pondo1000 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs plays right into what JB loves to claim are it's biases....and if right, would probably yield a further north stronger solution. This is exactly what he'd say about the gfs.... Is this different than what the 0z was showing last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs plays right into what JB loves to claim are it's biases....and if right, would probably yield a further north stronger solution. This is exactly what he'd say about the gfs.... Does this play into the theory and sometimes known fact of the GFS having troubles with SE biased placement? I can see that. This is a long shot here..forgive me. 2 systems this winter ( off the top of my head) had major model problems..The Dec 12th ( trended 300 miles in either direction) and the most recent Feb 5th storm (last hr trending) I understand the patterns were different than what the OBS shows now but could it be a bet that the models are playing games once again? Its almost as if the Monday system needs to get out of the way in order to show the models the yellow brick road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Does this play into the theory and sometimes known fact of the GFS having troubles with SE biased placement? I can see that. This is a long shot here..forgive me. 2 systems this winter ( off the top of my head) had major model problems..The Dec 12th ( trended 300 miles in either direction) and the most recent Feb 5th storm (last hr trending) I understand the patterns were different than what the OBS shows now but could it be a bet that the models are playing games once again? Its almost as if the Monday system needs to get out of the way in order to show the models the yellow brick road. it's an incredible long shot. But what i meant by jb is that he always says the gfs, and most models, tend to focus too much energy out in front and not enough in back In this case it would lead to more ridging out front if that piece was weaker. It has trended a bit weaker then 00z and the northern piece a bit stronger....but most likely still too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 it's an incredible long shot. But what i meant by jb is that he always says the gfs, and most models, tend to focus too much energy out in front and not enough in back In this case it would lead to more ridging out front if that piece was weaker. It has trended a bit weaker then 00z and the northern piece a bit stronger....but most likely still too little too late. I'm thinking that since even the Euro at 96 hours has it too far south for us that this one might be over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm thinking that since even the Euro at 96 hours has it too far south for us that this one might be over... canadian is even more suppressed then 00z damn nam trying to tease us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 There's something disturbing when a thread for a storm that never really existed is going to reach 1,000 posts. In the interest of sanity, I'd suggest not making a PART II until if/when the models turn more favorable. I don't think the musings of JB the clown are sufficient enough. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 There's something disturbing when a thread for a storm that never really existed is going to reach 1,000 posts. In the interest of sanity, I'd suggest not making a PART II until if/when the models turn more favorable. I don't think the musings of JB the clown are sufficient enough. lol. nothing else of interest to discuss, other than whether we can pull a nw trend out of tomorrows 1-3" event. Also looks to me like the nam is a pretty good threat for the st.louis and paducah crowd with some light stuff into the s. ov. what has been unique about this 'phantom system' is that many mets, (not just jb), but some who post in these forums seem to be scratching their heads and wondering if the models are mishandling things as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Buckeye, you are really hanging your hopes on the HR 84 NAM? Espically when it was god-awful during the blizzard here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Buckeye, you are really hanging your hopes on the HR 84 NAM? Espically when it was god-awful during the blizzard here? nah, not hanging hopes on anything....just commentating the model outputs, (see my post about the ggem). The thing is everyone was shocked that the models were like 200 miles off on the storm yesterday less then 24 hrs out and now some of those same shocked folks are claiming the mos beyond 84 are sealing the deal for late week. i'm giving a further nw track, enough to bring light precip to i-70, late week at about 20%. Heck even the euro kinda showed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm going to say this again. The models are garbage right now. Anyone in the OV thinking there is no shot is foolish. The storm yesterday was proof and the Monday system was weaker and further south yesterday so I pulled my first call off my site, and what do you know today its coming nw and stronger. The piece of energy coming south is stronger than models showed. For some reason they can't get anything right in the short range, so why trust the long range. Not saying something will happen, but there is definitely something going on with the way models are struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 uk...i'd call this improvement from 00z similar to putting lipstick on a pig improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 nothing else of interest to discuss, other than whether we can pull a nw trend out of tomorrows 1-3" event. Also looks to me like the nam is a pretty good threat for the st.louis and paducah crowd with some light stuff into the s. ov. what has been unique about this 'phantom system' is that many mets, (not just jb), but some who post in these forums seem to be scratching their heads and wondering if the models are mishandling things as well. Well I'm rooting for you but I think the models are going to have to start to turn around in a hurry. It'd be a shame if this thing just scooted off the SE coast as there was discussion very early in this thread about this storm having greater potential than the ORD/MKE blizzard. But potential is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 And even more hope now lol Henry Margusity Fan Club What I think is happening with the Thursday storm, the storm Monday night into Tuesday becomes the blocker to force the Thursday storm out through the Southeast. As for snow, we end up with a swath of snow from the Texas Panhandle to North Carolina and southern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 there really is no blocking or anything that is preventing this storm. just that the PV and the northern stream are not anything at all what was modeled several days ago. basically the key ingredient to the storm is no longer modeled at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well I'm rooting for you but I think the models are going to have to start to turn around in a hurry. It'd be a shame if this thing just scooted off the SE coast as there was discussion very early in this thread about this storm having greater potential than the ORD/MKE blizzard. But potential is what it is. absolutely...as in yesterday lol Dr. No really probably sealed it last night, although checking the precip and 6hr increments on accuwx this morning, it actually took very light precip all the way into ne ohio. i was kinda surprised by that. A little bit more of a robust storm and we might have a better shot at least some light overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LC sticking to his guns.. Says many people, after seeing the 12z gfs run, will want to throw the towel in for mid week, but that they shouldn't. . That the GOES WEST imagery shows there are four important features in the mix that favor something major in the way of a storm this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 there really is no blocking or anything that is preventing this storm. just that the PV and the northern stream are not anything at all what was modeled several days ago. basically the key ingredient to the storm is no longer modeled at this time. yep no juice in the n..stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LC sticking to his guns.. Says many people, after seeing the 12z gfs run, will want to throw the towel in for mid week, but that they shouldn't. . That the GOES WEST imagery shows there are four important features in the mix that favor something major in the way of a storm this week. LC and JB are standing at the end of a dead tree limb encased with 1" ice accretion and with winds ready to gust to 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Henry M jumped ship.....................that's sad LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Henry M jumped ship.....................that's sad LOL well now, let's think about that first.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 well now, let's think about that first.... Haha true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Henry M jumped ship.....................that's sad LOL Yea I posted it above as a good sign lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You would think that a couple of the ensembles or Dr. No would have started to sniff this threat out though if it were going to occur........very discouraging at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ensembles I'll take, er never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'll take, er never mind. lol...yea but if it's any concillation the op seems to be the most miserable of the bad choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You would think that a couple of the ensembles or Dr. No would have started to sniff this threat out though if it were going to occur........very discouraging at this point Yea I'm not confident, but I think it's too early to throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro back on board for Monday/Tuesday. Both give me .31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro back on board for Monday/Tuesday. Both give me .31. both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Could the models be any less accurate? Remember the NAM last night that kept me completely dry? Now we have a snow advisory and the storm is on track. I have honestly never seen the type of failures witnessed this winter - by the models. Except for the EC - which is basically king of the jungle. See above post from me beau.. its ridiculous. Both gfs and euro now have me at .31 0z gave me .08.. precisely why I'm not willing to throw the towel in for a nice OR even Thursday.. Buckeye quick question out of curiosity, I can't remember if March 08 was a phased bomb, or just OR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.