oconeexman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ....and a 2M Temperature of 7º at Nashville next Thursday at 18z. Shows 2 nights of single digits here as well! Looking at potential only this far out and I likes it, could be our last shot...i hope not but we need to make some hay out of it just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Likely going to be on to the 0z 2/7 before we know whether this is legit or not, excluding a Lakes cutter, which is usually modeled accurately in the 5 day range. Even with this 18z run Burger, you can see the long wave trough in question, what energy gets ingested into that is anybodies guess, but the run still does have the general pattern, which would argue for suppression and at this range, that fact is a great thing. I am not on board, how can you be at this range, but the potential is certainly there with a stacked PV in residence to our north, and an amplified lobe coming down this way. Nice post and great points as usual! I'd imagine by Sunday our numbers will be up around 250 if the potential is still showing and we'll get to see the little blue dancing thingy... J/K LilJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'll take that a million times over at this stage of the game suppression on the GFS = a storm is going to come Exactly I'll much rather the storm go to Cuba at this point in time, than be in the "sweet spot." Likely going to be on to the 0z 2/7 before we know whether this is legit or not, excluding a Lakes cutter, which is usually modeled accurately in the 5 day range. Even with this 18z run Burger, you can see the long wave trough in question, what energy gets ingested into that is anybodies guess, but the run still does have the general pattern, which would argue for suppression and at this range, that fact is a great thing. I am not on board, how can you be at this range, but the potential is certainly there with a stacked PV in residence to our north, and an amplified lobe coming down this way. Classic Millz!!! Now if we can just get the NOGAPS and UKMET on board we may be on to something. Yep I was leaving for work so I wrote it hastily. I'm interested in the 00z runs but need some rest tonight so I won't be around to see what they look like. If I see a few more pages added to this thread I'll know I'm in for some excitement in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The thing is most locations in north georgia have already had 2 3.5" or greater snows. I wish when people talk about atlanta statistics or what happened in atlanta, there should always be an asterisk or mention with regards to what the rest of north ga experienced because too often the rest of north ga has different results/totals. For example, in both instances this year, atlanta somehow managed to get less than everywhere else. I don't know how it happens but it often does. It just bugs me because too often people only mention atlanta and it gives the impression that atlanta represents what happened in most locations when that simply isn't the case. I just wish the rest of the northern part of the state gets recognized whenever people bring up atlanta..and only atlanta. That said, don't take this the wrong way because your statistics have always been awesome and interesting to me and everyone. Lookout, i meant to add two things to what I already said: 1) I've been in Atlanta closely following wx since the winter of 1978-9. I can't recall two major S/IP's in one season during that entire time. It is very difficult to get that to occur. It is hard enough to get just one in a season. 2) I'm willing to bet that you'd have a tough time finding two major S/IP's at AHN in one season in the last 30-40 years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Too Lookout's question....after the ULL March snow of two years ago, I saw a depth plot of Ga. put out by FFC. Where are those spotter maps kept? I see them all the time for N.C. Heck, they can trot out a depth map for every county for every storm going way back. Where are Georgia's? And where are all the spotter maps from way back? How come only the airport data seems available? Aren't spotter plots deemed useful? T You can find maps/discussions back to 2008 here, just click on the year and look at the headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 72 hour 18Z GFS Ensemble Mean for Mon night through Thur night next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 p003 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf150.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 p003 http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf150.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 p003 Alright guys, before we get trigger happy on popping with the ens mean, and one or two of its members, look at the spread, especially with the 18z run. While I am always a fan of the ens mean at this range, as it smoothes out the differences in question, one has to look at the ens spread, and that is sig considering the GFS and GGEM. Instead of looking at 850 temps and precip over a range, it is better to look at the H5 (500mb) pattern and compare that amongst the big 3 (ECMWF, GFS, & GGEM). The setup amongst those three means has sig potential, with a long wave lobe coming south, but we do not know what and if any energy contained at the base will be enough to kick a storm. Looking at the 12z Euro ens mean, the NAO takes a precipitous drop from 400m pos anomaly to close 0 over the course of the next 7 days. That would open up a window, but given the long range guidance, it will likely be narrow and a thread the needle type of deal. We all know how that usually works out, and all I am saying is that there is a chance, even with 5 or so 18z GFS members showing an Apps runner, which would fit the bill as the pattern leading up to this looks more like early Spring compared to late Winter for the SE. Made it up to 73 today btw... WAYYYYY to far north (just kidding) That would be sweet, if this map came true, the red eye is right over me. I believe we'll get one or two more big snow storms in the southeast before spring takes over, next week could be the one. please don't quote the images, take the 5 seconds to delete the link as incorporating it adds sig consumption to the quality within the page count of a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That would be sweet, if this map came true, the red eye is right over me. I believe we'll get one or two more big snow storms in the southeast before spring takes over, next week could be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Damn....that reminds me of the early 2000's Bro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Its 41 and 27 DP there. The cold and dry air is coming in. The new nam has nearly 3" of rain over central and eastern GA. Just a ton of rain on the way..can't wait! Also, its perhaps just cold enough for snow to start in Northern GA, and maybe western Carolinas late tomorrow night, but will give way to plain rain. Still a few token sleet or snow flakes and actually maybe some accum. snow in n and nw GA possibly the NC mtns as well before the changeover. Its a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 OK, couldn't resist, this morning's Euro yields 13 inches of snow (estimate) for Fayetteville, NC next Thursday...only 8 more days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Robert, You don't think we fall below freezing Friday night up this way ? I think we may see a pretty decent Iceing event. I got a feeling models may be underdoing the cold/dry air. I hope anyway its possible. I haven't looked that much at this event on temps...been busy with other non-wx stuff lately. The SREF has you below zero at 850 til just after 12z Fri, but it also has the precip south of there til later.The models notoriously blow low level cold and dry air but this is a slightly different situation and don't know what to think, other than take them at their word. The cold is on the other side of the Apps this time for the most part. The earlier the prcecip arrives, the better the chance at snow or sleet to start, but with no HP to the north for long, it will probably switch over after a few hours, even there, however, the cold usually does hold on longer than any models show, so theres a chance you get some glazing before it goes above 32, but in the end probably wont' be that big of a deal. Theres always a chance at a substantial bust in this type of event, but it will come down to a nowcast type of event if it does. Thank your lucky stars theres no strong Arctic high in place this time, as this would be a devastating icestorm if there was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 its possible. I haven't looked that much at this event on temps...been busy with other non-wx stuff lately. The SREF has you below zero at 850 til just after 12z Fri, but it also has the precip south of there til later.The models notoriously blow low level cold and dry air but this is a slightly different situation and don't know what to think, other than take them at their word. The cold is on the other side of the Apps this time for the most part. The earlier the prcecip arrives, the better the chance at snow or sleet to start, but with no HP to the north for long, it will probably switch over after a few hours, even there, however, the cold usually does hold on longer than any models show, so theres a chance you get some glazing before it goes above 32, but in the end probably wont' be that big of a deal. Theres always a chance at a substantial bust in this type of event, but it will come down to a nowcast type of event if it does. Thank your lucky stars theres no strong Arctic high in place this time, as this would be a devastating icestorm if there was. I was suppose to get 48 yesterday only made it to 38, Then last night suppose to have risen well into the 40's to near 50 got up this morning 39 outside. NWS always blows on temps with just a minor CAD, Not saying that will be the case this Friday but could be ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It figures, we're in the 30's starting Thursday night through Friday night, with a 100% chance of rain Friday and Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It figures, we're in the 30's starting Thursday night through Friday night, with a 100% chance of rain Friday and Friday night. I gotta admit on this one, I am glad with all the rain coming its not going to be ZR. Could you imagine? Never thought I would be happy with 30's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0z GFS at 36...precip rolling in with only a small tongue of +1 at 800 and 850 mb that's nowhere near fully saturated. I'm thinking we may a little something frozen on the front end tomorrow, especially if it could start heavy enough to quickly cool the layer between 800mb and the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0z GFS at 36...precip rolling in with only a small tongue of +1 at 800 and 850 mb that's nowhere near fully saturated. I'm thinking we may a little something frozen on the front end tomorrow, especially if it could start heavy enough to quickly cool the layer between 800mb and the surface. It's more than possible that anything before Hour 36 is all snow given the wetbulbs in the atmosphere, even down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 My sounding for hour 30: Date: 30 hour AVN valid 6Z FRI 4 FEB 11 Station: 35.31,-81.23 Latitude: 35.31 Longitude: -81.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 225 SFC 996 254 0.9 -4.1 69 5.0 -1.0 154 4 274.3 274.8 272.3 282.1 2.83 2 950 636 -1.2 -7.2 64 6.0 -3.3 125 5 276.0 276.3 272.6 282.5 2.34 3 900 1069 0.4 -12.9 36 13.2 -3.8 152 6 281.9 282.1 274.8 286.5 1.58 4 850 1528 2.3 -13.4 30 15.7 -2.9 213 10 288.6 288.9 278.3 293.4 1.60 5 800 2018 1.6 -6.8 54 8.4 -1.8 232 16 292.8 293.4 281.9 301.4 2.86 6 750 2535 -0.9 -3.3 83 2.5 -2.0 240 21 295.6 296.3 284.4 307.4 3.98 7 700 3085 -2.2 -3.5 91 1.3 -2.9 253 29 300.0 300.8 286.3 312.7 4.21 8 650 3672 -4.6 -5.6 93 1.0 -5.0 258 39 303.8 304.5 287.3 315.6 3.87 9 600 4299 -7.6 -8.2 95 0.7 -7.8 249 48 307.4 308.0 288.1 318.1 3.42 10 550 4973 -10.4 -10.7 98 0.3 -10.5 236 57 311.8 312.4 289.2 321.6 3.08 11 500 5702 -14.3 -14.4 99 0.1 -14.3 238 71 315.6 316.1 289.9 323.8 2.50 12 450 6494 -19.1 -19.2 99 0.1 -19.1 246 76 319.3 319.6 290.5 325.5 1.86 13 400 7360 -25.6 -26.1 95 0.5 -25.6 250 81 321.8 322.0 290.5 325.7 1.14 14 350 8312 -33.6 -34.2 95 0.5 -33.7 252 89 323.4 323.5 290.5 325.6 0.61 15 300 9375 -41.1 -41.5 96 0.3 -41.2 252 105 327.4 327.5 291.3 328.7 0.34 16 250 10586 -51.7 -51.8 100 0.0 -51.8 251 123 329.1 329.2 291.6 329.6 0.13 17 200 12015 -54.4 -60.6 46 6.2 -54.5 260 119 346.7 346.7 296.0 346.9 0.05 18 150 13843 -59.7 -71.1 21 11.4 -59.9 263 107 367.3 367.3 300.1 367.3 0.02 19 100 16310 -70.2 -79.5 24 9.3 -70.2 265 81 392.1 392.1 304.1 392.2 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 BTW, quite a soaker for us on the QPF maps through 54 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The cold cometh down early next week...(and watch that little piece of energy coming out of Denver as it dives.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0z gfs says "nope" at hr 168...there is some development in the gulf during that time but I would bet the gfs suppresses it because the cold looks strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0z gfs says "nope" at hr 168...there is some development in the gulf during that time but I would bet the gfs suppresses it because the cold looks strong. 0z definitely trending much colder than previous runs from today, the type of cold that does nothing but suppress it on out of here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0z definitely trending much colder than previous runs from today, the type of cold that does nothing but suppress it on out of here! Yep...the 0z does nothing w/ the development in the gulf but push it south. Cold and dry on the 0z gfs but I'm really curious to see what the euro shows tonight. I'll have to see it in the morning though, I have to get up early. Goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0z definitely trending much colder than previous runs from today, the type of cold that does nothing but suppress it on out of here! I would rather see it have a suppressed look right now. Plenty of time for the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This is a nasty, prolonged arctic outbreak on the GFS for the Eastern half of the US. For us down here in the interior Southeast, it really begins shortly after hour 120 and it is constant through at least Day 9...I'm extremely impressed on the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 There is definiate potential with this run though. Also, the GFS is very progressive in trying to key in on the shortwaves. That low departing up in the NE will help us down the road and there is energy out west just waiting to be ejected. At least now we do not have to worry about a lakes cutter or temps. I would rather not have to worry about borderline temps and worry about the precip chances in future runs imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 There is definiate potential with this run though. Also, the GFS is very progressive in trying to key in on the shortwaves. That low departing up in the NE will help us down the road and there is energy out west just waiting to be ejected. At least now we do not have to worry about a lakes cutter or temps. I would rather not have to worry about borderline temps and worry about the precip chances in future runs imo... Man, if that cold air actually gets to us, and we could get a split flow at the same time, we'd be in business. Even without a good block, get some energy riding the southern stream. A Feb. to remember. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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