Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just read a little bit from the Big Dog, He says this is tricky and depends on how quick the sw comes out? But he thinks it will come out in time for a major phasing idea Wednesday and Thursday with the monster traveling from New Orleans to Norfolk to Nantucket. Time to end winter with a bang! At least for a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Time to end winter with a bang! At least for a few weeks. yep i was reading him too. Looks interesting but nothing to get excited over until tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 yep i was reading him too. Looks interesting but nothing to get excited over until tuesday I'm putting my plow on this evening before the monday storm And just leave it on for wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 They always trend toward climo if possible this far out (even though 44 is 10 degrees or so cooler than climo), they'll come around. That's the hint they see it coming too, they just gradually break us in to it! They had us with a high of 35 next Thursday yesterday though, don't quite get why they upped it by 10 degrees. Oh well. On to the 12Z GFS...I'm rooting for it to maintain the suppressed solution for a while, as I remember the Xmas and Jan 10 storms both had a serious last minute NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like the NAM is a little colder at the end of its' run than at 6z . Appears to be laying down a nice foundation of cold air before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm putting my plow on this evening before the monday storm And just leave on for wednesday then it wont verify!!! everytime i put them on early it is just small events. When I wait until day before then we get the MUCH GRANDE events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow, I'm liking this turnaround. Is the GGEM the only model still showing a well inland track? Either way good to see our "king" come on board. The Euro at face value would be backside flurries for ATL with sig. snow not too far north of the city looking at how close temps are, but the trend is certainly our friend at this point. FFC even looks to be on the ball (though their forecast high of 44 on Thursday for MBY doesn't quite make sense). Actually, it would be extraordinarily close in atlanta. The northern burbs to athens or just north of athens get slammed no doubt but atlanta itself is right on the 0c line at 126 to 132 hours. Probably an inch or two, switching to a mix based on the fact 850s barely get above 0, before going back to snow. Details like that are mostly for giggles at this stage but just fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like the NAM is a little colder at the end of its' run than at 6z . Appears to be laying down a nice foundation of cold air before the storm. Yeah, I've got the gfs out to hr 99 and appears to be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z GFS looks more like the 6z GFS it pops a low around MYR it's a eastern Carolina special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, I've got the gfs out to hr 99 and appears to be colder. Yep, just looking at that. Appears to be in lock step with the NAM through 84h. Our NE low is farther SW an slower to move out. That would explain the colder solution. Plus the HP in the northern plains is a little stronger and better positioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is a good run for the GFS, it kind of makes you think it will probably trend stronger and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The gfs really shears out the energy then tries to get a pop a sfc low off MYR...With this not being a strong system on the gfs the 2m temps imo would probably be an issue for E. NC....But who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is a good run for the GFS, it kind of makes you think it will probably trend stronger and wetter. I agree burger...If the euro continues to show a strong system I think the gfs will move that direction. Then the track will be an issue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Nothing special for most in the SE per the 12z GFS. But this is where we want it from experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The gfs really shears out the energy then tries to get a pop a sfc low off MYR...With this not being a strong system on the gfs the 2m temps imo would probably be an issue for E. NC....But who knows at this point. Looks like FAY is golden this run their temps are good enough just verbatim. It keeps everything well east...but again just where you want it on the GFS right now. Probably 00z will have an adjustment west and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I agree burger...If the euro continues to show a strong system I think the gfs will move that direction. Then the track will be an issue... And its already taking the vort thru east Tenn. It does keep it a little stronger each run. Still weakens it as it moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Nothing special for most in the SE per the 12z GFS. But this is where we want it from experience. Puts down 0.20" IMBY all snow. Temps below freezing the entire event. Not a big event yet.....but this is a good run for the GFS. Right where we want it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The GFS is still pretty weak here, the place where it drops the most snow is Ok, Ark. Also, it has a one day cold shot then here comes pacific air flooding the country, so a warm up is coming if this is right. I know other models were hinting at this for a while, don't know yet how warm it gets, but if the PNA breaks down it probably changes the pattern for a while. The good news is this is a good track for the GFS, hopefully other models are similar. There's not much play room on temps in this part of NC as well, per EUro as well, so any strengthening could be a little warmer. As always it has to be perfect here. I think TENN does well with no temp problems anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z GFS looks more like the 6z GFS it pops a low around MYR it's a eastern Carolina special. It seems to be by itself wanting to weaken the gulf low while transfering the energy off the coast like it does. Euro of course has one solid low that just moves on through. The canadian seems to want to transfer the energy but it's later and doesn't really transfer off the se coast but rather inland...which in and of itself is probably incorrect. So still some interesting differences between the models. btw, it goes without saying that if this energy transfer doesn't happen or it's later than the gfs shows, precip inland would be much heavier than what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Puts down 0.20" IMBY all snow. Temps below freezing the entire event. Not a big event yet.....but this is a good run for the GFS. Right where we want it to be. That surface map is trash. Even if this stays a southern slider it does not form a low, then weaken as it moves across the gulf coast states then jump a low to the coast with the vort going thru east Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 And its already taking the vort thru east Tenn. It does keep it a little stronger each run. Still weakens it as it moves east That's the 500mb energy diving down............., the surface reflection is well to the south/east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The GFS is still struggling with resolving the H5 evolution, and we are seeing a bias, that we have seen numerous times this winter play itself out again. The model is dampening the southern stream energy out to quickly through lower MS river valley. Compared to the 0z Euro at 132hrs, the global is too quick in shearing this energy out after it comes out of TX. Given the Euro's track record this winter in handling the energy more accurately at this range and while it traverses this region compared to the GFS, I would weight a final solution more heavily on it. Despite the weakness at the surface, the model still have the overall track, from just south of LA, coming off around CHS/SAV, and OTS, which is a favored track for a widespread SE SN-storm given that cold air is in place. Edit: And furthermore, this does not appear to be a phasing scenario on the European, or GFS, so we should see less variability in run-to-run solutions compared to the period leading up to the Christmas storm, which was dependent on a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Agree.........but with the mean from the individual members of the Euro being south of the OP, I feel a little less concerned. at least we have some wiggle room per the Euro. This might be the storm we have been waiting on folks. This week will be fun to watch. GSP is drinking the GFS Kool-aid right now, and I can understand the conservative approach. Still have snow in our forecast, but they are implying a non-event in the discussion. Lol....the GFS was the colder model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ukmet is way south. It has the surface low crossing florida. I am now becoming worried we could miss this thing to the south. Also 12z nogaps, shears out the wave and basically has no storm at all now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Lol....the GFS was the colder model. I'm not being sarcastic...but the GFS thermal profile per the 00z soundings indicated pretty much all sn across the most of the cwfa. The EC and the GGEM soundings both showed too deep of a warm layer just off the sfc...ie: the energy diagrams indicted ra or a ra/sn mix as the most likely p-type. It's way too early to make any specific call with the llvl thicknesses this far out of agreement. Especially considering the large scale dynamics are at odds with the timing and the degree of forcing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm not being sarcastic...but the GFS thermal profile per the 00z soundings indicated pretty much all sn across the most of the cwfa. The EC and the GGEM soundings both showed too deep of a warm layer just off the sfc...ie: the energy diagrams indicted ra or a ra/sn mix as the most likely p-type. It's way too early to make any specific call with the llvl thicknesses this far out of agreement. Especially considering the large scale dynamics are at odds with the timing and the degree of forcing as well. Especially with the past two storms if you start sounding the alarms early it's a set up for major fail. Also given the Euro it makes total sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm not being sarcastic...but the GFS thermal profile per the 00z soundings indicated pretty much all sn across the most of the cwfa. The EC and the GGEM soundings both showed too deep of a warm layer just off the sfc...ie: the energy diagrams indicted ra or a ra/sn mix as the most likely p-type. It's way too early to make any specific call with the llvl thicknesses this far out of agreement. Especially considering the large scale dynamics are at odds with the timing and the degree of forcing as well. For what area? The Euro was all snow for a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Especially with the past two storms if you start sounding the alarms early it's a set up for major fail. Also given the Euro it makes total sense. Exactly. That last storm fell apart faster than Charlie Sheen's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z Canadian has come further south. Weak LP south of AL gulf coast. But a good trend from it's TN/KY solution. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 For what area? The Euro was all snow for a lot of places. Dropped soundings across the piedmont...the mtns were always sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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