rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 He has a point, gfs suggests a changeover to rain or freezing rain for central/eastern nc. Folks should not worry so much about those types of precise details though. The main thing to worry about is if it trends north. Hopefully the eastern canadian low will be a bit more south than this run shows to prevent it. I agree...we have a long ways to go w/ this one and a lot of model runs to go through. I'm just excited that we have a storm to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like ATL-AHN will change from rain to snow... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_168l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Gfs has lows near or below zero on day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 He has a point, gfs suggests a changeover to rain or freezing rain for central/eastern nc. Folks should not worry so much about those types of precise details though. The main thing to worry about is if it trends north. Hopefully the eastern canadian low will be a bit more south than this run shows to prevent it. What I put in bold is the biggest fear right now. However we can probably bet the Euro holds suite with it's more southern solution. I have a hard time believing the GFS verifies just cause it looks too good to be true. I guess half of NC wins half doesn't...which doesn't mean a nightmare for the Carolinas...I guess that's what I was wondering about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The system is still a long ways out. Not to be a debbie downer, but it's only one of many model runs that will lead up to this possible storm. Remember, a couple of weeks ago, when the Euro produced a 1993 type storm days in advance and all we got was rain? Don't get too excited about this one because it might all change to rain like the last system did, if it slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I can't post my soundings as I'm mobile and apparently can't cut and paste from Plymouth but suffice to say the soundings arent even close to being anything but all snow from Charlotte west at the very least. That would easily be close to 2 feet...can't wait to see the snow maps for the porn value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That would easily be close to 2 feet...can't wait to see the snow maps for the porn value. Here's one for you: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like ATL-AHN will change from rain to snow... http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_162l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_168l.gif With a track over Macon it is hard to believe it wouldn't be rain, unless there is some deep cold in ahead. Want that low in Fla. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Here's one for you: I guess I could live with that map. 11" would probably suffice. If only it would verify for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ahhhh, divisiveness creeping in already. Still a great, great run compared to 00z. Epic run for quite a lot of people; semi-epic for the Triangle. Chill out everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Here's one for you: lol not quite what I was expecting...figured it would be a lot more bonkers with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 WTF are you talking about? Sorry, for the eastern 1/2 of NC. I know, it's frustrating when people make general comments and don't take into account everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Sorry, for the eastern 1/2 of NC. I know, it's frustrating when people make general comments and don't take into account everyone else. No problem just wondering since on our side it would be the run of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ahhhh, divisiveness creeping in already. Still a great, great run compared to 00z. Epic run for quite a lot of people; semi-epic for the Triangle. Chill out everyone! I think folks are just tired of not seeing anything since Christmas around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think I'm just tired of not seeing anything since Christmas in my backyard. Oh, you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Oh, you. Why did you change my quote? Were you happy with January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yep but that's irrelevant at this point. No way am I going to worry about a 50 mile range at day 6/7. The potential is huge is the main point. Lookout, I was directly responding to the poster who said "12z verbatim is an 85 special.... ATL to CLT north gets slammed" and I was basically saying ATL does NOT get slammed verbatim (except with a cold rain). My snow accumulation maps have very little accum., if any, for ATL-AHN. I didn't want that to remain in the archives here without a correction. As you know, other than in very rare situations, ATL-AHN will not get slammed by snow on the frontend with a sfc low that tracks over MCN as that is quite a bit too far north. For a good snowstorm (like the last two), I know that you know that a classic true Miller A track across the northern GOM and then over SE GA or further south is the best bet for big ATL-AHN snows. OTOH, I agree that there is huge potential for a sig. snowstorm for a portion of the SE US and have been feeling that way for a couple of days with the three straight Euro snowstorm runs. This run and the 6Z gfs run just add to the idea that there's a decent chance at one for a portion of the SE US around 2/9-10. Of course, it is way too early to get too excited as it can still turn out to be nada. Then again, climo is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I looks like New England better be clearing the snow off of their roofs to make room. It could get bad if this one is any close to this fun of the GFS for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Activate Pacific Fire Hose at 240. Engage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Activate Pacific Fire Hose at 240. Engage! Now that will likely verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Why did you change my quote? Were you happy with January? I just think that it's unreasonable to become cynical when every fantasy storm doesn't pan out. Look, I didn't see as much as you on Christmas. Due to how much I love the weather, though, I've actually had a lot of fun tracking the recent Yankee blizzards. Would I love to see more snow? Absolutely. Just not sure people should be griping about marginal temps in RDU on a GFS run a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Lookout, I was directly responding to the poster who said "12z verbatim is an 85 special.... ATL to CLT north gets slammed" and I was basically saying ATL does NOT get slammed verbatim (except with a cold rain). My snow accumulation maps have very little accum., if any, for ATL-AHN. I didn't want that to remain in the archives here without a correction. As you know, other than in very rare situations, ATL-AHN will not get slammed by snow on the frontend with a sfc low that tracks over MCN as that is quite a bit too far north. For a good snowstorm (like the last two), I know that you know that a classic true Miller A track across the northern GOM and then over SE GA or further south is the best bet for big ATL-AHN snows. OTOH, I agree that there is huge potential for a sig. snowstorm for a portion of the SE US and have been feeling that way for a couple of days with the three straight Euro snowstorm runs. This run and the 6Z gfs run just add to the idea that there's a decent chance at one for a portion of the SE US around 2/9-10. Of course, it is way too early to get too excited as it can still turn out to be nada. Then again, climo is on our side. Larry, I've been thinking about this and you are right about needing a further south track for a good storm. However, in order to get an epic dumping (1993) wouldn't we need a monster storm coming further north than the ideal track? That would put us closer to the heavy precip and the power of the storm would pull in the colder air. I know it's threading the needle. Before anyone jumps on me for saying the 1993 word I am in no way comparing this storm to that one. I'm just discussing storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z GFS bufkit shows about a foot of snow from NE Birmingham up to Rome. GFS is absolutely brutal with cold following this system too. I don't like being in the bullseye 7 days away though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Trends trends trends. Gotta believe in a couple days the midwest will be looking at another winter storm while most in the se are stuck with rain. Good thing somw of us need the liquid content any way we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Good run-to-run consistency with the GFS, I see. No reason to get excited about the what the GFS is advertising this run, folks, because it can and will change! Just be excited about the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It is good that the GFS now looks similar in general to the GGEm and ECMWF in showing a storm. Synoptically, most models have a strong vortex in eastern Canada next week, which argues for a supressed track that would say take the system across the Gulf coast to N Fl or S GA and then off shore and northeast out to sea. I personally think the GFS is likely too amplified and thus too far north/west but with the system 6-7 days out wobbles north and south in the track will happen and should not suprise us. If the models are wrong and the eastern Canada PV is weaker, further north or west, then the further north/west track could certainly happen even further north and west. However as of now, putting my snow weenie goggles on, I like how this looks for RDU 6-7 days out. Of course it is 6-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 UKMet at 144...it looks like this would end up north of the GFS. We MUST have the polar vortex in Canada strong and displaced to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Lookout, I was directly responding to the poster who said "12z verbatim is an 85 special.... ATL to CLT north gets slammed" and I was basically saying ATL does NOT get slammed verbatim (except with a cold rain). My snow accumulation maps have very little accum., if any, for ATL-AHN. I didn't want that to remain in the archives here without a correction. As you know, other than in very rare situations, ATL-AHN will not get slammed by snow on the frontend with a sfc low that tracks over MCN as that is quite a bit too far north. For a good snowstorm (like the last two), I know that you know that a classic true Miller A track across the northern GOM and then over SE GA or further south is the best bet for big ATL-AHN snows. OTOH, I agree that there is huge potential for a sig. snowstorm for a portion of the SE US and have been feeling that way for a couple of days with the three straight Euro snowstorm runs. This run and the 6Z gfs run just add to the idea that there's a decent chance at one for a portion of the SE US around 2/9-10. Of course, it is way too early to get too excited as it can still turn out to be nada. Then again, climo is on our side. I know what you mean, it wasn't meant as a rebuttal..was just making a general comment I agree with everything you say here, literally it's not although it's very very close..verbatim gainesville is all snow. Although such a track is not favorable for north ga snow most of the time, the very cold airmass ahead of it combined with even colder air north and west of it suggests a rare instance where the cold is actually just a few miles behind the main low..similar to what you see in the plains. What I like seeing though is all models showing a storm..that is what is important. My biggest fear though is this trends more north. New 12z canadian looks similar to the gfs at hour 144. But it's hard to tell with those crummy maps. One noticable difference, it has a 1039mb high over the ohio valley vs a 1030ish on the gfs. Not surprising given the ggem's tendency to overdo highs but if that high trends stronger, colder low levels are a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Larry, I've been thinking about this and you are right about needing a further south track for a good storm. However, in order to get an epic dumping (1993) wouldn't we need a monster storm coming further north than the ideal track? That would put us closer to the heavy precip and the power of the storm would pull in the colder air. I know it's threading the needle. Before anyone jumps on me for saying the 1993 word I am in no way comparing this storm to that one. I'm just discussing storm tracks. No, not at all. ATL (the city itself) got epic dumps of 7-10" of snow from storms in 12/1886, 1/1893, 12/1896, 1/1904, 1/1936, 1/1940, and 3/1983 and epic dumps of 3-4" of IP (keep in mind that 3-4" of IP is equivalent to ~9-12" of snow) from storms in 1/1884, 12/1917, 2/1979 and 1/1988. ALL of these were from Miller A storm tracks quite a bit further south than the 12Z gfs (all crossed either SE GA or north or central FL) and gave ATL-AHN in the very general vicinity of 1" of liquid equivalent. 3/1993 was much more the exception. Since the late 1800's, I can't find even one epic dump in the city, itself, that didn't have an associated track across either SE GA or N/C FL unless you want to count 3/1993 (which may not quite count as epic dump for city, itself..it is close..and it definitely didn't count as epic for KATL)..even if it did count, the track was still ~100 miles SE of the 12z gfs' MCN track. So, that's 11 epic dumps (about once every 12 years) and 11 similar Miller A tracks excluding 1993. Maps from here: http://docs.lib.noaa...ather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ensemble mean is further south. Still turns up the coast though eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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