems well lately and you can see how much dry air kills the snow. I am thinking late morning into afternoon. Pretty fast moving system. The snow ratios should be high - that could help the cause. Sharp cutoff though between the haves and the have nots! Yeah, I have been watching that model a lot as well. But it looks like we might get some good bands to come through. Too bad I'll be asleep to see the future runs. But if we can get 6-8 hours of snow, maybe somebody can squeeze 3 or 4 inches out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 HRRR model paints .25-.50 in precip totals this afternoon. That could very well be 3-5 inches of snow. We will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 HRRR model paints .25-.50 in precip totals this afternoon. That could very well be 3-5 inches of snow. We will see what happens. Yea looks like u may get lucky again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Decent bands over you UK, seeing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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