buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LC is going inland track..great hit for Pitt,buffalo etc etc being the 3 big cities of ohio as well. Normally I'd discount this from LC, but the truth is he's been on a hot streak with storm tracks this year. Called the last one almost perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Inland? None of the models have a "developed" storm period. Nothing developes except for the overrunning. incorrect....the euro has had several solutions with a track off the coast up to cape cod or east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 etc being the 3 big cities of ohio as well. Normally I'd discount this from LC, but the truth is he's been on a hot streak with storm tracks this year. Called the last one almost perfectly. Are we talking about Larry Cosgrove? The storm for Monday is looking very lackluster now... Could take another one for the team.. LOL... Can it pay off? We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 None of the models operationals develope bunk. All those "coastal" tracks are also the fastest with the s/w. Something is going have to change in the northern stream for anything to develope. The southern s/w is already slowing down. Doesn't mean much right now. well no sh/\t somethings going to have to change....that's the point. Regardless some of the models DO have the storm...just way east. You implied otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Are we talking about Larry Cosgrove? The storm for Monday is looking very lackluster now... Could take another one for the team.. LOL... Can it pay off? We shall see... yep cosgrove and he's referring to late week. Yep looks like we're rapidly losing the tues event, ironically to a SE shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Are we talking about Larry Cosgrove? The storm for Monday is looking very lackluster now... Could take another one for the team.. LOL... Can it pay off? We shall see... We need the monday system to be a wash imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 as Harry noted....we need that damn PV to head more west. Sitting to the north of the greatlakes with strong confluence over the southern greatlakes isn't exactly a recipe for a ridge to pop in the east. Still not seeing any signs of that changing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm not sure... Could we be looking at a 1-2-3 punch ... Today- Anything that could go wrong went wrong Monday/Tuesday- Southwest and its dwindling ... Late Week-- Suppression City Then we warm and break the pattern. If we get 3 screw jobs I will be all ready for the torch and some 60's... Can go outside and enjoy myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The GFS is trending like the NAM in slowing down the southern branch s/w and bringing it in farther west. Now we just have to do something about Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I'm not sure... Could we be looking at a 1-2-3 punch ... Today- Anything that could go wrong went wrong Monday/Tuesday- Southwest and its dwindling ... Late Week-- Suppression City Then we warm and break the pattern. If we get 3 screw jobs I will be all ready for the torch and some 60's... Can go outside and enjoy myself... i agree...and if that happens, no turning back, lets move into an early severe season and kiss winter goodbye. Wishful thinking. Btw heres the 72 uk...looks a little better with the pv seemingly more west a bit. Still not screamin massive phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well the gfs is suppression city and has the block on up in Canada. This is getting beyond ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Dr. No needs to show something at 00z tonight or 12z or we can call the cab again for the Fat Lady.... Agree Buck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Of course it is way east. Unless something happens, that poor s/w is going to get crushed so far east, even Burmuda will be dicey. SE diving northern streams are killa's in this type of setup. This is a southern storm now whether minor or more signifigent. Same thing happened late last January to the "Roger Smith bomb". Northern stream wouldn't amplify and you were left with a squished system down south. Let the warm up commence. You're brave making that guarantee this far out. I'm still thinking it'll come north. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Given the proximity of the two storms, and the lack of a northern s/w rounding the PV to induce a phase, I'm putting the chances of this being anything this far north at less than 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Dr. No needs to show something at 00z tonight or 12z or we can call the cab again for the Fat Lady.... Agree Buck? I wont throw it in until the Tuesday night runs, that should give the second wave plenty of time to exit. I wont throw er' in until that system is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Dr. No needs to show something at 00z tonight or 12z or we can call the cab again for the Fat Lady.... Agree Buck? i agree. So far the PV placement on the nam, gfs, and uk (granted only out to 72) all have it way too east and south to allow anything to even remotely be able to turn north anywhere to the left of the coast. I can understand JB being JB, but Im kind of surprised to see LC jumping all over this. Unless they believe the pv is being mishandled, but if that's the case we better start seeing a correction like really fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I wont throw it in until the Tuesday night runs, that should give the second wave plenty of time to exit. I wont throw er' in until that system is done. yea right.....Dilly we know you better then that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yea right.....Dilly we know you better then that Well considering there was a massive shift just 18hrs out for the system today, no way. I'll at least wait until the monday storm is gone. I cant give up on this one Buck, this could possibly be the last one we get to track if a lot of people are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's been a good run the last 6 weeks or so. Multiple storms threats, multiple storm threads. Next week looks like it'll be our first lull in the action since December. Here's hoping to a last hurrah thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I bet LC changes his tone tommorrow. This would be worse model failure than the moderate snowstorm we just had. This type of 500mb mistake would be epic. yup and this is a major feature we are talking about. This is not a situation where there's 5 pieces of energy on the map that all have yet to be sampled and all the models are interacting them differently. It's pretty straight forward...where's the PV sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 After this week winters finally taking a break for 10-14 days by that time we will headed into March and the pattern could favor a 2008 type set up if you know what I mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 After this week winters finally taking a break for 10-14 days by that time we will headed into March and the pattern could favor a 2008 type set up if you know what I mean... they gotta be big ones and come early in march or I'll take a pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 nogaps still crushing as well...just fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 they gotta be big ones and come early in march or I'll take a pass... Yeah colder pattern could return between the 24th-2nd I say then we have anywhere from 2-3 weeks to get something the earlier the better because as we get later its going to get mighty tough to pull something out of the hat. The spring looks crappy to say the least.. Cool and wet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 looking at that gfs run for this week.... poor JB, he's gotta be pounding back a bottle of pepto. Incredibly forgettable february week ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 looking at that gfs run for this week.... poor JB, he's gotta be pounding back a bottle of pepto. Incredibly forgettable february week ahead Here is cosgrove's track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 unless the PV cooperates with some energy, nothing is going to happen further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ggem says congrats richmond on your mod snow....still a weak pos that rides off the southeast coast. we about running out of miracles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ggem says congrats richmond on your mod snow....still a weak pos that rides off the southeast coast. we about running out of miracles Yeap! You going to wait for Dr.No to disappoint us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Any hope for this storm died during the Friday 12z's when the models shifted their trough axis up north. Stunning change really, but have seen it before for the 3rd straight winter. Everybody I-70 north is dead. South of I-70, they still got a shot if it can amplify enough, but a west/east runner this will be. Monster JB bomb dead. I'm going to laugh if you get burned. It's too soon to be guaranteeing anything one way or the other right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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