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February 8-12 model discussion


Rankin5150

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Pretty much a blockbuster event on the 00z Euro for most of the North South Carolina, Most of North Carolina and East Tennessee. The only thing that bugs me right now, is that its still very close in locations like GSP/CLT/and RDU so any trend north would likely mean more liquid precip. However, considering the trend the last day or so, things are heading in the right direction.

P.S. This run finally made me give in and do the Accuweather Pro trial... very impressed so far with the ECWMF suite.

I used to be an Accuweather Pro member, but I got tired of JB's blog posts and his wanton quoting of The Boss.

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Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but it is not a requirement to read his blogs.tongue.gif

Of course not - but I just didn't need it as much anymore. I'm trying to be less modelworshipping than I used to be. Sure, it's nice watching things unfold, but I can't change the weather personally and whatever will happen will happen so I might as well enjoy it.

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Not sure if you were aware of this or not, but it is not a requirement to read his blogs.tongue.gif

Haha yep... I'm just trying the trial out to see some of the ECWMF output, which is nice to have in 6 hour increments!

Honestly while its a great ECWMF run, it is still 120-144 hours out... which means major chances could still occur. Being the bullseye this far out honestly doesn't mean a whole lot. Its nice to have the basic pattern though weight_lift.gif

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Haha yep... I'm just trying the trial out to see some of the ECWMF output, which is nice to have in 6 hour increments!

Honestly while its a great ECWMF run, it is still 120-144 hours out... which means major chances could still occur. Being the bullseye this far out honestly doesn't mean a whole lot. Its nice to have the basic pattern though weight_lift.gif

I'd rather see this run 48-72 hours out...haha :thumbsup: Insane though...how awesome would it be to see another event closely resemble the QPF totals from Jan 25, 2000? I think what's holding everyone's attention is not the tracks displayed by the models, but the constant cold that is being shown...if we had all the models showing borderline temps for much of the SE like it was on the previous storm, then we'd be half as excited.

Raleigh is always borderline, we know that. But people sitting well west of RDU, N SC, N GA, E TN, etc all look good. We don't have to hope the storm comes sooner for our cold to stay this time. 96hrs-192hrs is cold enough per this run as far as 850's go. Plenty of time for this storm to come whenever it wants, no?

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A quick look at euro ens before i head back to bed show a more supressed further southeast track than the operational run. Looks like snow for more than the op run.

Thanks Allan, from all 11 of us viewing this thread haha. The rest of the users will have something to wake up to tomorrow morning! Can't wait to see what the 12z says, as well as the rest of the global models.

Seeing runs like these make it very difficult not to get excited when you know you shouldn't. You know you're a weenie when... :snowing:

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Wow 1.58 inches all snow in RDU on the Euro and it is 0 degrees on Friday morning at 12z. Impressive

Looking at the text output, I am confused how it is all snow. I would think with 2.7C 850s at the beginning that it would probably start as sleet or freezing rain. Then again, the Euro may not be taking into account wet bulbing or maybe I'm just reading it wrong. :D

Regardless, I'd like to cash in with the Euro right now! scooter.gif

Thanks Allan, from all 11 of us viewing this thread haha. The difficult not to get excited when you know you shouldn't. You know you're a weenie when... :snowing:

LOL, we wouldn't be posting on these forums if we didn't get excited about model runs 120+ hours out! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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Looking at the text output, I am confused how it is all snow. I would think with 2.7C 850s at the beginning that it would probably start as sleet or freezing rain. Then again, the Euro may not be taking into account wet bulbing or maybe I'm just reading it wrong. :D

I believe you got the 850 and the surface temp columns backwards. Surface was 2.7 at the start but the 850 was like -0.5.

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I'd rather not have the stronger trend start right now... we are still a good 5 days out, and even at this point, we have seen plenty of systems go from what looked like a major winter storm to a much further inland solution. If the gfs can remained at least somewhat suppressed I'll feel a lot better.

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I'd rather not have the stronger trend start right now... we are still a good 5 days out, and even at this point, we have seen plenty of systems go from what looked like a major winter storm to a much further inland solution. If the gfs can remained at least somewhat suppressed I'll feel a lot better.

Agree.........but with the mean from the individual members of the Euro being south of the OP, I feel a little less concerned. at least we have some wiggle room per the Euro. This might be the storm we have been waiting on folks. This week will be fun to watch.

GSP is drinking the GFS Kool-aid right now, and I can understand the conservative approach. Still have snow in our forecast, but they are implying a non-event in the discussion.

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I'd rather not have the stronger trend start right now... we are still a good 5 days out, and even at this point, we have seen plenty of systems go from what looked like a major winter storm to a much further inland solution. If the gfs can remained at least somewhat suppressed I'll feel a lot better.

Well, the 6z GFS ensemble mean is way suppressed and OTS if it makes you feel better.

06zgfsensemblep72156.gif

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I'd rather not have the stronger trend start right now... we are still a good 5 days out, and even at this point, we have seen plenty of systems go from what looked like a major winter storm to a much further inland solution. If the gfs can remained at least somewhat suppressed I'll feel a lot better.

I agree, always like to have a more supressed look on the GFS for sure, and really all models. This time we have a lot of separation in the flow, so I don't think phasing will occur and pull it too far north , but there's always room for a northerly jog. Also, don't know if anyone's mentioned the damming and very dry air going on east of the Apps esp. in the Carolinas. Someone not getting snow will get the ice or mix.

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Thanks Allan, from all 11 of us viewing this thread haha. The rest of the users will have something to wake up to tomorrow morning! Can't wait to see what the 12z says, as well as the rest of the global models.

Seeing runs like these make it very difficult not to get excited when you know you shouldn't. You know you're a weenie when... :snowing:

Amen! It was indeed something amazing to see before sunrise. Of course, I'm assuming since RDU is on the line, us Sandhills folks are looking forward to another cold bath. But it certainly gives us something to watch with baited breath.

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Well, I was skeptical for GA- but my interest is increasing. Still not totally convinced, but the Euro looks pretty good- maybe a tad warm for ATL, but if can be just a bit south....hmmmm

South would be a good thing for this area too..lol

I agree, always like to have a more supressed look on the GFS for sure, and really all models. This time we have a lot of separation in the flow, so I don't think phasing will occur and pull it too far north , but there's always room for a northerly jog. Also, don't know if anyone's mentioned the damming and very dry air going on east of the Apps esp. in the Carolinas. Someone not getting snow will get the ice or mix.

I'll be watching....btw...heard thunder twice this morning....hmmmmm :lol:

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Birmingham

TODAYS 00Z RUNS AND GFS 06Z RUN ARE SUGGESTING A CLOSER TREND

WITH SNOW THE MAIN PLAYER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE PEGGING SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING RIGHT ALONG

THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH

12Z THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THAT 32 DEGREE LINE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE

I-59 AND THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SELMA TO

LAFAYETTE BY 6Z. BY 12Z...THE WET BULB ZERO LINE MAY BE SOUTH OF THE

AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY A FORECAST THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED AND

WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR CENTRAL

ALABAMA AND POINTS NORTH.

Atlanta

NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND DEPENDING ON THE

TIMING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE IN FORECAST FOR MAINLY

N GA. EUROPEAN IS MORE ORGANIZED WITH MOVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS

CENTRAL TO S GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE CHANCE

OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR N GA WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS IF ALL

SNOW FALLS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING ON THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY A

COLD WINDY DAY IN STORE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL CONTINUE

FOR N GA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS

MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

Greenville

BY WED NIGHT...THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE WILL INSTIGATE CYCLOGENESIS

ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GOM. THIS LOW WILL BE THE ONE TO DEFINE THE

SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE CWFA THU AND FRI BASED ON VARIOUS TRACK

SCENARIOS. FOR NOW...WILL COUNT ON THE CONTINUITY DISPLAYED BY THE

GFS WITH THE COASTAL SOLN...AN IDEA THE ECMWF IS NOW LEANING TOWARD.

THIS WOULD PUT THE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIP...MOST

LIKELY SN NORTH AND A RA/SN MIX SOUTH. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DONT

INDICATE MUCH IF ANY OF A WARM NOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND

THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE BROAD H85 TROF AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF

THE SYSTEM.

Huntsville

A DEEP/BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL

CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW A VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLING IN

CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CONUS. MED RANGE

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SFC LOW

DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT

WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPR TROUGH. WITH THE POLAR AIRMASS

MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY BEFORE THE DEVELOPING LOW...CONDITIONS LOOK

TO BE SET FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FOR THE TN VALLEY. AT THIS

TIME...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT...WITH THE

POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ONSET. THUS...WILL HOLD ON TO A MENTION OF

A -RA/-SN MIX ON WED AFTERNOON...BUT SNOW MAY BE FAVORED. HAVE

INCREASED POPS TO 50 FOR WED NIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULD LIKE TO

SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SOME DETAILS BEFORE COMMITTING

TO LIKELY. IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO DETAIL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT

THIS OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SNOW SCENARIO FOR THE AREA

GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND UPR LOW AND THE VERTICAL TEMP

STRUCTURE.

AFTERWARD...A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE

AREA. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH WARMER THAN

RECENT RUNS WITH THE INTENSITY OF THIS COLD AIRMASS.

NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR A SNOW PACK AND AN ARCTIC HIGH

MOVING OVHD ON FRI AND SAT MORNING...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS APPEAR

POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY. IN FACT...LOWS BELOW ZERO APPEAR POSSIBLE IN

OUR NORMAL COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE IN

THE FCST JUST YET.

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From RDU last night:

WED-FRI: FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...AS

THE SPREAD IN MEDIUM RANGE NWP GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED FROM 24 HOURS

AGO...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A MORE EASTWARD CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN IN

CLOSER PROXIMITY TO OR JUST OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE

INCREASING MODEL SPREAD IS A FUNCTION OF A PROJECTED MORE DOMINANT

POLAR VORTEX CENTERED NEAR THE HUDSON STRAIT DURING THE MIDDLE OF

THE WEEK AND THE INTERACTION OF AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC JET WITH SPLIT

FLOW POLAR JETS. SPECIFICALLY...THE PROJECTED MORE DOMINANT POLAR

VORTEX INTRODUCES BOTH STRONGER CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST

AND AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF UPSTREAM FLOW INTERACTION/PHASING...

THE FORMER OF WHICH WOULD YIELD BOTH A LONGER AND STRONGER COLD HIGH

TO OUR NORTH AND MORE SUPPRESSED...OFFSHORE AND WINTRY FOR NC/VA

SURFACE LOW TRACK UNDERNEATH. WILL CONTINUE TO WORD AS RAIN OR

SNOW OVER THE PIEDMONT...WITH ALL RAIN (EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A BRIEF

ONSET OF SNOW) INVOF FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AND POINTS

SOUTHEASTWARD WED NIGHT-THU...GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

DRY...ARCTIC COLD WILL RETURN BY THU NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE

WEEK...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING ONLY INTO THE 30S...IF THAT.

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