dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 both? Yep Euro MON 12Z 07-FEB 0.2 -3.3 1014 91 88 0.01 545 533 MON 18Z 07-FEB 3.7 -3.5 1012 83 96 0.02 543 533 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 0.4 -4.6 1010 97 98 0.17 538 530 TUE 06Z 08-FEB -3.8 -9.6 1013 82 62 0.11 533 523 GFS(guess its .28) MON 06Z 07-FEB -0.4 -2.8 1016 96 98 0.01 546 533 MON 12Z 07-FEB -0.4 -2.9 1015 99 91 0.03 543 532 MON 18Z 07-FEB 1.9 -3.3 1011 99 98 0.06 542 532 TUE 00Z 08-FEB -0.7 -5.5 1010 99 100 0.13 537 529 TUE 06Z 08-FEB -5.4 -10.5 1014 98 62 0.05 530 520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 See above post from me beau.. its ridiculous. Both gfs and euro now have me at .31 0z gave me .08.. precisely why I'm not willing to throw the towel in for a nice OR even Thursday.. Buckeye quick question out of curiosity, I can't remember if March 08 was a phased bomb, or just OR i don't think it was a bomb... and dr. no just sealed the deal for late week. No way it comes back inside 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Could the models be any less accurate? Remember the NAM last night that kept me completely dry? Now we have a snow advisory and the storm is on track. I have honestly never seen the type of failures witnessed this winter - by the models. Except for the EC - which is basically king of the jungle. Appears my 1-3" is on track. Hopefully. NAM is complete trash. It should not be used at all. It did terrible with the blizzard even 12 hours before the event shifting the heaviest precip farther west while the GFS stayed the course and ended up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 GRRRR new EC says "HELLO FLORIDA" yep...pv is waaaaaaaaaaay too east for anything. That's not likely to be something that changes in the modelling, especially this close. Ok LC, now what? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 <br />NAM is complete trash. It should not be used at all. It did terrible with the blizzard even 12 hours before the event shifting the heaviest precip farther west while the GFS stayed the course and ended up being correct.<br /><br /><br /><br />In terms of tomorrow's storm, they have ALL been awful and have been flip flopping every other run including the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro back on board for Monday/Tuesday. Both give me .31. What's it got for Pitt dilly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro gives CMH 0.19" tomorrow night. Not too bad....Hopefully a small last minute NW shift again and we'll be game for 3 or 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Should be of note too that even this little sheared out wave today went a little further NW than models predicted. Seems to def be a trend of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro gives CMH 0.19" tomorrow night. Not too bad....Hopefully a small last minute NW shift again and we'll be game for 3 or 4 inches gfs is .2 so a 1-2" coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What is pushing that disturbance south into the great lakes from hours 48-72? The PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What's it got for Pitt dilly? .36 from dr. no/ .35 from gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs is .2 so a 1-2" coating. Better take all we can get before the warm up commences next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yep...pv is waaaaaaaaaaay too east for anything. That's not likely to be something that changes in the modelling, especially this close. Ok LC, now what? lol 00z run is make or break for me. Issue seems to be several things a few i already touched on such as Canada/energy diving in from over the top/Artic. One i did not is the system itself as the energy does not look nearly as impressive as it once did. Thus one very good way to lose a system to the se. It still could bring some decent snows to the deep south because well they have the GOM and it does not take much to bring that moisture up down there. Truthfully the PV is almost in the same exact spot it was for the blizzard. Issue again is the energy diving through Canada bringing the confluence zone further south and blocking the system off. I can assure all if the energy were diving out towards MT/ID etc ( farther west ) we would see this system coming up alot farther to the nw even with the PV in that position. Ofcourse though if the PV was farther north or nw that would help too. Pretty amazing how it has hardly moved at all for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 .11 for PAH for the Thursday system lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro not as impressive with the warmup in central OH MON 00Z 21-FEB 6.1 5.0 1011 98 39 0.01 558 549 MON 12Z 21-FEB 2.5 4.6 1016 97 50 0.04 560 547 TUE 00Z 22-FEB 4.1 2.9 1017 95 91 0.13 562 548 TUE 12Z 22-FEB 1.6 5.7 1017 94 93 0.10 565 551 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 00z run is make or break for me. Issue seems to be several things a few i already touched on such as Canada/energy diving in from over the top/Artic. One i did not is the system itself as the energy does not look nearly as impressive as it once did. Thus one very good way to lose a system to the se. It still could bring some decent snows to the deep south because well they have the GOM and it does not take much to bring that moisture up down there. Truthfully the PV is almost in the same exact spot it was for the blizzard. Issue again is the energy diving through Canada bringing the confluence zone further south and blocking the system off. I can assure all if the energy were diving out towards MT/ID etc ( farther west ) we would see this system coming up alot farther to the nw even with the PV in that position. Ofcourse though if the PV was farther north or nw that would help too. Pretty amazing how it has hardly moved at all for so long. gotta admit when i saw this map i thought....hmmmm??? then it went to hell at 96 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Even the JMA likes the southern solution. Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro not as impressive with the warmup in central OH MON 00Z 21-FEB 6.1 5.0 1011 98 39 0.01 558 549 MON 12Z 21-FEB 2.5 4.6 1016 97 50 0.04 560 547 TUE 00Z 22-FEB 4.1 2.9 1017 95 91 0.13 562 548 TUE 12Z 22-FEB 1.6 5.7 1017 94 93 0.10 565 551 End of next weekend looks beautiful. How did you get Euro text data past 7 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 End of next weekend looks beautiful. How did you get Euro text data past 7 days? my secret JK that was the GFS lol.. I had forgot I switched to the gfs for PAGuy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I give this storm one more main run to show something other then that I welcome the torch with open arms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I give this storm one more main run to show something other then that I welcome the torch with open arms! absolutely...I love that first late winter, early spring day when it hits upper 60's to 70s and that 'smell' is in the air, birds are singing etc. Kinda like that first cold gray day in early november when the smell of burning wood is in the air and excitement grows for winter wx season to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Even the JMA likes the southern solution. Game over. I'm really beginning to wonder if mets were focusing on the wrong storm. The JMA appears to be a MAJOR i-95 snowfall hit for the tuesday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm really beginning to wonder if mets were focusing on the wrong storm. The JMA appears to be a MAJOR i-95 snowfall hit for the tuesday event. Would be funny if they all miss it and the JMA scores a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Would be funny if they all miss it and the JMA scores a win. quite honestly mon/tues 5h setup is way more impressive then late week, and it always has been, (i was just hopping on the jb/lc/and other mets comments). But im beginning to get excited for a stronger, wetter, and thus a bit more nw solution for mon/tues. the way things have been playing out lately it's hard to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hope we warm into the 60s - would be nice. I am ready for spring. Oh yeah, I'm getting pumped for severe weather season. Too bad it may be a late start this far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Oh yeah, I'm getting pumped for severe weather season. Too bad it may be a late start this far north Can't possibly start as late as last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Can't possibly start as late as last year. Yeah and then we had maybe one month of fun before the drought kicked in? I'm hoping for a cooler summer because that will probably extend our severe weather episodes into July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's Official NOW! JB bails: "no late week storm as PNA does it's dirty work".... next week much milder.....DC 70 and Chicago 10+ above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 lol...im actually surprised he bailed so early. He usually waits till 48 hrs out. Wonder when LC crawls out of the shadow and admits defeat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah and then we had maybe one month of fun before the drought kicked in? I'm hoping for a cooler summer because that will probably extend our severe weather episodes into July and August. Those words should never be said! IMO there is nothing better than 90+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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