burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 @114 it's stronger let's see how it all plays out but looks close to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 would that 1042 H be to strong and push the storm way south? @ 96HR, 1008mb LP forming near TX/MX border. 1042mb HP in the heartland.Could end up suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 @120 heavy snow in WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 by 114, a 1008 low is near Mobile and snow is spreading across the South, its reached the central Carolinas. The 850 s are still cold from FAY to ATL. at 120 Ga and the Carolinas are really getting hit hard. Major QPF showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Through 114, much colder for ga/al 0c runs through south central ms, al, SOUTH of atlanta to near athens to north of columbia. Evidence of some evaporational cooling so those will drop. 0.25 to 0.50 amounts in ms/al..already 0.25 in atlanta. This could be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 would that 1042 H be to strong and push the storm way south? No, but it will help keep it from cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This run is too warm for SC and GA and it's on the edge for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 HELLO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 would that 1042 H be to strong and push the storm way south? Would you let the guys finish their analysis before bombarding them with questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 By 120, 0c has moved north though to from rome to anderson to south of charlotte. Well over 0.50 amounts for ga, sc, and most of nc. Taken literally it's heavy snow to either a mix or rain I think for ga, huge hit though for the northern half of ga, upstate, and most of nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro is a hair west of 0z run, good to see it consistent. RDU would snow at the beginning, mix and then change back to snow per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Through 114, much colder for ga/al 0c runs through south central ms, al, SOUTH of atlanta to near athens to north of columbia. Evidence of some evaporational cooling so those will drop. 0.25 to 0.50 amounts in ms/al..already 0.25 in atlanta. This could be huge. This run is too warm for SC and GA and it's on the edge for MBY So which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just out . this just out from Morristown TENN> THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION SOMETIME MID-WEEK. AT THIS TIME…THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK…INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS THE EXACT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Through 114, much colder for ga/al 0c runs through south central ms, al, SOUTH of atlanta to near athens to north of columbia. Evidence of some evaporational cooling so those will drop. 0.25 to 0.50 amounts in ms/al..already 0.25 in atlanta. This could be huge. @120 though it really warms up for you guys....not saying that will happen but verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 126, it might change back over to all snow for atlanta/athens. Based upon how heavy precip is in these locations and the fact 850s are barely above 0, atlanta/athens could very well stay all snow. by 120 hours, an INCH liquid over northeast ga/upstate with another 0.25 through 126..holy mother this is a huge storm on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Heavy duty snowstorm, intense rates from northern GA (ATL starts as snow but may barely changeover) GSP AVL CLT GSO are hit hard with the 850 low and are cold enough. The heavy precip works right throug the Carolinas at 126 and reaches RIC and near DC. The low goes from Valdosta to coastal SC. It glances DC and Philly. Awesome run for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 So which is it? I'm just saying verbatim and it was @120 I should have clarified....Lookout is an expert for GA so by all means go by what he says. One thing is that evap cooling should keep it from warming I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro is a hair west of 0z run, good to see it consistent. RDU would snow at the beginning, mix and then change back to snow per this run. That's pretty much what I'm seeing also. We are right on that line temp wise but man this is so close to being a bomb for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 From 108-120HR, much colder run. LP goes from Mobile @ 1008mb to south GA @ 1004 mb. Widespread 0.5 QPF showing up in MS/AL/GA. 850 line far south of I-20 corridor. Major February snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Heavy duty snowstorm, intense rates from northern GA (ATL starts as snow but may barely changeover) GSP AVL CLT GSO are hit hard with the 850 low and are cold enough. The heavy precip works right throug the Carolinas at 126 and reaches RIC and near DC. The low goes from Valdosta to coastal SC. It glances DC and Philly. Awesome run for many. Yep this would be the BIGFOOT we are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Can someone say, "Weather Porn"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 HELLO! 1) This is weird as the maps I see have the low center further south about 40 miles N of the FL border. 2) This run is encouraging for a shot at something major for ATL-AHN even though it is margin al here as modeled as 850. The best case scenario for ATL-AHN would probably be a weaker low, which would probably mean a slightly further south track. Even when 850's go above 0C here, there is CAD/likely IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 That's pretty much what I'm seeing also. We are right on that line temp wise but man this is so close to being a bomb for us! I would take this run in a heartbeat, we would have crazy QPF, we would mix but it would still be awesome. It's great to see the Euro hold serve. I still think our biggest fear should be if this comes west more, I am not worried about this thing missing us south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is the second straight run to give me over 1" qpf. Actually around 1.15" precip, all snow. Which would be amazing! I'll do some other cities in a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 By 120, 0c has moved north though to from rome to anderson to south of charlotte. Well over 0.50 amounts for ga, sc, and most of nc. Taken literally it's heavy snow to either a mix or rain I think for ga, huge hit though for the northern half of ga, upstate, and most of nc. The surface high has shifted into the NE as well now, so there should be some decent CAD coming in, so a lot of locations in NC and even northern SC should experience surface temps dropping to freezing and below as the system moves by to the south. The models are pretty much exactly where I want them at this time... The 12z GFS and NOGAPS are suppressed, and the GGEM and ECWMF show nice hits for the Southeast. I'll post some QPF numbers soon, most have gone up from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 @120 though it really warms up for you guys....not saying that will happen but verbatim. See above post. Strong dynamics, heavy precip, and temps barely above 0c would likely mean snow further south than the actual representation there. There is even a hint of it on the maps. Plus there are indications of damming with the 0c surface line reaching the ga border near the sc line. could be a decent swath of mixed precip south of the snow line. Monster storm though for those who stay all snow. Well over an inch in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 New discussion thread... to be continued after current model runs I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Anyone remember another storm that had a similar track? I believe it was the early 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I would take this run in a heartbeat, we would have crazy QPF, we would mix but it would still be awesome. It's great to see the Euro hold serve. I still think our biggest fear should be if this comes west more, I am not worried about this thing missing us south and east. This is my biggest concern. We don't have any wiggle room. 50 miles east of this run would be perfect (basically the 0z euro)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The 12z ECMWF literally for RDU is: 1.35 liquid QPF of this it looks like at least 0.48 inches is snow, the next 0.87 would likely be snow and sleet. The model keeps the surface freezing line just south of the Triangel the whole storm and has the 850 T 0 line right near Raleigh the whole storm. This run literlaly would be a big mess of proably 4-8 inches of snow and also probably a couple of inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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