DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just too far out for the DGEX right now, mainly for entertainment purposes at this distance. I do like it up close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Pretty much a blockbuster event on the 00z Eurot for most of the North South Carolina, Most of North Carolina and East Tennessee. The only thing that bugs me right now, is that its sill very close in locations like GSP/CLT/and RDU so any trend north would likely mean more liquid precip. However, considering the trend the last day or so, things are heading in the right direction. P.S. This run finally made me give in and do the Accuweather Pro trial... very impressed so far with the ECWMF suite. Yea just verbatim from last nights run I stay all rain and can see the snow a few miles to the north....and it's on the backside which is never good. But you know I'll always take just being on the outside looking in for now especially considering this is kind of a "shouldn't happen" storm given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 DGEX is north/west. Mountains, Foothills, Tennessee, southern VA exclusive. dgex The DGEX says, "congrats western TN". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Basically we need to see a superbomb a week out so when it trends worse it still works out by the time the event materializes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro has a low here of -18C fri morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro has a low here of -18C fri morning Have fun in the Antarctic.....you know it makes you wonder with every model run always hinting at epic cold it might hit once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 W/ all of the models sensing a storm this far out, one would think there is fairly significant potential for a major winter storm for someone in the SE...and most of the East coast for that matter. I still think this will try to go inland. I keep waiting for the next Euro run to send this into Kentucky. As for the GFS, it has been getting on board late w/ many of the slp's this winter. I agree w/ others in that the weaker this is depicted on the GFS the better chance it may signal for a track through the south. Once it picks up on the storm's potential, it will really wind up that storm..and bring it northwest to a degree IMO. That said the CPC ensemble means for the NAO do turn downward towards neutral around that time frame - but just for that time frame of the storm(maybe heads down later in the month). I find that interesting. Could it be signalling a storm? Very well could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I don't see this inland at all. Too much cold air in here even before the big storm hits, I think it will keep the low pushed to the south, much like the Jan 9th storm. Plus, the general trend has been south and east lately. Reading the disco's this morning from the NWS offices pretty much hints at the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 HPC disco PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD351 AM EST SAT FEB 05 2011 VALID 12Z WED FEB 09 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 12 2011 CONUS TROUGHING LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE EVEN WITH THE SHORTER TERM SYSTEMS SO DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT BEST. HOWEVER... SYNOPTIC FLOW IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI/D6 WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HAS TURNED DECIDEDLY TROUGHY IN RECENT MODEL RUNS THOUGH A FAIR AMOUNTOF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE ENSEMBLES. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST WED/D4 SHOULDFORM SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU/D5. 00Z ECMWF HAS QUICKENED ITS PACE FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED... SO SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS HAS DECREASED HERE. AFTER THAT... QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHETHER THE LOW STAYS FLATTER AND MORE OUT TO SEA OR MORE AMPLIFIED AND RIDES UP THE COAST. ANY VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND ANYTHING IS ON THE TABLE RIGHT NOW. SIDED WITH THE ECMWF MORE SO THAN THE GFS DUE TO ITS PREFERRED HANDLING OFSHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT DIVES DOWN THROUGH THE WEST IN THE SHORT TERM. 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SURPRISINGLY WEAK IN THEIR PMSL FIELDS CONSIDERING BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS DEEPEN THE SFC LOW SMARTLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i agree everything right now seems to be trending a little south and east and the cold air will keep the storm suppressed to the or close to the gulf coast maybe a tad inland. polar vortex trending a little stronger. i do know models will flip flop but thinking is gulf coast up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I don't see this inland at all. Too much cold air in here even before the big storm hits, I think it will keep the low pushed to the south, much like the Jan 9th storm. Plus, the general trend has been south and east lately. Reading the disco's this morning from the NWS offices pretty much hints at the same thing. Dacula. Yeah, I can see both sides of this. For sure nothing is set in stone. Here is where HPC puts this on day 6. That said, the potential for a strong storm is there. That is my main reasoning for thinking it goes inland. Though if the Euro holds serve at 12z along w/ the other European models, I will be be less concerned of a cutter or Apps runner. Obviously this will change some... And yes, the Euro ensembles do make this interesting.(edit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yep, unless we get a '93 storm, someone somewhere in the south is probably going to miss out on this one, who is the big question! And on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 BTW, today is National Weatherperson's Day! "Saturday, February 5 is National Weatherman's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation. Many of us take weather information for granted. Turn on a light switch, you get light. Turn on your television or radio, or check a web site and you get the weather forecast. It’s easy to forget that around the clock, dedicated meteorologists and weathercasters are vigilantly creating forecasts to help you plan your day, and issuing warnings to help keep you safe." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Had a great feeling seeing this suppressed on most modeling while yesterdays 12z Euro gave KTRI 1.08 - all snow. When the 0z Euro went south and east with its ensembles south and east it made me pause and think......................."why not" This has been the seasonal trend for areas south, southwest, and southeast to cash in while KTRI gets nickled and dimed again. Makes a lot of sense with this winters history right before me. I noticed in the thread for the 0z Euro that someone said TYS was .47 and all snow and that RDU got hammered. I would think that if TYS is at .47 that KTRI would be b/w .25-.35. Quite a change from yesterdays wallop the Euro gave. Also in terested in QPF for BNA if anyone has it. Still looks like a really good snow for someone - The next 24 hours of modeling will be critical IMO - Good luck all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FWIW - which isn't much , the weather channel just moved their graphics substantially. 15 minutes ago had the low pressure in western SC for next weeks storm, just glanced again and had it running through the gulf into northern Florida then out to sea. This probably should go in the banter thread, but who wants to take a bet that accuweathers first graphic for this storm has the snow axis through Kentucky/Ohio Valley into the midatlantic and northeast??? Any takers?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 KTRI ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 00Z FEB05 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 00Z 05-FEB 0.5 3.9 1018 98 87 0.00 566 551 SAT 06Z 05-FEB 1.8 5.2 1014 97 85 0.01 564 552 SAT 12Z 05-FEB 2.6 7.0 1008 96 79 0.04 560 554 SAT 18Z 05-FEB 6.2 1.1 1005 80 19 0.02 552 547 SUN 00Z 06-FEB -0.5 -5.1 1011 73 25 0.00 550 542 SUN 06Z 06-FEB -2.6 -4.7 1016 80 22 0.00 554 542 SUN 12Z 06-FEB -4.0 -2.9 1017 86 11 0.00 555 542 SUN 18Z 06-FEB 6.5 -0.6 1015 49 29 0.00 556 544 MON 00Z 07-FEB 1.9 0.7 1016 70 53 0.00 556 543 MON 06Z 07-FEB -1.2 0.5 1016 83 67 0.00 554 541 MON 12Z 07-FEB -2.0 0.9 1015 84 65 0.00 553 540 MON 18Z 07-FEB 8.8 1.7 1010 47 79 0.00 550 542 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 2.9 -1.2 1009 93 90 0.15 542 535 TUE 06Z 08-FEB -2.9 -8.5 1016 88 62 0.09 539 526 TUE 12Z 08-FEB -4.9 -10.7 1021 79 16 0.03 548 531 TUE 18Z 08-FEB -0.3 -8.9 1023 49 32 0.01 550 532 WED 00Z 09-FEB -4.3 -9.3 1026 63 70 0.00 550 530 WED 06Z 09-FEB -6.9 -9.4 1028 65 43 0.00 554 532 WED 12Z 09-FEB -6.0 -6.9 1029 57 76 0.00 555 533 WED 18Z 09-FEB 3.5 -4.6 1023 38 51 0.00 556 537 THU 00Z 10-FEB -1.5 -4.4 1021 66 56 0.00 554 537 THU 06Z 10-FEB -3.9 -5.2 1019 82 99 0.20 551 536 THU 12Z 10-FEB -6.0 -7.5 1015 90 100 0.29 545 534 THU 18Z 10-FEB -7.9 -12.8 1020 73 91 0.16 539 523 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -12.2 -14.0 1024 76 4 0.01 544 525 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -17.1 -9.7 1026 76 7 0.00 547 527 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -21.3 -8.8 1028 68 7 0.00 547 526 FRI 18Z 11-FEB -2.6 -7.7 1027 48 4 0.00 548 527 SAT 00Z 12-FEB -5.5 -7.8 1028 58 9 0.00 549 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 BNA ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z FEB05 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 00Z 05-FEB 1.8 2.6 1017 87 80 0.00 562 548 SAT 06Z 05-FEB 2.9 5.8 1011 97 87 0.05 558 550 SAT 12Z 05-FEB 2.9 -4.1 1008 98 15 0.09 547 541 SAT 18Z 05-FEB 2.0 -8.1 1011 64 54 0.02 539 530 SUN 00Z 06-FEB -0.1 -4.1 1013 77 35 0.00 551 541 SUN 06Z 06-FEB -2.4 -1.4 1015 84 18 0.00 553 541 SUN 12Z 06-FEB -3.0 -1.6 1016 88 50 0.00 552 540 SUN 18Z 06-FEB 7.9 -0.2 1016 47 59 0.00 554 541 MON 00Z 07-FEB 4.1 0.0 1015 74 78 0.00 552 540 MON 06Z 07-FEB 1.5 -0.1 1015 80 85 0.00 550 537 MON 12Z 07-FEB 2.1 -0.4 1013 83 84 0.02 548 537 MON 18Z 07-FEB 2.5 -3.4 1013 97 91 0.10 542 532 TUE 00Z 08-FEB 1.0 -9.0 1017 81 68 0.04 538 524 TUE 06Z 08-FEB -2.5 -9.9 1022 83 25 0.00 544 527 TUE 12Z 08-FEB -4.3 -8.3 1025 76 32 0.00 550 530 TUE 18Z 08-FEB 1.1 -7.5 1027 47 69 0.00 552 530 WED 00Z 09-FEB -2.8 -6.8 1028 69 70 0.00 553 531 WED 06Z 09-FEB -4.5 -5.1 1029 66 78 0.00 555 533 WED 12Z 09-FEB -4.5 -5.2 1029 62 64 0.00 555 533 WED 18Z 09-FEB 1.4 -4.6 1025 44 72 0.00 556 536 THU 00Z 10-FEB -2.3 -6.4 1022 68 98 0.04 552 534 THU 06Z 10-FEB -5.6 -7.5 1021 86 100 0.30 546 530 THU 12Z 10-FEB -10.4 -10.6 1023 80 100 0.18 539 521 THU 18Z 10-FEB -6.4 -10.8 1026 53 4 0.02 542 522 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -11.8 -9.2 1026 77 8 0.00 547 527 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -13.0 -6.9 1028 67 5 0.00 548 527 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -15.4 -6.5 1029 69 4 0.00 547 525 FRI 18Z 11-FEB -2.5 -6.4 1030 41 4 0.00 549 525 SAT 00Z 12-FEB -4.0 -6.6 1029 58 4 0.00 548 526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FWIW - which isn't much , the weather channel just moved their graphics substantially. 15 minutes ago had the low pressure in western SC for next weeks storm, just glanced again and had it running through the gulf into northern Florida then out to sea. This probably should go in the banter thread, but who wants to take a bet that accuweathers first graphic for this storm has the snow axis through Kentucky/Ohio Valley into the midatlantic and northeast??? Any takers?? LOL.. I bet you are right on that. Now the Ukmet still has a hugger or slight inland track for the past two runs. The CMC is still well inland and the JMA is a good hit. Remember the storm two weeks ago that was a fail? The combo of those three models took the Euro and GFS to the shed. Now they could be wrong this time. But there is still a lot of room for a correction North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FWIW - which isn't much , the weather channel just moved their graphics substantially. 15 minutes ago had the low pressure in western SC for next weeks storm, just glanced again and had it running through the gulf into northern Florida then out to sea. This probably should go in the banter thread, but who wants to take a bet that accuweathers first graphic for this storm has the snow axis through Kentucky/Ohio Valley into the midatlantic and northeast??? Any takers?? You also have to remember, The Euro is much colder from its 12z run. So for western NC and E Tenn, We are into some good rates with temps well below freezing. Even at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i don't want the storm to move to quick either so snow totals would be better, like a slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You also have to remember, The Euro is much colder from its 12z run. So for western NC and E Tenn, We are into some good rates with temps well below freezing. Even at the surface. Yeah, I was surprised at the Euro data to be honest (for KTRI). Thought it would be a little less than TYS, but hey.......not going to complain. Ratios looked really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow, I'm liking this turnaround. Is the GGEM the only model still showing a well inland track? Either way good to see our "king" come on board. The Euro at face value would be backside flurries for ATL with sig. snow not too far north of the city looking at how close temps are, but the trend is certainly our friend at this point. FFC even looks to be on the ball (though their forecast high of 44 on Thursday for MBY doesn't quite make sense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think the storm track is what needs to get nailed down at this point. I animated the 0z at 6hr increments. This storm is basically swinging through the front side of a trough (the trough is moving from east to west), and then the slp pulls up the east side of the trough. The trough then pulls out after the storm. It is an incredible looking set-up. If that set-up occurs(and depending on the sharpness of the trough), that storm is going to wind itself up. I noticed Raleigh mentioned the ensembles look flat. That very well could happen. All scenarios are on the table. However, the suppressed pattern of December to mid-January has passed. If this is suppressed, it will be for different reasons in that the trough just gets pushed to far east(and may be broader) and pushes the storm OTS. In early-mid winter the winterstorms were pushed south by a -AO and -NAO pattern that was almost too much of a good thing for folks in Kentucky and northern TN. I do think this makes a turn inside the coast. "Where?" is the question. It also fits the idea that a strong storm will end the troughy pattern over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Does anyone remember this current storm having the low running from southeastern MO, through southern IL and northern KY???? I don't remember it being that far north! I am sure someone that was paying more attention can tell me, but seems like a couple of days ago it had that low in western/central TN through southeast KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think the storm track is what needs to get nailed down at this point. I animated the 0z at 6hr increments. This storm is basically swinging through the front side of a trough (the trough is moving from east to west), and then the slp pulls up the east side of the trough. The trough then pulls out after the storm. It is an incredible looking set-up. If that set-up occurs(and depending on the sharpness of the trough), that storm is going to wind itself up. I noticed Raleigh mentioned the ensembles look flat. That very well could happen. All scenarios are on the table. However, the suppressed pattern of December to mid-January has passed. If this is suppressed, it will be for different reasons in that the trough just gets pushed to far east(and may be broader) and pushes the storm OTS. In early-mid winter the winterstorms were pushed south by a -AO and -NAO pattern that was almost too much of a good thing for folks in Kentucky and northern TN. I do think this makes a turn up the coast. "Where" is the question. It also fits the idea that a strong storm will end the troughy pattern over the East. I think the trough in the east comes back toward the end of Feb and early March. I am of the thinking that this won't be Tennessee's last brush with winter weather. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if there isn't another BIG storm somewhere in the east next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow, I'm liking this turnaround. Is the GGEM the only model still showing a well inland track? Either way good to see our "king" come on board. The Euro at face value would be backside flurries for ATL with sig. snow not too far north of the city looking at how close temps are, but the trend is certainly our friend at this point. FFC even looks to be on the ball (though their forecast high of 44 on Thursday for MBY doesn't quite make sense). They always trend toward climo if possible this far out (even though 44 is 10 degrees or so cooler than climo), they'll come around. That's the hint they see it coming too, they just gradually break us in to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow, I'm liking this turnaround. Is the GGEM the only model still showing a well inland track? Either way good to see our "king" come on board. The Euro at face value would be backside flurries for ATL with sig. snow not too far north of the city looking at how close temps are, but the trend is certainly our friend at this point. FFC even looks to be on the ball (though their forecast high of 44 on Thursday for MBY doesn't quite make sense). Yeah I too was surprised when I saw just how close King Euro was to giving me a major snow. Just a tad to warm for ATL but the northern burbs might be snow. Anyways good to see it trend southeast at 0z and I hope it moves a tad south at 12z. For sure the potential is there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think the trough in the east comes back toward the end of Feb and early March. I am of the thinking that this won't be Tennessee's last brush with winter weather. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if there isn't another BIG storm somewhere in the east next month Right. I would tend to agree w/ that. I'm not implying winter is over quite yet (though we will lose some good climo for sure), just that the PNA ridge pattern is ending. I told my wife I expect to see at least one good opportunity from late February to early March. The NAO looks to dip a bit at the end of CPC's ensemble mean today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 One thing I really like about this storm is that the s/w coming down is all alone. Nothing north or behind it to screw things up so to speak and worry about interactions with other things. Kinda like the Jan 10 storm. I would think by Monday the models will have a good idea of the track and amount of cold air in place. So we won't have to rely on ULL placement and dynamic cooling and all that to get our snowstorm which will be very nice. Still early and all heck could still break loose but im catiously optimistic this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just read a little bit from the Big Dog, He says this is tricky and depends on how quick the sw comes out? But he thinks it will come out in time for a major phasing idea Wednesday and Thursday with the monster traveling from New Orleans to Norfolk to Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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