EmersonGA Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Seeing how much these past modeled cold outbreaks have modified makes me feel very good about suppression. Ill take my chances with cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Seeing how much these past modeled cold outbreaks have modified makes me feel very good about suppression. Ill take my chances with cold air in place. Yeah, this energy coming in was once modeled as a washed out, suppressed, mostly nothing, and now I'm looking at over an inch at 34. Lots of winters that'd be about as close as I could hope to be a day, or so out. Get that close, maybe get a surprise. I just like that Doc and Goofy are both seeing some good cold air over us. Chances. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 its time to put the GFS to bed for a while... if the Euro still shows the storm tonight, the GFS can be ignored until the 7th, lets be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Folks, Should the 0Z gfs verify closely, it will be VERY impressive as far as very cold 850 duration. It has KATL -8C or colder at 850 for 81 straight hours. From best as I can tell, this would be barely longer than the longest such period on record since 1950, which is currently ~79 hours: 1/16/1977 to 1/19/1977 (79 hours): coldest 850 -17C; KATL: coldest low 1 F; coldest high 22 F 2/16/1958 to 2/19/1958 (79 hours): coldest 850 -15.5C; KATL coldest low 5 F; coldest high 22 F To compare, the forecasted one has it -8C or colder at 850 mb from 3Z on 2/8 through 12Z on 2/11 with the coldest of -16C at 850 mb. Of course, the gfs is likely overdoing this duration, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Folks, I just looked at the 0Z 2/3 gfs ensemble mean **fwiw**. This model run implies that the most crucial period to watch for the potential for SE US wintry precip. would be from late on 2/9 (entering western regions) through early on 2/10 (exiting eastern regions). Why do I say this? Because this model has 850's below 0C and ~0.20-.25" of qpf during that period for many in the SE US. Folks, that is a rather sig. amount of qpf showing up on an ensemble mean about a week out in time. I don't consider this a high risk at this time and it is still a good ways out in time. However, in deference to the Euro since it has shown a major snow for parts of the SE US in/near this timeframe over the past two runs and in deference to longterm climo which shows that the most favorable period for major KATL/KCHS/KSAV snow starts at around this time, it admittedly has my attention. Has anyone looked at the individual ens. members yet? Keep hope alive by thinking moist WSW 500 mb flow over a cold, dry high near the surface! Think positively! Think Miller A. **EDIT**: I just saw the 0Z GGEM and see that it actually has a nearly perfectly placed Miller A likely producing snow for a good portion of the SE US from late on 2/10 to early on 2/11 **fwiw**. So, this is about a day later but is close enough to get my attention. All aboard for the 0Z Doc's Magical Mystery Tour. All aboard! Train is now leaving the station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 UKMet at hr144. Cold high in Iowa with positively tilted trough diving into the SW...not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 UKMet at hr144. Cold high in Iowa with positively tilted trough diving into the SW...not too bad. 1) Nice looking Ukie at 144. I would imagine 500 mb flow turns WSW soon after thus bringing moisture over that cold high. 2) 0Z Doc is off and is out to 114 hours. Looks OK so far. Crucial time will be hours 156-186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0Z doc hour 150 drier vs. 162 12Z. 500 mb flow is westerly vs. WSW on 12Z run. Not looking good, folks, but will watch a few more panels.....hopefully, delayed but not denied but not betting on that as of yet. Edit: 156 hour map more WSW at 500 mb with moisture about ready to return...but later than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Folks, All aboard for the 0Z Doc's Magical Mystery Tour. All aboard! Train is now leaving the station. The Euro is one cold arctic express. The coldest in years I think for Tenn, Al, Ms, Ga and western NC at 138 with -16 ! It also has the Monday front as a weak moisture event , probably flurrries or sprinkles. At 156 it has an extremely strong eastern Can low, and the strong digging s/w in West Texas. Extreme cold in the central and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Snowing DFW at 162. This run a little delayed but let's see what happens from here. Snowing N LA at 168. Nice weak Miller A forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The biggest thing right now that I see is the potential ... and with the polar vortex close to an ideal location over Hudson Bay usually is one of the favored locales for a winter storm in the SE, especially more than not, in La Nina years, ironically. And I do see "potential" Holy monkeyballs, a 925 mb low SW of Greenland DAY Day 7 on 00z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 174: snow starts BHM with nicely placed Miller A. This makes three runs in a row with major SE snowstorm fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Guess no ones up, but theres theone of the, if not the strongest low I've ever seen in eastern Canada at sub 940mb. Tremendous flow around it, and snow all over Texas at 162 hours. The shortwave is sharp and neutral tilt in Texas. Snow spreads across most of Lousiana after 168 hours. By 180, the trough is still sharp and a heck of a snowstorm is raging over the Southeast states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The biggest thing right now that I see is the potential ... and with the polar vortex close to an ideal location over Hudson Bay usually is one of the favored locales for a winter storm in the SE, especially more than not, in La Nina years, ironically. And I do see "potential" How does having a polar vortex over Hudson Bay compare with having a 50/50 low? Are these 2 completely separate mechanisms for providing cold air and blocking? I would think that if you had a 50/50 low, you would potentially have ridging near Hudson Bay and you would not have a polar vortex there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Guess no ones up, but theres theone of the, if not the strongest low I've ever seen in eastern Canada at sub 940mb. Tremendous flow around it, and snow all over Texas at 162 hours. The shortwave is sharp and neutral tilt in Texas. Snow spreads across most of Lousiana after 168 hours. By 180, the trough is still sharp and a heck of a snowstorm is raging over the Southeast states. I just edited my post on Page 7 - 925 MB SFC LOW SW of Greenland on DAY 7 - SHEESH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Taken literally it is "only" .3 liquid in north GA- but of course that is not important- what is important is that we now have two runs in a row....hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 the vortex is so strong in Canada it keeps the storm from running up the coast, it heads of NC coast after clobbering the central and eastern Carolinas. Amazing if this is anywhere near close snow from about Houston to Savannah and several hundred miles north. I don't recall a super cold snowstorm of this magnitude across the South. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This run gives lots of the midsouth major snowfall. ATL-AHN get ~4"! If this occurs at KATL, we're talking 2nd major snow in one season for first time there since 1895 and a whopping FOUR since 3//2009! Also, keep in mind what climo says about this highly active period. Nighty nght, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 How does having a polar vortex over Hudson Bay compare with having a 50/50 low? Are these 2 completely separate mechanisms for providing cold air and blocking? I would think that if you had a 50/50 low, you would potentially have ridging near Hudson Bay and you would not have a polar vortex there. With this potential pattern a vortex over Hudson Bay in Canada allows an attendant s/w to dig and not turn the corner too soon. Even in situations without a -NAO signal, many snow events in the SE have come about in this setup without a -NAO and the low pressure systems are allowed to come up off the coast as the system is channeled between the Hudson Bay Vortex and a sprawling ATL ridge which blocks the low going straight out to sea. In this case, there's just such that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I just edited my post on Page 7 - 925 MB SFC LOW SW of Greenland on DAY 7 - SHEESH! I didn't realize its that low. The Euro has done this twice this season (overdone the eastern Can. low)....so we'll see. But the cold is only 4.5 days away so its probably close to legit. Hard to believe this could be the Southeasts' year....with cold well ahead of and very in place for 2 storms already, and now a possible 3rd. We almost never get to see a snow coming from this distance and this time the cold ahead of it is absolutely amazing. Could easily be supressed at this point, but fascinating to see the Euro hold on to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Guess no ones up, but theres theone of the, if not the strongest low I've ever seen in eastern Canada at sub 940mb. Tremendous flow around it, and snow all over Texas at 162 hours. The shortwave is sharp and neutral tilt in Texas. Snow spreads across most of Lousiana after 168 hours. By 180, the trough is still sharp and a heck of a snowstorm is raging over the Southeast states. Yea, looks like the Euro is threading the needle just right! The one thing I'm still worried about is the fact that this is not the traditional -NAO setup where blocking will prevent the storm from coming further inland. Still though, there might be just enough blocking at 168 hours on the ECWMF that allows the massive PV to be far enough south to allow the southern low track the euro shows beyond this period. We really need that massive low just south of greenland to stay put. Otherwise, the PV will shift northward and so will our current miller A track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 the vortex is so strong in Canada it keeps the storm from running up the coast, it heads of NC coast after clobbering the central and eastern Carolinas. Amazing if this is anywhere near close snow from about Houston to Savannah and several hundred miles north. I don't recall a super cold snowstorm of this magnitude across the South. Ever. a 476dm polar vortex over Hudson Bay will tend to cause such digging coupled with healthy PNA ridging. The ATL ridge is quite strong and pretty stout which the low will have to follow the least path of resistance in this case, and up and over that ATL ridge she should go. I can't see any individual maps after day 7 of course since I don't have SV maps, but the overall pattern looks very promising IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 im still worried this thing turns into an inland runner... id rather see it a bit more suppressed at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I didn't realize its that low. The Euro has done this twice this season (overdone the eastern Can. low)....so we'll see. But the cold is only 4.5 days away so its probably close to legit. Hard to believe this could be the Southeasts' year....with cold well ahead of and very in place for 2 storms already, and now a possible 3rd. We almost never get to see a snow coming from this distance and this time the cold ahead of it is absolutely amazing. Could easily be supressed at this point, but fascinating to see the Euro hold on to this. yeah I think someone needs to save this particular map and see if that attendant low becomes anywhere near that strong which of course could completely change the ballgame at a later time, but I can't recall such a strong ATL extratropical low that strong in quite some time, and I think it was about 7 years ago roughly there was a 931 mb low near that same locale the EURO is depicting on its day 7 prog, but I guess if the PV verifies out at 476DM, it's quite plausible this scenario could pan out. Things seem to teleconnect rather well actually given the number of days out this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Some climo tidbits before bed: KATL major (3.5"+) S/IP with most concentrated period highlighted: DEC: 2, 3-6, 11-13, 29 JAN: 1, 2-3, 7, 7-8, 9, 9-10, 12, 18, 18-19, 22, 23, 26, 28, 29-30 FEB: 10, 11-12, 11-12, 12, 15, 15-16, 17-18, 21, 23, 24-25, 26 MAR: 1, 2, 11, 13, 14, 24 KCHS/KSAV major (2"+) S/IP with most concentrated period highlighted: DEC: 6, 15, 17, 22-24, 27, 30-31 JAN: 9-11, 13, 25-6, 30 FEB: 8, 9-10, 11, 12, 13, 14-15, 15, 21-22, 25, 28 MAR: 3-4, 4, 4 Note that this storm would be on ~2/10 per the last three Euro runs. So, this is very believable from a climo standpoint. By the way, the mystery continues. Nothing major seems to want to occur during the first week in Feb. for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GGEM digs the wave farther into the SW before bringing it east...end result is farther north and warmer, but a SE storm nevertheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Some climo tidbits before bed: KATL major (3.5"+) S/IP with most concentrated period highlighted: DEC: 2, 3-6, 11-13, 29 JAN: 1, 2-3, 7, 7-8, 9, 9-10, 12, 18, 18-19, 22, 23, 26, 28, 29-30 FEB: 10, 11-12, 11-12, 12, 15, 15-16, 17-18, 21, 23, 24-25, 26 MAR: 1, 2, 11, 13, 14, 24 KCHS/KSAV major (2'+) S/IP with most concentrated period highlighted: DEC: 6, 15, 17, 22-24, 27, 30-31 JAN: 9-11, 13, 25-6, 30 FEB: 8, 9-10, 11, 12, 13, 14-15, 15, 21-22, 25, 28 MAR: 3-4, 4, 4 Note that this storm would be on ~2/10 per the last three Euro runs. So, thsi is very believable from a climo standpoint. By the way, the mystery continues. Nothing major seems to want to occur during the first week in Feb. for whatever reason. I think it has a good deal with what occurred yesterday and today with highs in the middle 70's. Seems like for this time of year the pattern generally seems to go into a reload between mid-Jan (January thaw, reload) and the beginning of February. Ironically, already a concentration of pollen was in puddles from yesterday's early morning heavy rain showers and a thunderstorm sometime around 5 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GGEM digs the wave farther into the SW before bringing it east...end result is farther north and warmer, but a SE storm nevertheless... It looks like the PV is also a good bit west of the EURO which the CMC allows the storm to turn up sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like it is sagging south of me back in Ala. but Candyman in Columbus is about to get a nice surprise if they are cold enough. I have some flakes mixing in with the heavier batches. I'm at 32 even. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 For those of you smarter than me...which is pretty much most of you...is there any truth to the old saying about having a thunderstorm in the winter followed by snow a few days later? Just curious, had four or five decent rumbles last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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