Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still looks like a potent, compact little system on Monday. Check out that rapid deepening after 72 on the GFS. Only problem is the lack of gulf connection. Might be the situation where strong dynamics compensate for the lessened moisture flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, as hard as it is to believe, there may be even more potential with this event. Some of these GFS/Euro jet and surface depictions are almost mind boggling. I'd love to get baro's thoughts on this. You and me both Well I agree with you guys--the overall ceiling is pretty high--and per 18Z GFS it would go down in the annals of meteorology as the prototype for a perfect phase with the northern stream vortex. I don't think I have ever seen any storm that compacted the 480/510/540 1000-500 hpa thicknesses like that beast. The analogs to superstorm 1993 are valid since that was also a perfect phase, had extreme polar air to work with, and featured some out of this world jet coupling aloft. That said--the agreement amongst both the GFS/Euro ensembles is particularly amazing. The GFS spaghetti plot at 180 is tight--very rare. That said--we all know how models can seemingly agree up to a week out--but I also temper that knowing models are only "observing" a tiny portion of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lets get this big one back into the MW...we need to catch up with how any EC storms they have had this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Might be the situation where strong dynamics compensate for the lessened moisture flow. Yeah, definitely. Rapid height falls/deepening combined with some f-gen forcing along the arctic front makes me think a swath of 3-5/4-6 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z GFS=Coastal... Right where we wanna be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Could tell pretty early on that the GFS was going to be a miss with the late week potential. But it would only take some small adjustments to make it a lot more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I really like where I sit with the midweek storm right. GFS at 156 just off the shore of Virginia right now. I have a feeling this one will be shifting westward sometime this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sub 950 at 177. My god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The EC snow weenies are prolly having a field day with this. I should go over there and see what kind of heck is breaking loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z GFS=Coastal... Right where we wanna be.... amen... i'm quite tempted to pop over in the MA thread and congratulate them for a 156hr gfs bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The EC snow weenies are prolly having a field day with this. I should go over there and see what kind of heck is breaking loose. egg 'em on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Could tell pretty early on that the GFS was going to be a miss with the late week potential. But it would only take some small adjustments to make it a lot more interesting. interestingly earlier in the run it looked worse than the 18z but man that PV totally yanked it back....can totally see the explosiveness of the pattern slowly ticking east Buckeye should be playing close attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 interestingly earlier in the run it looked worse than the 18z but man that PV totally yanked it back....can totally see the explosiveness of the pattern slowly ticking east Buckeye should be playing close attention anyone from the apps to chicago should be.... im calling it off for i-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 amen... i'm quite tempted to pop over in the MA thread and congratulate them for a 156hr gfs bullseye No bullseye yet... Come Sunday night Monday I'll be cool with it especially if the doctor shows it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 No bullseye yet... Come Sunday night Monday I'll be cool with it especially if the doctor shows it.. whatever comes out of the dr.'s mouth inside 120 is what I'm running with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 whatever comes out of the dr.'s mouth inside 120 is what I'm running with. Good choice. Why even have the GFS, UKIE, GEM, JMA etc. Just stop running every model besides the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Think it would be best if we created a separate thread for the Sunday-Monday potential. I could see things getting a bit cluttered here, especially if one or both of these events starts to heat up. Anybody want to do the honors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Think it would be best if we created a separate thread for the Sunday-Monday potential. I could see things getting a bit cluttered here, especially if one or both of these events starts to heat up.Anybody want to do the honors? I'll do the honors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Think it would be best if we created a separate thread for the Sunday-Monday potential. I could see things getting a bit cluttered here, especially if one or both of these events starts to heat up. Anybody want to do the honors? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12512-feb-6-7th-mwlakesov-snow-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'll do the honors. Joe beat you to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I was gonna call it the Superbowl Special. Damnit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Kokomo is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I was gonna call it the Superbowl Special. Damnit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z GGEM 500 mb pattern at 108 hours looks a bit different than the GFS...should be less suppressive but to what extent remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Whhhaaaatt are we doing this again? Made it home safe and sound. Thanks for all the help while away - hold to view all the data when you are out in the elements or away from your element. Looking forward to tracking this event - some of the extreme cold numbers being spit out are amazing. Beau, awesome job on your forecast calls. Perry County, Missouri was bisected by the ice/rain line. At my house, 1/4 inch of ice. Just 5 miles south of me on Interstate 55, NOTHING. Just rain. Amazing. And that call was about 2 days out, with us being on the cusp. Looking forward to following your work more closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z GGEM 500 mb pattern at 108 hours looks a bit different than the GFS...should be less suppressive but to what extent remains to be seen. Yeah, tombo said he thinks it would cut to Ohio or E. Indiana as well. Should know in 20-30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, tombo said he thinks it would cut to Ohio or E. Indiana as well. Should know in 20-30 mins. ends up on the coast but the 144 hr map suggests a nice event into the OV...probably farther north than the GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ends up on the coast but the 144 hr map suggests a nice event into the OV...probably farther north than the GFS has it. Decent despite that for OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Decent despite that for OV I'm guessing the 156 hour position is somewhere inland. I wonder if prinsburg can do a 156 hour map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Combining the last 2 and half weeks and the progged next 14 days. This might be the most brutal stretch of ice, cold, and snow in the stl area since 1991. This is pretty brutal for us with the warm last 20 years here. the models tonight have snow here tomorrow night, sunday night monday, wednesday... crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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