TheWeatherPimp Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 am not throwing in the towel yet...hopefully an inverted trough will set up and give usa 2-4 inch here.. Normally by this point, I'd be ready to throw in the towel but not with this one. Until the models tie up the loose ends with this and the next wave, obviously they will struggle later on in the end. The potential is definitely there................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Normally by this point, I'd be ready to throw in the towel but not with this one. Until the models tie up the loose ends with this and the next wave, obviously they will struggle later on in the end. The potential is definitely there................. This.. This looks a bit like how the blizzard was modeled. Recall that had a system just ahead of it as well that the models struggled with which ended up taking the southern route and off the se coast quietly out to sea. So yeah it would be wise to wait and see what happens with this current and the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 HRRR handled the blizzard and this surprise snow rather well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Normally by this point, I'd be ready to throw in the towel but not with this one. Until the models tie up the loose ends with this and the next wave, obviously they will struggle later on in the end. The potential is definitely there................. Not throwing in the towel yet here but I want to see some more positive changes soon. Either slow down the southern s/w/ bring the northern one farther west to increase the phasing potential or get it so far out of the way that it can't act as a suppressor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 How can anyone even remotely be worried about this thing not changing? What did we just have 18hrs out? a shift of 200 miles? My guess is models arent handling this one very well because of the current system and the monday system. Get those two out of there and we will see what models are showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z gfs says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 From a triple phase/inland runner pov, we are due for some form of one. 1864 1894 1918 1950 1978 The first 2 are speculative, 1918 is pretty clear by the old NOAA maps. 50 was the odd ball but peaked over the Cleveland area. But this setup isn't going to do it. Looks like at best a southern stream storm with little phasing. But the models teased. The 0z Friday Euro for sure. I cannot believe one of the guys at GRR even dared to make a comparison to 78 with the blizzard. Not even close to being in the same ballpark and not just in my backyard either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I cannot believe one of the guys at GRR even dared to make a comparison to 78 with the blizzard. Not even close to being in the same ballpark and not just in my backyard either. Who compared it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 In terms of impact and severity and stuff, I'd put the recent event somewhere between 1978 and 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I wonder if the western blocking isn't breaking down faster than progged 2 days ago, is the problem. Seems to be causing a more progressive flow. Has a bit to do with a *supposed* disturbance passing just north of the lakes helping to suppress and as well the system ahead of it. Again we need this next system to be weaker and moving quickly so it cant tap anything from Canada or act like a blocker. Hopefully this crap today has robbed all the moisture for the next one so it can keep trucking along and stay as weak as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, but I am not sure it it a blocker. The PV simply is diving in southeast rather than digging south. That looks like the bigger issue. That same storm was modelled similiar in earlier runs when they were hinting at amplifications. Seems like the problem is in nw canada. And the reason the PV dives in is because of that next system helps to pull it in. This is almost exactly the same thing as to what the models did with the blizzard. Not saying the same happens again either but the door is still there. This as well argues hard about the PV or whatever dropping in. The quick rise up into the unknown with the AO might also explain the last minute jump with todays system. Models always struggle with such stuff. This will give a whole new meaning to thread the needle if this event finds a way of staying east of the apps and nailing i95. Possible but i would not place any bets on it. JMHO Could end up being nothing as well and thus just a weak disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow, I didn't realize the AO had spiked to about +4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 And the reason the PV dives in is because of that next system helps to pull it in. This is almost exactly the same thing as to what the models did with the blizzard. Not saying the same happens again either but the door is still there. This as well argues hard about the PV or whatever dropping in. The quick rise up into the unknown with the AO might also explain the last minute jump with todays system. Models always struggle with such stuff. This will give a whole new meaning to thread the needle if this event finds a way of staying east of the apps and nailing i95. Possible but i would not place any bets on it. JMHO Could end up being nothing as well and thus just a weak disturbance. I forget what was in front if the mw blizzard? Anything? Were the models showing anything 4-5 days out when they had it further se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Has a bit to do with a *supposed* disturbance passing just north of the lakes helping to suppress and as well the system ahead of it. Again we need this next system to be weaker and moving quickly so it cant tap anything from Canada or act like a blocker. Hopefully this crap today has robbed all the moisture for the next one so it can keep trucking along and stay as weak as possible. Harry what do the euro ensembles look like? any nw solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LC's on board! Here is his discussion from this evening, also worth noting that he is calling for 3-6 inches Monday and Tuesday across the Lower Ohio Valley. After dumping heavy snowfall over the Rocky Mountains, the low should undergo a deepening phase across central Texas before tracking through the Deep South (roughly along Interstate 10). I expect a turn north-northeast, just to the right of the Appalachian Mountains, through the major cities of the Interstate 95 corridor. Again, I will state that the surface track is pushed to the left of what is shown on the ECMWF panels, and probably will be accelerated as well. This feature represents yet another heavy snowfall threat to the Dallas/Fort-Worth metroplex, with cities such as Texarkana AR, Memphis TN, Louisville KY, all of the major cities in Ohio, Pittsburgh PA, and Buffalo NY implicated in a risk for heavy snow or ice. Sleet and freezing rain will again be an issue, especially in Appalachia. A snow/sleet to rain scenario seems the most likely option for the megalopolis above the Mason-Dixon Line. Strong thunderstorms are also a possibility, along the Gulf Coast and in portions of the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LC is going inland track..great hit for Pitt,buffalo etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I forget what was in front if the mw blizzard? Anything? Were the models showing anything 4-5 days out when they had it further se? There was a weak disturbance that traveled across the south and went off the SE coast ( quietly ) that models had struggled a bit with. Harry what do the euro ensembles look like? any nw solutions? If there is they are too weak and thus are not showing up on the spag plots. Thus the option of a weak system remains a possibility as well. Ofcourse they did this with the blizz as well at about this point if i recall correctly. Basically stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Regardless of the telconnections, I think SE MI will miss out on this one. Too many storms on the heels of each other and if phasing occurs it will occur to late IMO. Stil a chance though. A lot will depend on what happens with the monday storm. I believe we want that storm more south and weak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 After what happened today, I'll take care to look at the models for this system tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 lol got to love it - the 0z NAM sure throws a wrench in the Monday ordeal. Yeesh. Yep. On the flip side, it looks like the 9th event would/will be coming in a bit farther north on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Well, I would much rather cash my snow chips in on the mid-week system that this little one. Let's hope we see some positive trends. I agree with you Beau. I would much rather have the mid-week system. To hell with the first one. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Monday system looks to move out quickly and not hang around off the coast like it was earlier runs. Pretty big storm but doesn't bomb out. If phasing can occur this might be able to move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Monday system looks to move out quickly and not hang around off the coast like it was earlier runs. Pretty big storm but doesn't bomb out. If phasing can occur this might be able to move north. Here is the problem at the moment. Area circled in red. That needs to go in either direction the arrows are pointing OR just not be there. It is what prevents the system from coming north. And yes the Monday system does look to be moving out quicker on this model and that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z NAM nasty baroclinic zone down in sw TX....right around Marfa, TX lol just not a "marfa front" KS/OK already getting a solid snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Here is the problem at the moment. Area circled in red. That needs to go in either direction the arrows are pointing OR just not be there. It is what prevents the system from coming north. And yes the Monday system does look to be moving out quicker on this model and that helps. Is the circled item the Pv? Left over vortex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Here is the problem at the moment. Area circled in red. That needs to go in either direction the arrows are pointing OR just not be there. It is what prevents the system from coming north. And yes the Monday system does look to be moving out quicker on this model and that helps. Agree...it's got one of two options lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Is the circled item the Pv? Left over vortex? PV is up where 474 is at. This is basically a piece of energy that drops in from the artic/Just north of Alaska. You can follow it from start to finish on the run. Thus as well the chances for this being modeled correctly are probably slim as well. So yeah there is plenty of room and time left for big adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Pretty nice to get a couple storm to reconfirm the possibilities of NW shifts...before this, it was "suppressed because that's been the winter pattern" comments to beat the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 PV is up where 474 is at. This is basically a piece of energy that drops in from the artic/Just north of Alaska. You can follow it from start to finish on the run. Thus as well the chances for this being modeled correctly are probably slim as well. So yeah there is plenty of room and time left for big adjustments. Nice write up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 PV is up where 474 is at. This is basically a piece of energy that drops in from the artic/Just north of Alaska. You can follow it from start to finish on the run. Thus as well the chances for this being modeled correctly are probably slim as well. So yeah there is plenty of room and time left for big adjustments. just very odd that not a single model is showing a storm inland. You would think at least one of the blind ones would have stumbled on the nut by now. I'll be very skeptical if Dr. No doesn't have it by tomorrow 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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