AirNelson39 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Trends trends trends. Gotta believe in a couple days the midwest will be looking at another winter storm while most in the se are stuck with rain. Good thing somw of us need the liquid content any way we can get it. ++++1 couldn't agree more. If this is anything like the rest of the winter we should be buying boats just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol not quite what I was expecting...figured it would be a lot more bonkers with totals. On second look, the total precip for the storm has almost the entire state getting over an inch of qpf. I tend to agree that the snow totals would show over a foot for someone. Anyway, the GFS op is just one depiction out of many that are on the table. I like the trends and tend to agree with Alan that the track SHOULD not cut NW based on the setup and timing with the arctic front (as long as it's being modeled correctly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The thing I like about this potential is the lack of any other shortwaves (so far) showing up to mess with the strong primary one. We need to keep it clear all around it, and just have a digging primary with nothing around it to affect its track. It would just keep digging and follow the flow of the longwave axis in the Miss. Valley to east Coast, which should allow it to affect the Southeast. At this point its too early to have confidence that the track won't be further north yet though. Nice to look at it though, and its not stingy on the precip or cold air, although I'd prefer a little further south track. On to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 RDU is on the line. Looks like this run would be a wind producer as well. Check out isobars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ensemble mean is further south. Still turns up the coast though eventually ^^This is more important than the OP run to me. Now we just need the Euro ensembles on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 ^^This is more important than the OP run to me. Now we just need the Euro ensembles on board. It seems to me that in the long range the ensembles are oftentimes the best bet, then the operational models are superior once you get closer. Great track for almost everyone on the board on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 ++++1 couldn't agree more. If this is anything like the rest of the winter we should be buying boats just in case Yeah, this winter has only been the best one in ages for many. We have all been using boats to travel on all the snow and ice These types of posts from you have reached the point of being absurd since this winter has been great for many and given your history you should know you are on thin ice. Knock it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 ++++1 couldn't agree more. If this is anything like the rest of the winter we should be buying boats just in case Huh? It's barely even rained here this winter. We're way below average and even juicy systems like the other day only gave us .2" of QPF. Tomorrow's system should be a good rain producer, however, though I'm even wondering about that as the NAM has us teetering on the brink of sub-0.5" of QPF with a very sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 CMC looks similar to UKMet and GFS. Blocking in SE Canada looks to be our biggest concern at this point...as in, whether we will have enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yeah, this winter has only been the best one in ages for many. We have all been using boats to travel on all the snow and ice These types of posts from you have reached the point of being absurd since this winter has been great for many and given your history you should know you are on thin ice. Knock it off. I agree. Been a good winter for me. When I was referring to trends I was just talking about more in line with the last couple weeks. Seems the NW trend is starting to come into play and it dos appear that the midwest winter is now in full force. I hope this one will be suppressed due to the polar vortex being currently forecast in a favorable position for us, I just got a feeling itll weaken up on future model runs and let this thing slide nw in time, i hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 For those of you paying attention to the 850 0c line, there's no real reason to do so...this run is obviously much colder than the 06z gfs so don't get too caught up on the temps. We can worry about temps next week Raleigh is always on the line, nothing new for us...overall setup looks great for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yea major screw up...Phil probably wants to kill me lol. Haha, well honestly looking at the storm where it was about 24 hours before it slams us, it is quite a bit further north than where you would like to see it. This run makes me very uneasy because its already pretty far north an we are still a good 6-7 days out. That gives this plenty of time for a northward trend from the gfs which typically has a cold bias. We only have weak blocking in place over Greenland, and if this system were to ramp up any more than it already is on this run, it would be mainly rain for most of us in the Carolinas. Watch the trends! I'd actually like to see the gfs shift southward before I can get more confident that the blocking is going to hold. The polar vortex is stronger than the blocking, which means its much more likely to dominate the pattern rather than the blocking. Just some food for thought. If the euro is further south and has stronger blocking, I might have to re-evaluate my assessment. With that said, this looks very similar to a January 1987 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 With that said, this looks very similar to a January 1987 redux. It does, we just need everything farther south - the vortex in Canada and the wave in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I looks like New England better be clearing the snow off of their roofs to make room. It could get bad if this one is any close to this fun of the GFS for them. roads are fine up there, they are in constant snow removal mode Late Oct - April. I use to live in NH, first year I moved there from SC for a job (winter 2000) the first storm we had in November was like 13" of snow, being from the south i was expecting to get some time off work, wrong! they pretreated and then plowed all night thru the storm and I went right to work with no issue the next morning. I lived there 3 years and NEVER had a snow day. I had 3 storms in that period that had over 2' per storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 FINALLY got my computer back after some nasty malware! Am I correct that the most recent GFS trended to the north? Wouldn't that be expected, given the lack of established blocking? It seems that until the models see a reason to do anything else, an inland slide seems logical. As such, there's no real reason to cry or rejoice, until the pattern is set up. Right now, it's all about potentials. And it looks like there's tons of potential from somebody in the South with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 FINALLY got my computer back after some nasty malware! Am I correct that the most recent GFS trended to the north? Wouldn't that be expected, given the lack of established blocking? It seems that until the models see a reason to do anything else, an inland slide seems logical. As such, there's no real reason to cry or rejoice, until the pattern is set up. Right now, it's all about potentials. And it looks like there's tons of potential from somebody in the South with this one. This run of the GFS is a great run for many, BUT I dont know if you can determine any trends. After all, this run is completely different than previous runs. What you can take from it is that it has support (other models which look similar at 500). Don't take specifics at this time this far out. I think we have a storm somewhere in the southeast and it's not like we are 10 days out. Should be fun following it. Someone in the southeast/midsouth should get a healthy dose of snow from this, but where is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This is an unbelievable run for those of us here in the foothills of NC. There is no reason to get excited yet. We have plenty of time to track the evolution of this storm. One good thing that I noticed on the models is the abundant cold air that will be available. I believe anyone north of the storm track stands a very good chance of receiving snow from this storm late next week. Just as an interesting side note, the BUFKIT of the GFS 12z shows 14.9 inches of snow in Hickory, NC. Lets wait and see what happens with the model shifts over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Fwiw, 12Z GFS ensemble mean slams ATL-AHN with a major snow from 0.55" qpf 2/9-10 from a classic tracking Miller A. OTOH, 12Z CDN ens. mean implies a too far north track (like 12/Z gfs op) with 850's above 0C and a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Thru hr 126 the 12z EURO is much further west with the shortwave and the PNA ridge is further west....we shall see how that translates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yeah, this winter has only been the best one in ages for many. We have all been using boats to travel on all the snow and ice These types of posts from you have reached the point of being absurd since this winter has been great for many and given your history you should know you are on thin ice. Knock it off. I was saying this will likely turn into a rain event and with the 1" qpf over most the state it would be a big one at that. Sorry I'm pessimistic to what the models show this winter when over 5 days out. Mark my words on a rain event. Yes it's not scientific but based on trends this entire winter that's what I'm going on. And by my comment saying if it's anything like this winter I mean we constantly have winter storms in the 5+ day that never turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro @ Day 5 shows 1036mb HP moving into the heartland. Vortex is in the NE, but s/w is further west. Might run inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Thru hr 126 the 12z EURO is much further west with the shortwave and the PNA ridge is further west....we shall see how that translates... Also not nearly as cold as the 00z run at the same time frame...however it does cool down. Doesn't look bad @144...though if I were to guess it may be closer to the GFS then the it's previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro is much warmer in advance of the low vs. the 0Z run. 850 0 line all the way up to KATL already. So, setting up to be a more moist but warmer system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Day 6 Euro. 1043mb HP moving in from Canada. Vort digging in western Texas. Looks a little like the GFS. Warmer than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Compared to 12z GFS the 12z EURO is further west with the shortwave and has a 1004 mb low in SW TX while the 0z EURO had no low in TX at this time frame (150hr or 18z Wednesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12Z Euro looking to be a big fail for snow for many regions of the SE with too far north track/850's above 0C for these regions. Colder regions may still do ok. Let's see if I'm right. Hopefully not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 All of the models from this morning are showing more E or ENE flow in SE Canada at the moment of truth...whereas from last night's runs, the flow was more ESE (more blocking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks a lot like the GFS @156 PV is weaker and further east then it's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 roads are fine up there, they are in constant snow removal mode Late Oct - April. I use to live in NH, first year I moved there from SC for a job (winter 2000) the first storm we had in November was like 13" of snow, being from the south i was expecting to get some time off work, wrong! they pretreated and then plowed all night thru the storm and I went right to work with no issue the next morning. I lived there 3 years and NEVER had a snow day. I had 3 storms in that period that had over 2' per storm. I know they are good with roads (unless the NY union is plowing). I was talking about the roofs. They have had a lot of roof collapses of late up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 @168 our temps skyrocket.....not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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