Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The surface high has shifted into the NE as well now, so there should be some decent CAD coming in, so a lot of locations in NC and even northern SC should experience surface temps dropping to freezing and below as the system moves by to the south. The models are pretty much exactly where I want them at this time... The 12z GFS and NOGAPS are suppressed, and the GGEM and ECWMF show nice hits for the Southeast. I'll post some QPF numbers soon, most have gone up from 00z. Yeah, there is an actual surface high of 1028 mb over the northeast. the euro has the 0c surface line into the upstate to the ga border. Given the euro's tendency to overdo surface temps with the last few systems, this probably extends into northeast ga. So could be quite a bit of sleet/freezing rain in a narrow band immediately south of the all snow line. Especially northeast ga/southern upstate. Virtually all of north carolina, south carolina, and northern and central ga sees over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yep this would be the BIGFOOT we are looking for. Well need back to back euro runs inside 5 days (old rule of thumb). Id say weve had 2 good runs. If it holds for # 3 in a row tonight at 0z, then Its to be taking seriously. It already has my attention and no doubt euro threads the needle perfect for MBY. If this verified it would be the winter of all winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm still a little concerned how far north the ECWMF is. However, the second most accurate model in this time frame... the UKMET, is actually farther south. It looks like the ECWMF is the northern outlier at this time, which makes me feel pretty good actually, since as a snow lover, I don't want to see this thing trend any further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is the second straight run to give me over 1" qpf. Actually around 1.15" precip, all snow. Which would be amazing! I'll do some other cities in a moment. Major cities in TN would be appreciated Robert. TIA This looks like a great southern apps storm as presented on the Euro btw, as well as MANY other locals too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 No, I'm not going to read this board and soak up another entire weekend of time.....not going to...not going to.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Major cities in TN would be appreciated Robert. TIA This looks like a great southern apps storm as presented on the Euro btw, as well as MANY other locals too. Virtually the entire southern half of tn sees 0.50 or greater. 0.25 for the northern 1/3rd or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is my biggest concern. We don't have any wiggle room. 50 miles east of this run would be perfect (basically the 0z euro)! I like how the GGEM/UKMET are a smidge further S/E of the Euro. We are still going to have sweat this one out to the very end, as usual. If this moved 50 miles west we would be toast, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The 12z ECMWF literally for RDU is: 1.35 liquid QPF of this it looks like at least 0.48 inches is snow, the next 0.87 would likely be snow and sleet. The model keeps the surface freezing line just south of the Triangel the whole storm and has the 850 T 0 line right near Raleigh the whole storm. This run literlaly would be a big mess of proably 4-8 inches of snow and also probably a couple of inches of sleet. Yeah, this would be an awesome storm, now we just need it to hold. Any analogs for this storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 From 108-120HR, much colder run. LP goes from Mobile @ 1008mb to south GA @ 1004 mb. Widespread 0.5 QPF showing up in MS/AL/GA. 850 line far south of I-20 corridor. Major February snowstorm. I was wondering where that line was centered, bing. Appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Only thing I'm worried about is, The Euro seems to always show super storms this far out only to come out as half the QPF it produces now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I do expect even if we get the 3-in-a-row run from the Euro it will lose the storm in the 3-4 day time period as it did the Christmas storm and perhaps bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, there is an actual surface high of 1028 mb over the northeast. the euro has the 0c surface line into the upstate to the ga border. Given the euro's tendency to overdo surface temps with the last few systems, this probably extends into northeast ga. So could be quite a bit of sleet/freezing rain immediately south of the all snow line. Especially northeast ga/southern upstate. No doubt abou it, the Euro's 2 meter temp.'s have a solid warm bias in these winter storm situations. I'm confident that as modeled, that KATL-KAHN would be at or a little below 32, even when it would turn to IP and then ZR, due to some CAD on this run (unlike last run). I'd like to see the low a tad weaker/a little further south for best case scenario if one wanted pure snow. OTOH, this isn't far from a major IP/ZR for ATL-AHN after the snow for those who prefer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Only thing I'm worried about is, The Euro seems to always show super storms this far out only to come out as half the QPF it produces now. Yep always just fun to imagine with the qpf what it actually is is anybodies guess but as Lookout mentioned when the GFS came out that sort of track says there will be substantial moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, this would be an awesome storm, now we just need it to hold. Any analogs for this storm yet? I listed several a few days ago. I will study it a bit more later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If I had to make a guess, and i don't have the exact soundings so it is just a guess, but verbatim atlanta to athens would likely get 3 to 6 before some kind of changeover..to what remains to be seen but could be significant amounts of sleet/freezing rain. Based on where the 4c 850mb temps are, it will probably be a relatively narrow band. Rome to hartwell to charlotte to just north of rdu gets over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Ok, who is the hero to start the next thread? Need to make it a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 See above post. Strong dynamics, heavy precip, and temps barely above 0c would likely mean snow further south than the actual representation there. There is even a hint of it on the maps. Plus there are indications of damming with the 0c surface line reaching the ga border near the sc line. could be a decent swath of mixed precip south of the snow line. Monster storm though for those who stay all snow. Well over an inch in most places. Over .87" For Dalton,GA per the 12z! Not even going into higher ratios lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Ok, who is the hero to start the next thread? Need to make it a good one. One is already up, not sure who started it. We need Lookout to lock this one up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Maybe I'm wrong but looks like an eastern nc screw ya special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If I had to make a guess, and i don't have the exact soundings so it is just a guess, but verbatim atlanta to athens would likely get 3 to 6 before some kind of changeover..to what remains to be seen. Rome to hartwell to charlotte to just north of rdu gets over a foot. The QPF is certainly there for it, you're right I'm sure as is Phil of the Euro being a little too warm on sfc temps...but like Allan pointed out for CLT we could see a good dump of snow with a large amount of sleet which would just be pretty incredible...I couldn't imagine 8 inches of snow with an inch or two of sleet (probably not going to happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Precip Totals Verbatim: BNA: .48" (All Snow) ATL: 1.03" (Rain for most of it verbatim, maybe around .1 or so as snow at the end) TYS: .59 (All Snow) GSP: 1.43" (850mb temps approach 0 at the height of precip, so will need to look at soundings later to determine if there is a warmer layer above 850mb... but mostly Snow) AVL: 1.12" (All Snow) CLT: 1.16" (Same Deal as GSP, maybe slightly colder) GSO: 1.41" (All Snow) RAH: 1.35" (Snow to start... warms up at 850mb but not at the surface so likely a changeover to freezing rain / sleet, then back to snow before ending. About .6 or so is all snow) CAE: .99" (All Rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 No doubt abou it, the Euro's 2 meter temp.'s have a solid warm bias in these winter storm situations. I'm confident that as modeled, that KATL-KAHN would be at or a little below 32, even when it would turn to IP and then ZR, due to some CAD on this run (unlike last run). I'd like to see the low a tad weaker/a little further south for best case scenario if one wanted pure snow. OTOH, this isn't far from a major IP/ZR for ATL-AHN after the snow for those who prefer that. I agree larry, this is one of those situations where 25 to 50 miles is going to make a HUGE difference for some. For all snow for atlanta and athens, I certainly hope it's a few tens of miles south. If not, we could be looking at a major freezing rain/sleet storm after several inches of snow. Precip Totals Verbatim: BNA: .48" (All Snow) ATL: 1.03" (Rain for most of it verbatim, maybe around .1 or so as snow at the end) TYS: .59 (All Snow) GSP: 1.43" (850mb temps approach 0 at the height of precip, so will need to look at soundings later to determine if there is a warmer layer above 850mb... but mostly Snow) AVL: 1.12" (All Snow) CLT: 1.16" (Same Deal as GSP, maybe slightly colder) GSO: 1.41" (All Snow) RAH: 1.35" (Snow to start... warms up at 850mb but not at the surface so likely a changeover to freezing rain / sleet, then back to snow before ending. About .6 or so is all snow) CAE: .99" (All Rain) I don't have the exact soundings but Based on what I see, atlanta gets several inches at the start. 0c is down near lagrange with 0.25 already fallen for the city and just north of there. 0c runs as far south as montgomery alabama at 114, which indicates the model is picking up on a fair bit of evaporational cooling in the mid levels after precip is established. As I said earlier though, exact details like this are mostly irrelevant because the slightest shift in the low track has huge implications along the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I agree larry, this is one of those situations where 25 to 50 miles is going to make a HUGE difference for some. For all snow for atlanta and athens, I certainly hope it's a few tens of miles south. If not, we could be looking at a major freezing rain/sleet storm after several inches of snow. And considering ATL is the biggest city in the South with the busiest airport in the world, a huge Ice event would NOT be good for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I agree larry, this is one of those situations where 25 to 50 miles is going to make a HUGE difference for some. For all snow for atlanta and athens, I certainly hope it's a few tens of miles south. If not, we could be looking at a major freezing rain/sleet storm after several inches of snow. In my opinion the last run of the Euro was much better for you guys in GA, because the surface low wasn't so strong that it drew up all the WAA aloft. You need a weaker low in GA to keep the Warm Air Aloft in Georgia at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Precip Totals Verbatim: BNA: .48" (All Snow) ATL: 1.03" (Rain for most of it verbatim, maybe around .1 or so as snow at the end) TYS: .59 (All Snow) GSP: 1.43" (850mb temps approach 0 at the height of precip, so will need to look at soundings later to determine if there is a warmer layer above 850mb... but mostly Snow) AVL: 1.12" (All Snow) CLT: 1.16" (Same Deal as GSP, maybe slightly colder) GSO: 1.41" (All Snow) RAH: 1.35" (Snow to start... warms up at 850mb but not at the surface so likely a changeover to freezing rain / sleet, then back to snow before ending. About .6 or so is all snow) CAE: .99" (All Rain) do you have lyh...thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If I had to make a guess, and i don't have the exact soundings so it is just a guess, but verbatim atlanta to athens would likely get 3 to 6 before some kind of changeover..to what remains to be seen but could be significant amounts of sleet/freezing rain. Based on where the 4c 850mb temps are, it will probably be a relatively narrow band. Rome to hartwell to charlotte to just north of rdu gets over a foot. That sounds great! I'm northwest of Atlanta so I'm guessing I see 6-10" per the amounts you just stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 1.29 here, appears to be all snow. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.