baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yup, but the northern stream digging and all the little variables with it, aren't sampled well in this range. They just show the potential. The fact is, the models are showing a amplifying northern stream coming into the plains. Nuff said. I love that trough axis. How much they dig or don't dig remains to be seen. By Monday, we should know alot more. No he is right--the Polar Vortex alone won't do much on its own. The southern stream wave is the cyclogenetic trigger in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Friv, if you want more detail: HR 0-96: .1-.25 HR 96-126: 0 HR 126-150: .4-.5 HR 150-192: .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yup, but the northern stream digging and all the little variables with it, aren't sampled well in this range. They just show the potential. The fact is, the models are showing a amplifying northern stream coming into the plains. Nuff said. I love that trough axis. How much they dig or don't dig remains to be seen. By Monday, we should know alot more. well yes we'll know more by monday but the spacing of the SW's doesn't argue for a further west phase. We'll see if the SW spacing is as far apart as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Dayton QPF from the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Dayton QPF from the Euro? .53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Go figure.. Detroit got dry-slotted on that one, too!! Sometimes all you can do is laugh. Dry slots love a good party in Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 well the 12z models may give us more insight...? maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sometimes all you can do is laugh. Dry slots love a good party in Detroit. All week long I have to explain to people On why we didnt get 12-18 inches. Its really annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Go figure.. Detroit got dry-slotted on that one, too!! Two day total was 19"??? Someone correct me if Im wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GRR WHAT IS MORE INTERESTING TO ME IS THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANDTHURSDAY. IT IS NOT CLEAR TO ME THAT THE STORM WILL GO UP THE EAST COAST... THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANGE GIVEN THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES AND THE TIMING OF THE PACIFIC JET ENERGY REACHING THE WEST COAST RIDGE...THAT THE THURSDAY SYSTEM COULD INDEED GIVE US ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. THE TREND OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH EACH RUN. GIVEN THE JET ENERGY FOR THIS IS NOW WEST OF THE DATELINE... THIS WOULD MAKE A SENSE TO ME TOO. DO NOT COUNT THAT SYSTEM OUT FOR US JUST YET. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 All week long I have to explain to people On why we didnt get 12-18 inches. Its really annoying. Yep. Yet most still got 8-12" over the 2 days, and these are the same people who when we get 3-4" instead of the forecasted 1-2" are like "why did we get SO much snow?". It IS annoying but whatever. Every storm has a dry slot, sometimes they hit here, sometimes they dont. The dryslot was overrated though this time. When you actually look at it, no one place really ever stopped snowing it just got light. A true dry slot will shut off the precip 100% for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Two day total was 19"??? Someone correct me if Im wrong There were a few 18-19" totals in the Saginaw Valley area, but in metro-Detroit totals ranged from 6-13", most places in the 8-12" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yep. Yet most still got 8-12" over the 2 days, and these are the same people who when we get 3-4" instead of the forecasted 1-2" are like "why did we get SO much snow?". It IS annoying but whatever. Every storm has a dry slot, sometimes they hit here, sometimes they dont. The dryslot was overrated though this time. When you actually look at it, no one place really ever stopped snowing it just got light. A true dry slot will shut off the precip 100% for a while. Issue across my area was that sleet mixed in, even though there was heavy prcp over my area it was sleeting for 3-4 hours. That cut down on accums a lot I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 well yes we'll know more by monday but the spacing of the SW's doesn't argue for a further west phase. We'll see if the SW spacing is as far apart as modeled. thats pretty much what i thought when reviewing the overnight models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 well yes we'll know more by monday but the spacing of the SW's doesn't argue for a further west phase. We'll see if the SW spacing is as far apart as modeled. This is my main concern as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Per GFS, Monster EC storm looks like it will supress the storm enough as it heads east . Either the main storm needs to slow down or the ec storm needs to get moving. As of now it does look like it will be atleast east of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Per GFS, Monster EC storm looks like it will supress the storm enough as it heads east . Either the main storm needs to slow down or the ec storm needs to get moving. As of now it does look like it will be atleast east of the apps. i would be leary to buy into a gfs solution of crushing a system beyond 120 hrs....especially when the euro is showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i would be leary to buy into a gfs solution of crushing a system beyond 120 hrs....especially when the euro is showing something. I agree. But if there is a large system in the NE like the GFS shows I would expect the euro to show a more supressed storm until it hits the coast. . Perhaps the GFS is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah the GFS is off the coast now. Hopefully the EURO will hold on tight to that inland track. As long as we got the doctor on our side were in good shape! Here is what has me concerned but it may have nothing to do with this storm. We are now the bullseye for the Saturday storm (2-4) then again on Sunday-Monday with another (2-4) what kind of effect will those snow events have on this storm? Little or a lot? What worries me is we have no snow cover and if these two storms lie down snow it could strengthen the cold and suppress this storm and cause it to be a coastal. I would much rather miss these two storms and get jack hammered late week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i would be leary to buy into a gfs solution of crushing a system beyond 120 hrs....especially when the euro is showing something. This, Ideally though the we would need the Monday system to be further north, else it would probably form a block off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree. But if there is a large system in the NE like the GFS shows I would expect the euro to show a more supressed storm until it hits the coast. . Perhaps the GFS is out to lunch. true...that first storm early next week could be the deflector southeast for the bigger one....but i'll only buy it if Dr. No does, otherwise i'll chalk it up to typical gfs shenanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah the GFS is off the coast now. Hopefully the EURO will hold on tight to that inland track. As long as we got the doctor on our side were in good shape! Here is what has me concerned but it may have nothing to do with this storm. We are now the bullseye for the Saturday storm (2-4) then again on Sunday-Monday with another (2-4) what kind of effect will those snow events have on this storm? Little or a lot? What worries me is we have no snow cover and if these two storms lie down snow it could strengthen the cold and suppress this storm and cause it to be a coastal. I would much rather miss these two storms and get jack hammered late week i dont think snowcover alone has much of an impact, especially if we get a phase somewhere around the miss valley....that ain't gonna matter. The bigger concern for me is pick your poison. Chances are a bigger event late weekend here probably indicates the low was stronger and farther south and would also suppress the bigger event. As you said, we might have to take one for the team, (a miss north), to improve our chances for the big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 true...that first storm early next week could be the deflector southeast for the bigger one....but i'll only buy it if Dr. No does, otherwise i'll chalk it up to typical gfs shenanigans. I see what your saying... This weekends storm is possibly causing the Monday storm to track further south which then will cause the Big Daddy to track south of that. So we get to light snowfalls and miss the big one. I'll take the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This, Ideally though the we would need the Monday system to be further north, else it would probably form a block off the East Coast. I think the lack of wavelength between the Monday storm and the late week storm is a potential suppressing agent for the latter storm. Another problem is that, unlike the EURO, the GFS doesn't have a secondary s/w rounding the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I see what your saying... This weekends storm is possibly causing the Monday storm to track further south which then will cause the Big Daddy to track south of that. So we get to light snowfalls and miss the big one. I'll take the big one! at this juncture i'm glad we're sweating a miss south and east vs.having the storm modelled perfectly for us. After last week i think it's clear the nw trend may have been resurrected...and it doesn't have a reverse gear once it shows itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think the lack of wavelength between the Monday storm and the late week storm is a potential suppressing agent for the latter storm. Another problem is that, unlike the EURO, the GFS doesn't have a secondary s/w rounding the PV Yeah both could have huge implications, but with this being a ways out there still things will change, the question is for the good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 model chaos they cant even get the next 36 hrs down straight i havent been a big fan of getting this minor weekend storm more amped and further west, ive thought that could cause a bottleneck and screw up everything possibly with a ripple effect. spacing defintely argues against a big storm unless some epic phasing can occur IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I see what your saying... This weekends storm is possibly causing the Monday storm to track further south which then will cause the Big Daddy to track south of that. So we get to light snowfalls and miss the big one. I'll take the big one! thats what she said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Creating a log jam.... If we don't get the big phaser then will the cold go beyond Mr. Bistardi's date of Valentines Day? Talk about a ripple effect..... The phaser is suppose to unleash the serious cold and snap the pattern without it............................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's one run of the GFS. Let's not turn into a negativity thread. The GFS sucked with the last system, while the Euro nailed it 7 days out, it flopped to the south on a couple runs, but went back towards its original solution. I don't think the weekend storm will have any effect. According to mos data its actually weaker than it showed 2 days ago. Monday system looks like it could be a 2-3" event across portions of the OV, but again I'm not thinking it will play a huge role. The big system is 4 days after that. 6 days out people let's not go negative over one gfs run. Keep it positive lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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