February 8-12 model discussion

[Rankin5150]

7-9 days out is always a tough period for models to forecast, that is just how it is.

What you have to look at is not model output verbatim, but the overall pattern the model is showing. The models are certainly not showing a perfect pattern for a southeast snowstorm, but it isnt like just one model and one run showed a storm. The GFS and ECMWF are both showing wintry threats in the day 6-9 range, but are different with how they handle a s/w diving down the backside of the trough. The GFS is much quicker and the ECMWF much slower, but with the arctic front cleared of the region either way it would be snow. The Canadian is not too different than the Euro at hour 168 but it seems to split the energy a bit and keys more on the lead wave and is close to wintry weather but the wave is too far north.

The bottom line is that if you put all your faith in one model solution than yeah you are going to be disappointed. But if you recognize the pattern and a model simulted storm makes sense given the pattern, and the solution hold for several runs in a row and other models start to agree then you get excited. I have been following things long enough to know when and when not to get excited. My interest is piqued, but I am not staying up for model runs quite yet lol.

Great points RW! I am saying to myself that I will not stay up either. Although, I will be sneaking a peek tonight around 1:30ish am....

[rduwx]

7-9 days out is always a tough period for models to forecast, that is just how it is.

What you have to look at is not model output verbatim, but the overall pattern the model is showing. The models are certainly not showing a perfect pattern for a southeast snowstorm, but it isnt like just one model and one run showed a storm. The GFS and ECMWF are both showing wintry threats in the day 6-9 range, but are different with how they handle a s/w diving down the backside of the trough. The GFS is much quicker and the ECMWF much slower, but with the arctic front cleared of the region either way it would be snow. The Canadian is not too different than the Euro at hour 168 but it seems to split the energy a bit and keys more on the lead wave and is close to wintry weather but the wave is too far north.

The bottom line is that if you put all your faith in one model solution than yeah you are going to be disappointed. But if you recognize the pattern and a model simulted storm makes sense given the pattern, and the solution hold for several runs in a row and other models start to agree then you get excited. I have been following things long enough to know when and when not to get excited. My interest is piqued, but I am not staying up for model runs quite yet lol.

Thanks Allan for the input!

I'll say I would like to have some of what the euro is cooking though. Right now I'm just nibbling a little bit but if it continues to show this for a few runs, I'm sitting at the table and strapping on the feed bag!

[RaleighWx]

Euro Ensembles have some members showing support to the operational run, i would say the majority do not dig the s/w as far south and west as the op run do and therefore are probably more like the GFS.

[BullCityWx]

I'm pretty excited by the Euro maps, we'd have crazy good ratios.

[burgertime]

I'm pretty excited by the Euro maps, we'd have crazy good ratios.

Yep total Christmas redux! Given the NW trends if it played out the way the Euro says it would work even more in our favor.

[jrips27]

Nice to see the possibility here on the models. I think over the next few days we need to just watch the pattern and not worry over specifics.

[Lookout]

Folks,

Taken literally, the 12Z Euro has what hasn't happened since 2/1895, a 2nd major snow (3.5"+), via 0.45" qpf, for KATL in one season. Could we finally break that streak? Well, we just had the first major KATL snow in a moderate to strong La Nina since 2/1894. So, why not?

The thing is most locations in north georgia have already had 2 3.5" or greater snows. I wish when people talk about atlanta statistics or what happened in atlanta, there should always be an asterisk or mention with regards to what the rest of north ga experienced because too often the rest of north ga has different results/totals. For example, in both instances this year, atlanta somehow managed to get less than everywhere else. I don't know how it happens but it often does.

It just bugs me because too often people only mention atlanta and it gives the impression that atlanta represents what happened in most locations when that simply isn't the case. I just wish the rest of the northern part of the state gets recognized whenever people bring up atlanta..and only atlanta.

That said, don't take this the wrong way because your statistics have always been awesome and interesting to me and everyone.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Someone on the Mid Atlantic/NE thread on Accuweather mentioned the model runs today have the trough similar to the Great 1899 blizzard. Not saying this will happen, just thought it was interesting how similar the setup is almost, and all these Arctic air masses dropping down from Canada.

The “Great Cold Wave of February 1899” is the most significant cold air outbreak which affected Tallahassee. The image above visualizes the conditions which produced the most significant storm to move through Tallahassee. The storm first started developing on February 4th because an arctic airmass went south due to a storm in the Pacific off of the Oregon Coast (20). At the start of the second week in February, a colder airmass from the Canadian plains with a pressure of 1045 mb moved south (20). Then on February 10th, an even colder airmass moved southward with a central pressure of 1055 mb (20). On the night of February 13, a drop in pressure to 984 mb over the Gulf Coast caused a bomb cyclone that moved from Florida up the east coast, which is seen in the above image with the low pressure system moving north (20). On February 13, 1899 Tallahassee reached and set its record low temperature, which stands today at -2 degrees Fahrenheit (20). The storm ended on February 15th as the arctic air left Florida (20). This storm significantly affected agricultural businesses as they realized heavy damage to fruit trees and crops (20). Transportation across the country, including transportation coming in and out of Tallahassee, was adversely affected because of shortages in fuel, snow-ridden trains, and ports blocked by ice (20). This cold wave still is recognized as the most severe cold wave affecting Tallahassee.

The event started out on February 11 as a severe cold wave in which every part of the East Coast from Georgia to Maine received sub-zero Fahrenheit temperatures. The following state record low temperatures for February were achieved:

Atlanta, Georgia: −9 °F (−23 °C) (coldest ever in Atlanta history since at least 1874)

Tallahassee, Florida: −2 °F (−19 °C) (only recorded instance of a sub-zero Fahrenheit temperature in Florida)

Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States. High Point, North Carolina recorded 10-12" (25-30 cm) of snow, and temperatures as low as 10 °F (−12 °C) on the 11th, 5 °F (−15 °C) on the 13th, and 3 °F (−16 °C) on the 14th. It was said to be the coldest weather known to the oldest inhabitants. Washington, D.C. recorded its all-time record single snowfall of 20.5 inches (52 cm), though it was later broken. Cape May, New Jersey recorded 34 inches (86 cm), which is the highest single storm snowfall total ever in New Jersey, in what is normally the least-snowy part of the state.

The port of New Orleans was completely iced over by February 13, with ice floes reportedly floating out of the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico. On February 14 the city experienced its coldest ever Mardi Gras reading of 22°F. The Krewe of Rex Parade was delayed while snow was removed from the route.[1]

Also on February 14, the low temperature in Miami was 29 °F (−2 °C), the second-coldest (and the first sub-freezing) temperature that the city has ever recorded.

North of the Mid-Atlantic region, the storm weakened somewhat, but it was still a very powerful blizzard. New York's Central Park recorded 16 inches (41 cm), which at the time was its third-biggest snowfall, but many surrounding areas recorded 2-3 feet (60 to 90 cm), as did most of New England.

There are even Cuban reports (made by the U.S. Weather Bureau, as Cuba was a U.S. territory at the time) that the country experienced hard frost which killed or damaged many crops. This was despite the cold air first having to cross the Florida Strait and its warm Gulf Stream waters. The blizzard of 1899 is referred to as "The Snow King".

Again not saying this will happen by any means such a storm is as rare as 1993 storm, just thought the similarities are somewhat similar with what the models are putting out in regards to the Arctic air masses diving into the Central/Southern US, and polar-jet diving down towards the Gulf Coast.

http://en.wikipedia....lizzard_of_1899

http://uisevereweath...728/Tallahassee

[GaWx]

The thing is most locations in north georgia have already had 2 3.5" or greater snows. I wish when people talk about atlanta statistics or what happened in atlanta, there should always be an asterisk or mention with regards to what the rest of north ga experienced because too often the rest of north ga has different results/totals. For example, in both instances this year, atlanta somehow managed to get less than everywhere else. I don't know how it happens but it often does.

It just bugs me because too often people only mention atlanta and it gives the impression that atlanta represents what happened in most locations when that simply isn't the case. I just wish the rest of the northern part of the state gets recognized whenever people bring up atlanta..and only atlanta.

That said, don't take this the wrong way because your statistics have always been awesome and interesting to me and everyone.

Thanks Lookout!

I understand your concern. Many other locations, especially north of KATL, have very likely had several years since 1895 with two 3.5"+ S/IP's. However, KATL is all I have as far as comprehensive/detailed stats for N GA. To clarify, I'm only talking about if Hartsfield were to get 3.5"+ that it would be a first since 2/1895 (when there was a 4" and a 6" a mere four days apart 2/11-12 and 2/15-16) for the official ATL reporting station.

[Tacoma]

don't we need a negative tilted trough in stead of a positive tilted trough, next week looks like a positive tilted trough. doesn't it need to be negative so it can spin up a storm?

[griteater]

FWIW, JMA digs a big trough into the SW and tracks the sfc low from Texas to Maryland - too warm.

[Tacoma]

foothills don't we need a negative tilted trough to spin up a storm. next week looks positive tilted.

Interesting pattern and has been showing up afew days now. We're at the climo time of year for systems to take their lowest possible patth south, even without a block, all we need is the PNA to be tall, something that still really hasn't happened much if any yet. There's another threat of systems topping the ridge out west and if the flow is supressed with next weeks storm bombing off eastern Canada that will help us tremendously to keep it south from cutting too far north. Just possibilities for now.

[griteater]

don't we need a negative tilted trough in stead of a positive tilted trough, next week looks like a positive tilted trough. doesn't it need to be negative so it can spin up a storm?

We wouldn't want it going negative until it's right over us....if it goes negative to the west of us, it would be too warm with storm track too far north

[burgertime]

18z GFS says, "lol wut storm?".

[Tacoma]

don't think jma model can be trusted when other models are showing a storm for next week hugging the gulf coast. there will be arctic air in place question this time is the storm going to materialize.

FWIW, JMA digs a big trough into the SW and tracks the sfc low from Texas to Maryland - too warm.

[phil882]

18z GFS says, "lol wut storm?".

well wait until the rest of the run is finished, there is a bit of energy dropping down after the first impulse.

[burgertime]

well wait until the rest of the run is finished, there is a bit of energy dropping down after the first impulse.

I refuse to look at this scientifically!

Haha yea it looks like it's trying to get something going now at 168...sorta close to the Euro at that time frame? Hard to tell but hopefully it doesn't hold that energy back too long.

[griteater]

don't think jma model can be trusted when other models are showing a storm for next week hugging the gulf coast. there will be arctic air in place question this time is the storm going to materialize.

I'm going to hold you to that one

[burgertime]

The 18z is suppression city and it fizzles out the clipper that was heading for us. On to the 00z.

[Tacoma]

sounds like the cold comes in next tuesday ahead of any storms then the storm spins up according to the GFS AND ECMWF so with the cold air already in place as long as we can get a storm to pop and the EURO says it should pop next week, we'll see.

When we see Raliegh, Cheez and Foothills chiming in, then the mojo is coming back. This will change a ga-zillion times, but at least we have some chess pieces in place.

[griteater]

The 18z is suppression city and it fizzles out the clipper that was heading for us. On to the 00z.

I'll take that a million times over at this stage of the game

[MillzPirate]

suppression on the GFS = a storm is going to come

[ATL_Militarypolice]

I'll take that a million times over at this stage of the game

Exactly I'll much rather the storm go to Cuba at this point in time, than be in the "sweet spot."

[WeatherNC]

The 18z is suppression city and it fizzles out the clipper that was heading for us. On to the 00z.

Likely going to be on to the 0z 2/7 before we know whether this is legit or not, excluding a Lakes cutter, which is usually modeled accurately in the 5 day range. Even with this 18z run Burger, you can see the long wave trough in question, what energy gets ingested into that is anybodies guess, but the run still does have the general pattern, which would argue for suppression and at this range, that fact is a great thing. I am not on board, how can you be at this range, but the potential is certainly there with a stacked PV in residence to our north, and an amplified lobe coming down this way.

suppression on the GFS = a storm is going to come

Classic Millz!!! Now if we can just get the NOGAPS and UKMET on board we may be on to something.

[BullCityWx]

Just some damn impressive cold this run...raw data shows a 2M temperature of 14º at KHKY next Friday at 18z.

[BullCityWx]

....and a 2M Temperature of 7º at Nashville next Thursday at 18z.

[dsaur]

Thanks Lookout!

I understand your concern. Many other locations, especially north of KATL, have very likely had several years since 1895 with two 3.5"+ S/IP's. However, KATL is all I have as far as comprehensive/detailed stats for N GA. To clarify, I'm only talking about if Hartsfield were to get 3.5"+ that it would be a first since 2/1895 (when there was a 4" and a 6" a mere four days apart 2/11-12 and 2/15-16) for the official ATL reporting station.

Too Lookout's question....after the ULL March snow of two years ago, I saw a depth plot of Ga. put out by FFC. Where are those spotter maps kept? I see them all the time for N.C. Heck, they can trot out a depth map for every county for every storm going way back. Where are Georgia's? And where are all the spotter maps from way back? How come only the airport data seems available? Aren't spotter plots deemed useful? T

[pcbjr]

Just some damn impressive cold this run...raw data shows a 2M temperature of 14º at KHKY next Friday at 18z.

Hell, it has me down to 19º.

[GaWx]

Too Lookout's question....after the ULL March snow of two years ago, I saw a depth plot of Ga. put out by FFC. Where are those spotter maps kept? I see them all the time for N.C. Heck, they can trot out a depth map for every county for every storm going way back. Where are Georgia's? And where are all the spotter maps from way back? How come only the airport data seems available? Aren't spotter plots deemed useful? T

Tony, good Q's but I don't have the answers.

[WeatherNC]

Too Lookout's question....after the ULL March snow of two years ago, I saw a depth plot of Ga. put out by FFC. Where are those spotter maps kept? I see them all the time for N.C. Heck, they can trot out a depth map for every county for every storm going way back. Where are Georgia's? And where are all the spotter maps from way back? How come only the airport data seems available? Aren't spotter plots deemed useful? T

The SN event maps up here are put out by RAH (for the entire state), in coordination with NC State, which archives the images. This is an invaluable service when comparing past impact graphics, and if you look at the RAH "past events" page, you can see a exponential uptick compared to the 80's in events they are producing a graphic for. This year, and in recent, almost every winter wx event in NC they make a map for. They have taken the lead here in NC, which makes sense given there resources and academia on board, and I would encourage those in other states to take the issue up with the lead WFO in the state to do the same.

12z ECMWF ens mean is catching on to something @ 198, as Allan mentioned a couple of the members were on board. 1016mb low well off the SE coast, which is somewhat impressive given the number of members and t-step.

and the overall NH pattern