snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's one run of the GFS. Let's not turn into a negativity thread. The GFS sucked with the last system, while the Euro nailed it 7 days out, it flopped to the south on a couple runs, but went back towards its original solution. I don't think the weekend storm will have any effect. According to mos data its actually weaker than it showed 2 days ago. Monday system looks like it could be a 2-3" event across portions of the OV, but again I'm not thinking it will play a huge role. The big system is 4 days after that. 6 days out people let's not go negative over one gfs run. Keep it positive lol.. There's a fine line between being postive and being a weenie. The same can be said for being negative and being realistic. I think we're striking a good balance in this thread. We've outlined what the potential snags are and now we can watch how the models deal with them. 12z GGEM looks better than the GFS, but everything will still probably come together too far east based on sfc/H5 progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This, Ideally though the we would need the Monday system to be further north, else it would probably form a block off the East Coast. This is IF the further north track stays WEAK. I usually prefer the northern route because without the Alantic moisture systems tend to have a harder time blowing up so quickly. That ofcourse usually opens the door for the next one following it. The main idea is to keep the system moving along and weak so the following one has room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's one run of the GFS. Let's not turn into a negativity thread. The GFS sucked with the last system, while the Euro nailed it 7 days out, it flopped to the south on a couple runs, but went back towards its original solution. I don't think the weekend storm will have any effect. According to mos data its actually weaker than it showed 2 days ago. Monday system looks like it could be a 2-3" event across portions of the OV, but again I'm not thinking it will play a huge role. The big system is 4 days after that. 6 days out people let's not go negative over one gfs run. Keep it positive lol.. so if i read this correctly, you don't want this to get negative...i appreciate a mets view on this dilly. please issue a first call for sat, sun/mon and possible big daddy. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is IF the further north track stays WEAK. I usually prefer the northern route because without the Alantic moisture systems tend to have a harder time blowing up so quickly. That ofcourse usually opens the door for the next one following it. The main idea is to keep the system moving along and weak so the following one has room to amplify. someone needs to get this memo to the canadians.... really blows up the early week storm. That being said, it still manages to send a weak system up the apps at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's one run of the GFS. Let's not turn into a negativity thread. The GFS sucked with the last system, while the Euro nailed it 7 days out, it flopped to the south on a couple runs, but went back towards its original solution. I don't think the weekend storm will have any effect. According to mos data its actually weaker than it showed 2 days ago. Monday system looks like it could be a 2-3" event across portions of the OV, but again I'm not thinking it will play a huge role. The big system is 4 days after that. 6 days out people let's not go negative over one gfs run. Keep it positive lol.. wasn't seeing the negativity....just verbatim explanations of what the models were doing and why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Mondays storm just looked like a decent to weak storm. Now its looking to turn into a decent storm in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's one run of the GFS. Let's not turn into a negativity thread. The GFS sucked with the last system, while the Euro nailed it 7 days out, it flopped to the south on a couple runs, but went back towards its original solution. I don't think the weekend storm will have any effect. According to mos data its actually weaker than it showed 2 days ago. Monday system looks like it could be a 2-3" event across portions of the OV, but again I'm not thinking it will play a huge role. The big system is 4 days after that. 6 days out people let's not go negative over one gfs run. Keep it positive lol.. Were not being negative taking some basic meterology into account here my friend. One storm effects another and so fourth. I am concerned about the Monday storm crashing the party for late week. Many mets have made good points in that regard. I support their idea until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Mondays storm just looked like a decent to weak storm. Now its looking to turn into a decent storm in the NE. yea, something like 988 on the canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wasn't seeing the negativity....just verbatim explanations of what the model was doing and why. Fixed it. lol.. Im trying to stay positive after the last storm wrt the OV.. I kinda went off the deep end last one lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the GGEM actually keeps things moving along just fine and defintely shows plenty of potential for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 For sh*ts and giggles. Here are DT's thoughts lol This IMAGE should explain WHY this is looking more and more Like a Midwest Pattern. Like I said HERE and on the web site on WED ....the winter pattern that brought us the BIG NE snowstorms is OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the GGEM actually keeps things moving along just fine and defintely shows plenty of potential for the storm. after further review.....you are correct. In fact any stronger with that low at 144 and i might be sweating the wtod. amazing...according to the ggem we (cmh) have 2 light to mod events and 1 potentially big event...all coming within 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GEM still has 8-12 for southern part of our area..and 6-8 for the metro where I live. we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GEM still has 8-12 for southern part of our area..and 6-8 for the metro where I live. we will see. GEM has a nice hit down here in OK. Something to watch. Curious to see what the Euro shows in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Pretty large difference in how the 12z Euro is handling the Canadian wave at 96. I'm not sure how this will play out later in the run but I guess I wouldn't be surprised if it's more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 .41 for CMH for the Monday/Tuesday event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Noticed the GEFS, which yesterday showed many OV solutions, are now almost unanimously coastal or OTS solutions. Still plenty of time for things to change, but I'm starting to wonder if we jumped on this one too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 .41 for CMH for the Monday/Tuesday event.. Dayton i can only assume is similar to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Pretty large difference in how the 12z Euro is handling the Canadian wave at 96. I'm not sure how this will play out later in the run but I guess I wouldn't be surprised if it's more suppressed. Yup. Lost the Canadian Prairies s/w just like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Dayton i can only assume is similar to that? .25 for tomorrow and .52 monday/tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro H7 RH looks like STL would get it good wednesda. I heard the Euro has .18 tonight for us, and .30 monday. Radar looks great, lets hope this one over-performs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HAHAHA I bet JB is having a fit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, 12z Euro looks like it's going to be more suppressed. As said though, the changes in how it's handling some features compared to the 00z run are rather significant. It's probably still a little too early to buy into any specific solution verbatim. This run still looks like it could be decent for some of the OV crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HAHAHA I bet JB is having a fit! I bought a nuclear shelter because of what he was predicting, can I sue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I bought a nuclear shelter because of what he was predicting, can I sue? Well he still could be correct on a monster storm, but imo when a meteorologist hypes something the way he did yesterday, it could send non-weather intellegent people into a panic, imo he should be held accountable for any problems people had because of his use of words like "nuclear bomb" "apocalypse" etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Even though it'll be well south of its 0z run, it's probably still the best looking of the big 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Good news is, this is around the time frame it did the more suppressed look with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If you guys can post QPF for SPG, STL, PAducah, CAPE, and Columbia MO, thank you. looks like a huge hit for southern counties here who deserve one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Good news is, this is around the time frame it did the more suppressed look with the last storm took the words out of my mouth! Let's hope this is this storm's "burp" run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If you guys can post QPF for SPG, STL, PAducah, CAPE, and Columbia MO, thank you. looks like a huge hit for southern counties here who deserve one Can OKC also be added? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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