kab2791 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HR 162: 996 low in W. PA. So It continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HR 162: 996 low in W. PA. ahh thanks i was trying to guess based on 144 ya it seemed way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HR 168: 984 low in Boston. Low at 162 actually looks west of DC, not in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 JB's probably devestated. Not so much where the low tracked, but that it was only 996mb. i bet based on how the trough looked at 144 it goes to 970 pretty quickly just most likely north of the US border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HR 174: Sub 965 low north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 hmmm personally i'm thinking this is going to be an eastern MW/NE event i don't think this will ever track further west than Pitt and no further east than just off the eastcoast, tons of time but the euro needs to get wild in the next few runs for me to consider anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0.25 QPF through lower MI, great hit for OV on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't see how the EC gets a major bomb. The trough axis is to far west. If the Euro phases quicker it will move even further inland. How the GFS gets there is only like the GFS can do. I think it's such a deep trough that until that final piece of the northern energy digs in that it doesn't go full on bomb, like i was saying that trough axis is wayyyy west earlier on in the models, the initial S/W energy is over CA but with the triple phase, it's not until the northern energy associated with the PV finally digs in that the mean trough finally goes negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We should rename this thread and add arctic outbreak to it too. Ridic cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HR 192 has the low at sub 940. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We should rename this thread and add arctic outbreak to it too. Ridic cold. i can't wait til the f'in pv will either push west or north i'm sick of it sitting there lurking waiting to dump anytime we phase with the northern branch, it really isn't in a favorable position for a phase anywhere west of the mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i can't wait til the f'in pv will either push west or north i'm sick of it sitting there lurking waiting to dump anytime we phase with the northern branch, it really isn't in a favorable position for a phase anywhere west of the mississippi. Yeah but it is the dead of winter--climo wise this isn't typical season for big storms in ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We should rename this thread and add arctic outbreak to it too. Ridic cold. Can't be as cold as the GFS, can it? GFS was almost an all-time record for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HR 174: Sub 965 low north of the border. That beast gets down to about 940mb i do believe. WOW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah but it is the dead of winter--climo wise this isn't typical season for big storms in ND. oh i know but the long range is looking nice, like i was saying earlier we finally go into a -pna pattern and the alaskan ridge breaks down and the pv lifts north and west based on what most of the models show we should get active in about 10-14 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 oh i know but the long range is looking nice, like i was saying earlier we finally go into a -pna pattern and the alaskan ridge breaks down and the pv lifts north and west based on what most of the models show we should get active in about 10-14 days Right--a clipper train type pattern. I thought you were talking about monster winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can't wait for the cold wx... just shoot me and get this over with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Maybe but the pv is coming in over the plains. It digs and energy phases. Doesn't matter how deep the trough is. It phases from the axis. No the trough won't go negative until the northern stream digs into the base of the trough. The deeper the trough the further the northern stream S/W has to go to phase, the southern S/W isn't going to go negative unless the northern stream digs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can't be as cold as the GFS, can it? GFS was almost an all-time record for us. I am assuming Memphis, TN? Perhaps not quite as cold but 850's are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sounds like a good hit for WKY. Whoever has precip totals for the EURO, please make sure PAH is in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We should rename this thread and add arctic outbreak to it too. Ridic cold. Another word with filter potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Right--a clipper train type pattern. I thought you were talking about monster winter storms. lol no not monster winter storms but at least the pv isn't hovering over us laughing at us knowing nothing can phase. We will be clipper bound with a chance of a strong S/W crashing in on the west coast that could dig and give us a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sounds like a good hit for WKY. Whoever has precip totals for the EURO, please make sure PAH is in there. .71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lol no not monster winter storms but at least the pv isn't hovering over us laughing at us knowing nothing can phase. We will be clipper bound with a chance of a strong S/W crashing in on the west coast that could dig and give us a decent storm. The classic ND clipper train. I love it when it gets so active you lose track of which clipper is which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 .71 That sounds good. This is a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 what did the euro have for KSTL>? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like a nice hit for LAF on the Euro. Might be a pretty fat DGZ too in this scenario but too early to think about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I am assuming Memphis, TN? Perhaps not quite as cold but 850's are similar. Yes. I was just following your thread for the Euro after seeing the earlier runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 STL gets .75-1.00 QPF through 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 STL gets .75-1.00 QPF through 192 hours. gotta hope it doesn't go to far north for us. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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