buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The majority of models were similar to his analogs. I think he may have jumped the gun but it wasn't a crazy analysis of the models at that time. I don't think this was that crazy of a call, it wasn't just one model showing this. He never set it in stone just said next week could be epic. Actually he did set it in stone, (as much as you can possibly do so on a forecast at least). When you pull crazy analogs of storms of the century out and use descriptions including nuclear war, that's pretty close to setting an idea in stone this far out. All that being said...he could still be right i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 see what i just posted, i watched his special big dog sometimes people go extreme on what he says. He's a weenie at times just like us and just highlighted what the models were showing, he never guaranteed a storm or said this will be the biggest storm this winter just showed what the models had and outlined the potential for next week. I've followed him for 10 years now way b4 pro when his videos are free he gets amped up and goes overboard but this wasn't an event that he guaranteed to occur similar to what every one here was saying when the models came out. even the craziest met would never do that. I mean if that's what get's him off the hook, (he never guaranteed), then c'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The majority of models were similar to his analogs. I think he may have jumped the gun but it wasn't a crazy analysis of the models at that time. I don't think this was that crazy of a call, it wasn't just one model showing this. He never set it in stone just said next week could be epic. Wrong. He said "you will walk our of your house and it'll be like you were in a nuclear war, you'll look around and they'll be nothing and you'll wonder what now" and "this will be the worst in recorded history" sounded set in stone to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Uncle Ukie has a bomb off of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Completely agree with Buckeye. I don't normally get wrapped up in his videos or discussions, but this was not just a model analysis, this was a definite forecast. He made some bold calls, and now he better hope Dr. No throws him a bone tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Uncle Ukie has a bomb off of Cape Cod. How does it get there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 How does it get there? New Orleans to South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 New Orleans to South Carolina looks like it tries to bring a reflection up the apps then develops well off the carolina coast and bombs off new england. Hard to tell but might even be too far east for most of the midatlantic. i'll take it as a possible baby step considering its 132hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 UKMET has as bad if not worse(I know it is hard to believe) handlement of the northern branch than the GFS. Not a believeable run. im not sure what's missing. The ggem starts to look really nice with the trough. I'm assuming we have no northern chunk of the pv diving in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Say it isn't so the EURO has bowed to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 what's that?....the euro is holding back energy and thus sending the low off the southeast coast at 144..... hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 EURO is SE of its 12z run. Im about to pull the plug on the "WAR HEAD" I'll wait J.I.C. the models arent handling it correctly because of the other two.. I mean there isnt a lot of consensus with the system tomorrow lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 what's that?....the euro is holding back energy and thus sending the low off the southeast coast at 144..... hmmmm hmmmmmm Well its not in its "Zone" yet in about 36-48hrs it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You cursed us Buckeye... We looked good when you wasnt signing in anonymous, and now that you are again, the models have went to sh*t lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 hmmmmmm Well its not in its "Zone" yet in about 36-48hrs it will be. yup i said whatever the euro does with the low inside 120 is probably it. so right now, inside 120 we have a 1002 low sitting just north of the central gulf. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You cursed us Buckeye... We looked good when you wasnt signing in anonymous, and now that you are again, the models have went to sh*t lol fixed... next time i disappear it's cuz im goin to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 fixed... next time i disappear it's cuz im goin to bed LOL.. Yea, will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Euro was by far the best for us.. I dont really trust it in the short range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The euro sucks for me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GRR's Long term, giving all of us hope. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH AROUND 110W MOVES TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH DIGS AS AN ARCTIC JET DIVES SOUTH FROM NORTH OF ALASKA INTO ALBERTA. WHILE THAT IS HAPPENING A TANDEM JET ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS DIVING DOWN IN FRONT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. SO HERE IS OUR ISSUE FOR LATE WEEK... HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS? TYPICALLY THE MODELS UNDERPLAY THE DIGGING ARCTIC JET. THE SNOW STORM/BLIZZARD OF THIS PAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WAS THE RESULT OF A SIMILAR EVENT WITH GOOD PHASING. HOW THE PHASING OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE WHERE THAT SYSTEM GOES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SLOW THAT SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVE IT GO OFF THE EAST COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE SHEARED OUT LIKE IT DID INITIALLY WITH THE BLIZZARD WE HAD EARLY IN THE WEEK. I STILL SAY WE HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM... I STILL DO NOT KNOW WHY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET CAN NOT DIG MORE AND CAUSE BETTER PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS WEST OF MICHIGAN. THAT WOULD BRING THE FIRST SYSTEM OUT INTO OHIO AND BRING US SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. I KNOW I DO NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS BUT NONE OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE SNOW OVER OUR SE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON EVEN YESTERDAY. ALSO THE ECWMF DID BEST ON THE BLIZZARD... AND IT IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE GFS LATE IN THE WEEK. I JUST DO NOT TRUST OR REALLY BELIEVE THE GFS LATE IN THE WEEK FOR OUR AREA. IN ANY EVENT FOR NOW THIS IS THE PICTURE I WILL PAINT FOR US... NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO OUR WESTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME QUESTION ON HOW THAT PLAY OUT TOO. SOME VERSIONS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHILE OTHER MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FORCE A MORE WESTERLY FLOW BUT A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL BUT WILL BE LIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS MOST PRONOUNCED. EVEN THEN THROUGH THE FLOW OVER MI IS SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC. I AM NOT SURE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REALLY STOP. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MINUS TEENS SO THAT IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. SO FOR NOW I HAVE FLURRIES WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT THE COLDEST AIR OF SEASON COME IN AND LIKELY WE WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM HOLLAND NORTH. OF COURSE IF THE SOUTHERNS STREAM STORM TURNS MORE NORTHEAST AS I THINK IT MAY... WE COULD HAVE A TOTALLY DIFFERENT IMAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK... IT WOULD BE MUCH SNOWIER AND LESS COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 If it makes anyone feel better...a couple of local mets on Detroit TV show a snowstorm for the Thurs - Fri time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GRR's Long term, giving all of us hope. wow... grr eh? even down here in cmh i need about a 750 mile shift nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 well not to beat a stale drum, but it all depends on phasing as we know, and how the PV wants to get involved and what position/shape it takes. there is plenty of room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z Nam, getting interesting...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z Nam, getting interesting...... Cause it can be trusted (sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z NAM.. Close to going boom, but we know how it performed earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 NCEP models dont dig the energy as far W as prior, thus deceasing the spacing between the 2 events. there are still significant differences though still with the PV handling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 NAM is way slower with wave 2 and way stronger and north with wave 3 like the gem. GFS is suppression city again. UKMET looks like gfs threw 72, imo. gem out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 gem looks more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 JB isn't throwing in the towel yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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