Cheeznado Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Euro ensembles are less than impressed with the Op storm- no real hint of a Gulf low and not as sharp with the trough. Just reporting what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like it is sagging south of me back in Ala. but Candyman in Columbus is about to get a nice surprise if they are cold enough. I have some flakes mixing in with the heavier batches. I'm at 32 even. T I was expecting something like this to be in my viewing area this time yesterday morning. Unfortunately, it is just to the north of where I live, so I was not able to experience it on the way to work this morning. Just gearing up for a lot of rain and some cold weather again next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 6z gfs looks a lot better than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yep 6z GFS is much closer to the Euro...doesn't get nearly as amped up after turning the corner but still way better then the 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yep 6z GFS is much closer to the Euro...doesn't get nearly as amped up after turning the corner but still way better then the 00z last night. Its our typical gfs at this range. Too far southeast and too strung out with are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 no excitement here as we have been down this road too many times this year. A storm pops up on models only to go away or go north. I am hope it does verify but need to wait several more days before we jump up and down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 For those of you smarter than me...which is pretty much most of you...is there any truth to the old saying about having a thunderstorm in the winter followed by snow a few days later? Just curious, had four or five decent rumbles last night. I'll try to look that up, I have a weather folklore book at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 My morning thoughts http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/rain-tomorrow-with-a-mild-weekend-followed-by-cold-weather-and-possible-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 My morning thoughts http://www.examiner....d-possible-snow Great write up Allan. I would have titled this "Get on board the SE Wx Roller Coaster" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 My morning thoughts http://www.examiner....d-possible-snow Thanks, great read as always...so if the 12z suite comes in with a storm will you be staying up tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 no excitement here as we have been down this road too many times this year. A storm pops up on models only to go away or go north. I am hope it does verify but need to wait several more days before we jump up and down I'm still thinking a Miller C is the most likely possibility. Now you "C" it, now you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 My morning thoughts http://www.examiner....d-possible-snow Two out of three ain't bad. Now if we can just get the GFS on board and for them all stay the same for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 while we await the 12Z guidance here is an interesting tidbit from the updated preliminary discussion from HPC this morning: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 859 AM EST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 12Z MON FEB 07 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 10 2011 UPDATED PRELIM PROGS INCORPORATED A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST ECMWF MEAN INTO THE MIX THAN THE EARLY PRELIMS. ONE REASON FAVORING A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF MEAN IS THAT IT SOMEWHAT WEAKENS NRN STREAM ENERGY VCTNY OF THE LAKES/NEW ENG DAYS 4-5...WHILE PLAYING UP AT 500MB THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TROFFING OVER THE W CENTRAL CONUS THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION COMMENTED ON GUIDANCE BEING QUITE DIVERSE MON/TUE WITH POTENTIAL LOW PRES AFFECTING THE E. SIMILAR HIGH SPREAD EXISTS WITH THE FOLLOWING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS OR GULF COAST REGION NEXT THU. IN HINDSIGHT...I THINK THAT THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NERN GULF/FL PANHANDLE THAN DEPICTED ON THE DAY 7 UPDATED SURFACE GRAPHIC. well, we'll see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Another view of the UKMet. This compares favorably to the Euro at hr144 with strong polar vortex in N Hudson Bay, ridging off the west coast extending into E Alaska, and wave diving into the SW...sfc high in central U.S. and a lot of cold air east of the Rockies...all very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Thanks, great read as always...so if the 12z suite comes in with a storm will you be staying up tonight? Ha we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 "the 6z GFS now shows the storm in the similar time frame but it is suppressed well to the south..." Quote from Allans Blog This is the statement we have been waiting for since our last storm! If it follows suit with almost every storm, hopefully it will track north right in to CLT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like on the 500mb charts our energy is taking a more SW approach compared to the 6z....we may end up closer to the Euro but who knows. Out to 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ughhh...GFS looks well inland..might take an OV track Or maybe not @156 still gives the Carolinas hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 at 500mb, the gfs looks awfully similar to prior runs of the euro with the shortwave entering the pacific northwest. This one might be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The 12z is dreamy for CLT and west in NC...looks like 2 feet of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 N. Ga is getting destroyed at hr 162...also SW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 at 500mb, the gfs looks awfully similar to prior runs of the euro with the shortwave entering the pacific northwest. This one might be good. 12z verbatim is an 85 special.... ATL to CLT north gets slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 N. Ga is getting destroyed at hr 162...also SW NC. Snow maps are going to look like a DGEX fantasy. What a run...too bad it probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 SV is quick with the maps man. WW is still at 156... on yeah, HELL yeah on the post!! 12z verbatim is an 85 special.... ATL to CLT north gets slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ughhh...GFS looks well inland..might take an OV track Or maybe not @156 still gives the Carolinas hope. Dang Burger...how many poor weenies have you caused to jump off the cliff with the PBP?? LMAO...Just messin with ya! Have a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Damn that low ramps up at 168 in NE NC... Snow maps are going to look like a DGEX fantasy. What a run...too bad it probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z gfs throwing out a bomb...Fantastic run for N. Ga., NW SC, and Western half of NC. This takes a slightly inland track so RDU looks to be a heavy rain event on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Chris, "the lookout", is getting a little bit excited lol I know it's a long ways out still but it's hard not to with model support from the others to some degree or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Actually verbatim it might be ZR...but I'm sure the GFS isn't catching on to how cold it would probably given that much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z verbatim is an 85 special.... ATL to CLT north gets slammed. For ATL-AHN, this track is too far north and they get mainly a cold rain. This is a dream storm for BHM to Chat. to ASH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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