buckeye Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The CMC looked like it was going to explode too. THe EURO is close but no cigar... If the EURO shows this westerly track on Friday.. BOOK IT! euro is still far out enough to discount. But yea, if inside of 120 it's still cutting, book it. ukie is suppressed, ggem looks like a nonevent, nogaps suppressed(no surprise), jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looking at the JMA 2.00 QPF.... LOL.... Be nice if the doctor can bow down to the JMA by Friday.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looking at the JMA 2.00 QPF.... LOL.... Be nice if the doctor can bow down to the JMA by Friday.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 lol. I'm gonna keep my storm tracking to within 96. Lost a lot of productivity for a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 CMC.. THink its a non event beyond this? Who has 168hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I wonder what the CMC was going to due beyond 144hr??? Any idea? out to sea....that 5 h trough was incredibly broad hmm or maybe not...maybe it would come north more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 lol. I'm gonna keep my storm tracking to within 96. Lost a lot of productivity for a little snow. Euro I think is the most accurate model 4-5 days out.I agree though 4 days out should be the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 CMC.. THink its a non event beyond this? Who has 168hr? is there a ggem/jma rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looking at the Tellies shows the pattern looks good for a MW/GL/OV classic moderate winter storm. It rides on if the energy can get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z JMA!!! Buckeye Special! If you believe the JMA I have some swampland to sell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The EURO with its westerly track still keeps the upper levels supportive for snow. 2m temps are marginal but u know the EURO and 2m temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well, I almost don't feel like following another storm right now, but hopefully we get a NW trend. you'll be here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anyone know if the GOM will still be open to business? If so, could be another nice event for someone in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro, GEM, and some of the gfs ensembles give STL a 4-8 inch snow. the cold is locked in...so this would be like a clipper tracking threw Canada and its all snow no matter the low track. quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 If you believe the JMA I have some swampland to sell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS hour 120ish..Brewing up a screwballer. 120hrs+ BS oh well though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I hear ya there. In no way am I complaining and unsatisfied with how this winter has gone but eastern michigan ( might hit a foot today with this storm), eastern indiana most of ohio into western and central PA have yet to see a 12+ storm. Just about everywhere else has. Haven't even seen a 5" storm in central OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Haven't even seen a 5" storm in central OH. some years are better than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Here we go again. Keep in mind a few things that will affect usability of any model in this pattern (as we JUST saw with the last storm): GFS cold bias at this range, which can act to over-suppress storms at D4/D5+ GGEM progressive bias Euro southwest energy bias (doesn't appear to be a problem in this scenario though). Note the ridiculously pumped arctic high on the GEM and GFS, they were both forecasting in upwards of 1060 with the last one, it was some 8-10mb weaker in the end. Euro is still respectable, but more tamed. If the camp suddenly shifts to the Euro over the 24-36 hours, then its solution is good. +PNA/+NAO with the PV far enough north is generally a good pattern for MW/OV storms anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Here we go again. Keep in mind a few things that will affect usability of any model in this pattern (as we JUST saw with the last storm): GFS cold bias at this range, which can act to over-suppress storms at D4/D5+ GGEM progressive bias Euro southwest energy bias (doesn't appear to be a problem in this scenario though). Note the ridiculously pumped arctic high on the GEM and GFS, they were both forecasting in upwards of 1060 with the last one, it was some 8-10mb weaker in the end. Euro is still respectable, but more tamed. If the camp suddenly shifts to the Euro over the 24-36 hours, then its solution is good. +PNA/+NAO with the PV far enough north is generally a good pattern for MW/OV storms anyways. Is there any reason why "the camp" wouldn't shift to the Euro here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 you'll be here I will post if the trends are favorable, and if not, I'll just check in every once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro gives me .6 all snow. Nice dumping for everyone. And some JMA eye candy... Looks like the door is open for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 If I remember correctly the euro had this current storm a bit further Se and the NW trend started. I see that with this one too. No block different pattern. the NW trend lives! Euro had a MO Bootheel to Central Indiana track from 6 days out on that one, albeit it was weaker. And as for the reasons for them NOT to shift to the Euro, yes, there are a few, and not the least of which is sampling and wave interaction. We have an advantage this time around in that the wave in question is already over Alaska, so we are indeed getting some direct (if somewhat sparse) upper air and surface observation data sampling from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 How strong do you think this low can get in your best guess? I know it won't get as big as the last one, but is sub 998-1000 mb possible in that same track? And would the GOM be open for this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro had a MO Bootheel to Central Indiana track from 6 days out on that one, albeit it was weaker. And as for the reasons for them NOT to shift to the Euro, yes, there are a few, and not the least of which is sampling and wave interaction. We have an advantage this time around in that the wave in question is already over Alaska, so we are indeed getting some direct (if somewhat sparse) upper air and surface observation data sampling from it. Yea sparse is the word. Models haven't done very well with waves dropping out of canada for obvious reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro had a MO Bootheel to Central Indiana track from 6 days out on that one, albeit it was weaker. And as for the reasons for them NOT to shift to the Euro, yes, there are a few, and not the least of which is sampling and wave interaction. We have an advantage this time around in that the wave in question is already over Alaska, so we are indeed getting some direct (if somewhat sparse) upper air and surface observation data sampling from it. Where did this last stom end up tracking? Just curious to see how well the Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yea sparse is the word. Models haven't done very well with waves dropping out of canada for obvious reasons This would be a bad track for DTW. In regards to a potential dry slot. Although ORD could do well. But at 100+ hrs and poor model consistency this isnt a lock by any means. This is almost weird...Wasnt last Thursday/Friday 0z runs when the EURO locked on to the Blizzard. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Are we going to discuss the Saturday-Sunday storm here... This one looks weaker but could be a moderate event for Buckeye and myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Pattern will be similar to what we have now but not exactly the same..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Are we going to discuss the Saturday-Sunday storm here... This one looks weaker but could be a moderate event for Buckeye and myself... I think we should start a separate thread. It will get too confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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