natecast Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How much is airfare to Nova Scotia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wouldn't it have been cool to have something like '78 happen in a time where we had this website and all access to these models. Imagine some of the crazy solutions some of these models would have been throwing out. Thread titles like "JMA has a 933 over Pitt!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So that's what, Cat 4/5 winds just 5000 feet off the surface? Good night. Low end Cat 4, mind you those were all off shore, and the odds of 120kt 850mb winds verifying is about probably a million to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anyone check analogs for 1993/1978/1950? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If Chicago gets another direct hit from a blizzard 10 days after they had one, I am done with tracking winter storms for good. Why bother coming back? that might be the straw that breaks dilly's back....i don't think i could talk him down from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 wouldn't it have been cool to have something like '78 happen in a time where we had this website and all access to these models. Imagine some of the crazy solutions some of these models would have been throwing out. Thread titles like "JMA has a 933 over Pitt!!!!" And then you would have the NAM with its overcooked convective blobs releasing too much unrealistic latent heat into the upper atmosphere with a 1000 hpa low over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 For the sake of us actually having a storm to track, I think we all need to tone it down on these once in a century-esque storm mentions. About 20 people (exaggeration, but still too many) have mentioned 1950, 1978 and 1993. I know it's all in good fun, but it seriously needs to stop. Everytime someone brings up the 1993/1978/1950 analog they end up jynxing the storm and it never ends up happening or its very weak. We certainly wouldn't want another Roger Smith (again, no disrespect to him) Peak Energy Bomb fiasco. I agree with the analog talk, lets get this inside of 5 days before we should even bust out the analogs, the key here is that there is a potential for a seasonally strong system that could track in our favor for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So that's what, Cat 4/5 winds just 5000 feet off the surface? Good night. It would be way lower than 5000 feet with those heights--prolly more like sub-4000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Stebo.. that is classic "Southeast Michigan = The Land of the Dying MCSs" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Stebo.. that is classic "Southeast Michigan = The Land of the Dying MCSs" It is what it is dude Although this summer I have high expectations that i feel will be fulfilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It is what it is dude Although this summer I have high expectations that i feel will be fulfilled. So instead of a dying MCSs, you get no MCS at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So instead of a dying MCSs, you get no MCS at all? Uhh that would probably mean you don't either as most of our MCSs come from the West... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Stebo.. that is classic "Southeast Michigan = The Land of the Dying MCSs" Last summer pretty much confirmed that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't care about severe weather much tbh. I rather it be 80 and sunny any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Until browing this thread, I never realized this was a threat for a BIG storm. If we get a significant snowstorm, the snow depth and snowbanks around here are going to be something Ive never seen before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here are the NAO charts..Basic, but they do the job. Major change or shift / drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Unreal. (most likely is.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree with the analog talk, lets get this inside of 5 days before we should even bust out the analogs, the key here is that there is a potential for a seasonally strong system that could track in our favor for the region. This is a very sensible post of what we can take from this at this time. Being a non met I probably wouldn't understand an explanation of why some models are so extreme with this system at this time but am curious nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is a very sensible post of what we can take from this at this time. Being a non met I probably wouldn't understand an explanation of why some models are so extreme with this system at this time but am curious nonetheless. take a look at baro's jetstream map he posted a couple pages or so back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 take a look at baro's jetstream map he posted a couple pages or so back Yeah, the amount of Upper Level energy forecasted to crash ashore early next week has me more than interested in this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Until browing this thread, I never realized this was a threat for a BIG storm. If we get a significant snowstorm, the snow depth and snowbanks around here are going to be something Ive never seen before! Agree. Deep snow pack. Have not seen it this deep in 2 years. Reminds me allot of 2009. Its good for the Lakes and insulates the ground against this cold. Helps in many ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Agree. Deep snow pack. Have not seen it this deep in 2 years. Reminds me allot of 2009. Its good for the Lakes and insulates the ground against this cold. Helps in many ways. The difference is, this was the cutoff point in 2009 before the Feb thaw. As it was in Dec 2000 before the Jan thaw. This snowpack looks to only get deeper. Jan 1999 or bust? Better than Jan 1999? Im salivating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, the amount of Upper Level energy forecasted to crash ashore early next week has me more than interested in this potential. i like your leveheaded approach though still fun to look at the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes it is great fun to look at these maps but we all know they are extreme at the present even if there is a great deal of upper level energy forecast to come onshore. The key as always is how many successive runs will show the extreme solution. If they do, then Katie bar the door! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i like your leveheaded approach though still fun to look at the maps Of course, I would be lying if I didn't say this one has a higher ceiling than the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Of course, I would be lying if I didn't say this one has a higher ceiling than the last storm. Yeah, as hard as it is to believe, there may be even more potential with this event. Some of these GFS/Euro jet and surface depictions are almost mind boggling. I'd love to get baro's thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, as hard as it is to believe, there may be even more potential with this event. Some of these GFS/Euro jet and surface depictions are almost mind boggling. I'd love to get baro's thoughts on this. You and me both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still looks like a potent, compact little system on Monday. Check out that rapid deepening after 72 on the GFS. Only problem is the lack of gulf connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Still looks like a potent, compact little system on Monday. Check out that rapid deepening after 72 on the GFS. Only problem is the lack of gulf connection. Yeah, been watching it. Looks like an accumulating snow is in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, the 300 mb jet looks phenomenal in this time frame for next week on the 18z and will probably continue with tonight's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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