buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So JB is still ramped up and ready to blast off with next week's weather? no update on the situation since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS gonna be way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Too much leftover confluence. What parts/ energy are potentially phasing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Like it matters. Until a more realistic solution comes up with the early week system, anything after is useless to analyze. Who's analyzing? What I wrote was completely descriptive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yea and I've got a feeling that will increase as we move through next week STOP right there. This is how you set yourself up to get upset later. Don't build this up in your mind beyond what is likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 a bus nor train is gonna do next week justice.....hang on Hahaha! Reminds me of Dr. Strangelove....with JB instead of Slim Pickens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Every situation is different, but with the recent blizzard we had small incremental bumps north on the GFS with a bigger bump around 96-108 hours out. Given the GFS biases, it's hard to accept what it's showing. It may verify, but I may win the lottery tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 IMPORTANT MESSAGE: I am not accusing JB of being a Nazi, or Nazi sympathizer. I saw the nuc post and thought the same thing as an earlier poster, he is my take. I think we should re-title this thread Joe Bastardi, or How I learned to stop worrying and love the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 IMPORTANT MESSAGE: I am not accusing JB of being a Nazi, or Nazi sympathizer. I saw the nuc post and thought the same thing as an earlier poster, he is my take. I think we should re-title this thread Joe Bastardi, or How I learned to stop worrying and love the hype. JB wouldnt be happy with you giving him a turkey neck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Every situation is different, but with the recent blizzard we had small incremental bumps north on the GFS with a bigger bump around 96-108 hours out. Given the GFS biases, it's hard to accept what it's showing. It may verify, but I may win the lottery tomorrow. I agree but there wasn't several storms in front of it to affect the amplification of the recent blizzard. Or maybe gfs is wrong about the storms in front of this storm. Gotta love grr's afds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree but there wasn't several storms in front of it to affect the amplification of the recent blizzard. Or maybe gfs is wrong about the storms in front. Gotta love grr's afds. I think this is a good point. With the ORD blizzard we had a decent amount of downstream ridging and the stream interaction was taking place near the west coast. In the case of the late week storm potential, even when the EURO was showing a more favorable solution, like at 0z/4, the phase was taking place in the Plains. That doesn't necessarily mean that a more westerly track isn't possible, but there's a lot less margin for error. Timing and placement of features are going to be much more important as any kind of disjointedness will cause the storm to be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I bet DT would have some interesting comments about the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think this is a good point. With the ORD blizzard we had a decent amount of downstream ridging and the stream interaction was taking place near the west coast. In the case of the late week storm potential, even when the EURO was showing a more favorable solution, like at 0z/4, the phase was taking place in the Plains. That doesn't necessarily mean that a more westerly track isn't possible, but there's a lot less margin for error. Timing and placement of features are going to be much more important as any kind of disjointedness will cause the storm to be suppressed. I can buy suppressed but the GFS takes it to another level. FWIW, the 18z DGEX has more robust development and a decent event for parts of the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Every situation is different, but with the recent blizzard we had small incremental bumps north on the GFS with a bigger bump around 96-108 hours out. Given the GFS biases, it's hard to accept what it's showing. It may verify, but I may win the lottery tomorrow. This made me lol. The GFS chances of verifying right now is like winning the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 GRR. The middle brother between DTX and LOT. That early morning AFD was one for the weenies. But was rather interesting in a way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I personally love to hear what JB has to say. With that said I think there is little doubt he is the king of weeniedom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I was talking to Alek earlier and in the boat with him with being in a wait and see mode with this one after following our blizzard for 10 days, alittle drained to say the least lol The GRR afd this morning was def interesting and caught my attention. I'm not to the point of staying up late to see what the Euro shows.....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like there is some potential on the 84hr nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 differences between the 0z NAM and 12z GFS southern stream wave diving further south and west with the northern stream energy coming down west of the GFS as well.. NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The 00z NAM looks like it is definitely trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like the 00z GFS will recover a little from the uber suppressed 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 canadian continues to advertise a nice wave along the arctic front with decent precip thru the OV... ...but as far as JB's nuke, not so much, doesn't even make dirty bomb criteria....maybe pipe bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 JB has hyped this so much, he needs the trough to super amplify to even come close. To be honest, I dont think JB cares either way. As long as he gets a paycheck and is able to pay his monthly gym fee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 JB has hyped this so much, he needs the trough to super amplify to even come close. more than that.... he needs at least ONE model to show something....probably in the next 24 hrs. I have a hard time believeing Dr. No wouldn't have sniffed out by tonite's run if it was gonna happen. Without that bomb, it's a run of the mill cold feb week....quite forgettable and definitely not even close to the worst winter week of feb in the last 50 years nationwide, (which is what he said). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 To be honest, I dont think JB cares either way. As long as he gets a paycheck and is able to pay his monthly gym fee. excellent point. Maybe the price of protein powder skyrocketed and he needs some extra cash....ie subscription sign ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 more than that.... he needs at least ONE model to show something....probably in the next 24 hrs. I have a hard time believeing Dr. No wouldn't have sniffed out by tonite's run if it was gonna happen. Without that bomb, it's a run of the mill cold feb week....quite forgettable and definitely not even close to the worst winter week of feb in the last 50 years nationwide, (which is what he said). actually he said the worst in recorded history lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 actually he said the worst in recorded history lol lol...stand corrected He always has his usual spin card he can use: "look folks, it might not have shown on the surface but at 500 millibars it was WILD!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 JB has hyped this so much, he needs the trough to super amplify to even come close. The majority of models were similar to his analogs. I think he may have jumped the gun but it wasn't a crazy analysis of the models at that time. I don't think this was that crazy of a call, it wasn't just one model showing this. He never set it in stone just said next week could be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 excellent point. Maybe the price of protein powder steroids skyrocketed and he needs some extra cash....ie subscription sign ups. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 lol...stand corrected He always has his usual spin card he can use: "look folks, it might not have shown on the surface but at 500 millibars it was WILD!!!" see what i just posted, i watched his special big dog sometimes people go extreme on what he says. He's a weenie at times just like us and just highlighted what the models were showing, he never guaranteed a storm or said this will be the biggest storm this winter just showed what the models had and outlined the potential for next week. I've followed him for 10 years now way b4 pro when his videos are free he gets amped up and goes overboard but this wasn't an event that he guaranteed to occur similar to what every one here was saying when the models came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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