Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Canuck makes a good point with the S/w in the prairies regardless, im looking at the 12z euro and dont see anything other than the PV determining how it wants to interact with this wave that will result in the outcome the flow is moving along, there is no block of significance, the pac ridge is well west, and the spacing on the euro is better.....note the energy digs further west and its quite a bit slower than the GFS. interestingly by day 5, you can really see how this could cut west if the S/w as Cancuk pointed out was still there. this is also a day 6-7 event so thats way out there. the PV is often not well handled at even short ranges IMO, nevermind day 6-7. again, if i was in the eastern MW at least and the OV for sure and of course the east coast potentially too.........this is a significant threat for a potential major storm pending PV interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 SPG .67 for sunday .40 for the "big" one STL .11 for monday tuesday .29 wednesday thursday PAH .50 monday tuesday thursday .62 OKC .24 for Sunday Monday, big one is .52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CMH .22 tomorrow .41 monday/tuesday .41 for Thursday So either way it looks like a snowy week cmh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 took the words out of my mouth! Let's hope this is this storm's "burp" run. We'll see. Hard to have a lot of confidence in anything given the model performance that we're seeing with the next couple of smaller events. A little off topic but for the event tomorrow, check out the 12z GFS compared to the 00z run. 12z 00z Not an insignificant difference for being this close in and it's a trend that is showing up on other 12z solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 cmon dilly - maps please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We'll see. Hard to have a lot of confidence in anything given the model performance that we're seeing with the next couple of smaller events. A little off topic but for the event tomorrow, check out the 12z GFS compared to the 00z run. 12z 00z Not an insignificant difference for being this close in and it's a trend that is showing up on other 12z solutions. That is the difference from nothing to 2-4 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 cmon dilly - maps please Go to my website and latest news, i got one posted for the weekend. I dont make maps 4 days out lol. Will probably make one for the monday event tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmt Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 SPG .67 for sunday .40 for the "big" one STL .11 for monday tuesday .29 wednesday thursday PAH .50 monday tuesday thursday .62 OKC .24 for Sunday Monday, big one is .52 Can someone give JLN please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.ohiovalleywx.com/?page_id=92 nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 SPG .67 for sunday .40 for the "big" one STL .11 for monday tuesday .29 wednesday thursday PAH .50 monday tuesday thursday .62 OKC .24 for Sunday Monday, big one is .52 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That is the difference from nothing to 2-4 tonight. With this active Pac wave train/southwest flow type events, I strongly believe we're going to be seeing some of the same model issues/biases that have shown up in previous Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.ohiovalle...com/?page_id=92 nice work Yeah looking good, Dilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah looking good, Dilly! Thank ya. Trying to keep it simple for the normal people lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nice IND AFD discussion, talking about totals and model concerns, for all 3 storms: UPDATE THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW SYNOPSIS SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FIRST...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SECOND...ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA MAY BRING ACCUMULATION SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND...FINALLY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ACCUMULATION SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING DIFFICULTIES WITH COMPACY UPPER LOW NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE FASTEST AND 12Z NAM THE SLOWEST TO MOVE IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. STILL...ALL MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTANT ON A FURTHER NORTH PLACEMENT ON QPF AND SIMILAR IN AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH GFS IS A BIT HIGHER AND RULED OUT BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM AND BEING AN OUTLIER. WILL GO WITH OTHER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TAPPERING TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA AND LESSER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST. SO...WILL RAMP UP POPS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW MOST CLOSELY THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH TAKE THE UPPER LOW TO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 18Z SATURDAY. ALSO...WILL NEED TO HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS. STILL...MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW AND ALSO POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WITH ANY LEFTOVER ICE UNDERNEATH. MOS TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE WITH ONLY SMALL DROPS TONIGHT IN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MODEST RISES TOMORROW. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING AND POPS ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TO THE SHORT TERM AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM DIGS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE BEING TOO FAST TO BRING QPF IN...BRINGING IT IN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE...THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SEEM TOO SLOW NOT BRINGING QPF INTO THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WITH MODELS NOT COMING TOGETHER VERY WELL...PREFER MIDDLE OF THE ROAD 09Z SREF AND 12Z GEM WHICH BRING PRECIP TO THE WESTERN INDIANA BY 18Z AND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY 00Z MONDAY. SO...WENT WITH SMALL MORNING POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND GOOD CHANCE POPS SUNNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. MOS SUGGEST SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL INDIANA COULD SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ALL SNOW ELSEWHERE AND AFTER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE ALL SPITTING OUT 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT. TOO EARLY TO GO LIKELY BUT WILL MENTION SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE NAM MOS LOOKS TOO WARM THINGS UP A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...WENT WITH COOLER GFS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLES REGARDING TIMING...STRENGTH AND RESULTANT QPF FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGHENING GULF AND THEN EAST COAST SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE GEM AND ECMWF WERE MUCH CLOSER AND STRONGER AND BOTH DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE RIVER. WITH ECMWF TYPICALLY THE BETTER EXTENDED MODEL THAN THE GFS AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GEM...WILL STICK CLOSER TO A ECMWF AND GEM BLEND. BOTH OF THESE MODELS WERE SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTANT 8 PLUS INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HEART OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE THE GFS HAD SIMILAR AMOUNTS BUT WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SO FOR NOW...WILL BUMP UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...TOO EARLY TO THROW SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDDS. TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. STILL...THINK THE HPC OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TOO COLD AT TIMES WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK BETTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thank ya. Trying to keep it simple for the normal people lol. thank you. us dummies need more graphics and less verbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 two things to keep in mind wrt the euro. at day 6 it has a storm forming over the gulf states... and day 7 (not it's accurate timeframe), that it sends the low ots. this will change,,,, and most likely nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CMH .22 tomorrow .41 monday/tuesday .41 for Thursday So either way it looks like a snowy week cmh. 'bout a foot of snow in 6 days coming up. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 'bout a foot of snow in 6 days coming up. nice Yea and I've got a feeling that will increase as we move through next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If you guys can post QPF for SPG, STL, PAducah, CAPE, and Columbia MO, thank you. looks like a huge hit for southern counties here who deserve one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Haven't really looked too much into the threat next week, but I hope you guys from St. Louis through Indiana and Ohio can cash in. We've definitely had our fair share for the winter. Spread the wealth!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Until we get these first two systems out of the way, it is going to be a nightmare trying to pinpoint a forecast track for the third system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Until we get these first two systems out of the way, it is going to be a nightmare trying to pinpoint a forecast track for the third system. at least we got some appetizers while we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 at least we got some appetizers while we wait Monday and Tuesday looks like a solid 3-6 inches for much of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Monday and Tuesday looks like a solid 3-6 inches for much of us Aren't surface temps too warm for a lot of that to stick? Although the low track did shift south on this run so maybe that helps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Aren't surface temps too warm for a lot of that to stick? Although the low track did shift south on this run so maybe that helps... i was wondering about temps as well. NOt much mention of it but there may be some issues, especially south of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Winter wx adv up for Cincy, Dayton, and Columbus. ILN says 1-3. I agree for the most part with the heaviest axis affecting all 3 cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BRING IT! New update from the Springfield, MO NWS Office - LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...ONE WORD. COLD. WE COULD SEE SOME HISTORIC TYPE COLD WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. Beau = Jeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 a bus nor train is gonna do next week justice.....hang on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 a bus nor train is gonna do next week justice.....hang on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So JB is still ramped up and ready to blast off with next week's weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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