rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro out to 126...looks like a 1008 mb low at the Ala/Fl coast line...snowing in northern half of Ala/La, all of Tn, N. Ga. and W. NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z Euro from the earthlight... 132 hrs has a sub 1004mb low in GA...looks S and E of it's 12z run but a gorgeous signal. Nice snowstorm for the Southern M/A through 132 138 hours 1000mb over HSE maybe a hair east. Huge hit for NC/Eastern VA up to OC MD ...moderate hit to DC through DE and Southern NJ. Moderate snow falling at that time to about PHL. Signal is beaming if you ask me..awesome. at 138 hrs. there is a sub 1000 mb low near Hatteras. Moderate precip to north of Atlantic City. 850 line to DelMarva. Heading out to sea at 144 hrs. Oh well. 144 hours it slips just East of the BM and never gets too far north. But honestly...everybody is 50-100 miles from missing a gigantic CCB with huge QPF. Cool run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro really ramping up between 120-132HR. Snowing in northern AL/GA and TN getting a good lick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 at 132 looks like heavier snow in N. Ga/ W. NC...a heavier band is going from CLT to RDU but of coarse we are right on the 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Text product coming in, RDU gets crushed before 12z Thurs... Edit: Wow! Over 1' for RDU verbatim THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.4 -0.9 1012 97 100 0.63 553 544 THU 18Z 10-FEB -2.3 -7.0 1011 84 91 0.83 545 537 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -7.9 -9.3 1019 82 60 0.11 545 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 at 138 this thing explodes and is further east right off the NC coast....RDU to probablly WeatherNC is getting pounded w/ heavy snow...CLT getting some decent snow at this time also...looks like NW SC is getting in on the action also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 "What the sun was doing for the simultaneous superstorms end Jan – start Feb & WHAT NEXT for world weather? Piers Corbyn warns of three world top red warning notably dangerous weather periods – around Feb 10-12, 14-15, & 27-28" I have been following Piers Corbyn this winter and he really knows his stuff. He has predicted all of the major storms from weeks out all based on solar activity. He is also a strong anti-global warming person. I like that Feb. 10th date he listed.... This isn't the thread for it but weather is not climate. He holds no degree in climate science, so he shouldn't be a resource for climate science. Funny how all he does is appear on talk shows or write blogs, instead of actually publishing a climate related study subject to peer-review. Also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn#Reliability_of_forecasts_in_2007 He doesn't seem to be that accurate. It seems like this is just a case of the old adage about a broken clock being right twice a day. Those predictions aren't very specific, and are about as general as a horoscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 pulling OTS at 144 and brushes the MA....what a run this was! My pbp sucks but it gives you an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What did it have in store for places like the ATL, CAE, etc....pretty good for the SE as a whole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 at 138 this thing explodes and is further east right off the NC coast....RDU to probablly WeatherNC is getting pounded w/ heavy snow...CLT getting some decent snow at this time also...looks like NW SC is getting in on the action also. Historic storm for the triangle if this verified, but given the step likely not, although this is the one operational model you want on your side at this range, even if we see a trend towards the less extreme going foreword. Hard to tell, but this around about 18" for RDU. Get your ready folks, we have yet another storm to track. Give me a sec, I will pull the text product for select cities, PGV, RDU, GSO, CLT, CAE, GSP, and ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Woke up to look at the euro and it gives me a foot of snow. Reckon I must be dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 pulling OTS at 144 and brushes the MA....what a run this was! My pbp sucks but it gives you an idea. Hey!!! Your pbp is great!!! You got my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Euro really ramping up between 120-132HR. Snowing in northern AL/GA and TN getting a good lick! I'd love to know what the QPFs and sfc temps are for TYS but I don't have access to it. Getting the GFS Buffkit is about the best I can manage. If Western NC gets hammered, it doesn't mean that East TN will get hammered since it has to cross a spine of 6000 ft mountains to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Historic storm for the triangle if this verified, but given the step likely not, although this is the one operational model you want on your side at this range, even if we see a trend towards the less extreme going foreword. Hard to tell, but this around about 18" for RDU. Get your ready folks, we have yet another storm to track. Give me a sec, I will pull the text product for select cities, PGV, RDU, GSO, CLT, CAE, GSP, and ATL. I agree, I'm keeping my excitement in check but like you said it is nice having the euro on your side. I really don't like being in the bullseye 5-6 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Historic storm for the triangle if this verified, but given the step likely not, although this is the one operational model you want on your side at this range, even if we see a trend towards the less extreme going foreword. Hard to tell, but this around about 18" for RDU. Get your ready folks, we have yet another storm to track. Give me a sec, I will pull the text product for select cities, PGV, RDU, GSO, CLT, CAE, GSP, and ATL. Thank you WeatherNC!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 .47 QPF for TYS, all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hey!!! Your pbp is great!!! You got my attention. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Its obvious that the Euro has made a substantial change in regards to the northern stream features in order to allow many folks in the SE to have snow. It has strengthened the leaving s/w, which causes the PV to give way and bend slightly further southward. We are not out of the woods yet, but these last few runs have been encouraging signs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 .47 QPF for TYS, all snow Thanks maryville, I was trying to add the qpf but the maps I have are tough to get qpf off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 yeah, it just drops 1.19" of precip and has me below zero on friday morning. just your every day euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well, thank you for getting my hopes up, Euro. Now verify, damn it! I've never seen a foot of snow actually fall (FML for sleeping through 1/25/00 back in GSO, but I was 8 then)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Text for the stations I mentioned. Look at the legend in the top of the header to determine the field, if you have a question related to how to interpret it, ask quick as I am going to bed. Sorry guys, but I am too tired to field questions outside of that regarding this run. PGV 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 00Z 10-FEB 3.3 -1.6 1023 55 41 0.00 562 543 THU 06Z 10-FEB 3.9 1.0 1017 62 70 0.00 560 546 THU 12Z 10-FEB 1.4 2.0 1012 97 99 0.47 556 546 THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.3 -0.4 1006 91 74 1.02 550 546 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -5.4 -6.7 1017 79 71 0.11 547 534 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -10.2 -8.0 1023 79 3 0.00 551 533 RDU WED 18Z 09-FEB 4.8 -3.4 1026 34 50 0.00 560 539 THU 00Z 10-FEB 0.6 -2.6 1022 66 41 0.00 560 542 THU 06Z 10-FEB 2.7 -0.5 1018 65 86 0.01 557 543 THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.4 -0.9 1012 97 100 0.63 553 544 THU 18Z 10-FEB -2.3 -7.0 1011 84 91 0.83 545 537 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -7.9 -9.3 1019 82 60 0.11 545 530 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -12.7 -9.7 1024 85 3 0.00 549 531 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -16.9 -7.2 1028 83 5 0.00 550 529 GSO THU 00Z 10-FEB -0.1 -3.5 1021 67 41 0.00 558 541 THU 06Z 10-FEB 1.8 -2.6 1018 69 95 0.01 555 541 THU 12Z 10-FEB -0.7 -2.4 1013 95 100 0.66 551 541 THU 18Z 10-FEB -3.2 -8.8 1014 84 86 0.45 542 531 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -7.2 -12.0 1019 86 43 0.08 544 529 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -14.1 -10.0 1025 84 4 0.00 548 529 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -19.4 -7.8 1028 81 6 0.00 549 528 CLT THU 00Z 10-FEB 3.2 -2.5 1021 64 66 0.00 560 544 THU 06Z 10-FEB 2.4 -0.5 1017 87 89 0.09 557 544 THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.5 -0.9 1010 97 100 0.74 553 545 THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.0 -6.8 1013 84 92 0.32 544 534 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -5.2 -9.5 1019 81 33 0.04 548 533 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -12.1 -9.3 1025 80 3 0.00 551 532 GSP WED 18Z 09-FEB 6.2 -3.0 1025 41 48 0.00 562 542 THU 00Z 10-FEB 4.1 -2.7 1020 63 85 0.00 560 544 THU 06Z 10-FEB 2.0 -0.7 1016 92 99 0.12 557 545 THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.5 -0.6 1010 96 99 0.75 552 544 THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.2 -5.2 1014 78 99 0.15 543 533 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -5.1 -6.5 1019 75 13 0.01 550 534 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -13.0 -8.7 1025 84 4 0.00 552 532 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -16.4 -5.9 1028 75 5 0.00 552 530 CAE THU 00Z 10-FEB 7.3 -0.6 1020 69 92 0.00 565 549 THU 06Z 10-FEB 7.0 3.0 1014 82 68 0.05 562 551 THU 12Z 10-FEB 3.5 4.0 1007 97 100 0.85 558 553 THU 18Z 10-FEB 2.6 -2.5 1010 94 58 0.35 551 543 FRI 00Z 11-FEB 1.0 -6.2 1018 72 16 0.03 555 540 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -3.6 -7.0 1024 82 2 0.00 556 537 FRI 12Z 11-FEB -6.3 -4.5 1027 64 3 0.00 556 535 ATL WED 18Z 09-FEB 8.6 0.6 1023 41 64 0.00 565 546 THU 00Z 10-FEB 6.4 1.3 1017 62 95 0.00 563 549 THU 06Z 10-FEB 3.5 -0.4 1013 97 99 0.25 559 549 THU 12Z 10-FEB 1.6 0.1 1009 97 72 0.46 552 544 THU 18Z 10-FEB 2.5 -3.8 1016 62 41 0.05 550 538 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -1.9 -4.8 1020 63 2 0.00 555 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks for the text output from the Euro, Chris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 .47 QPF for TYS, all snow That's not too bad. Depending on the ratios that's probably 5-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks for the text output from the Euro, Chris! Welcome, if someone quotes it I will delete the post, please don't be the DA to quote this guys, it just adds unnecessary page count to the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow, 0.83 QPF when 850s are -7C and SFC is -2.3.... Ratios would be pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow, 0.83 QPF when 850s are -7C and SFC is -2.3.... Ratios would be pretty nice. Looks like some sleet/ZR to start off for us, then changing over to snow. Initially, I thought rain to snow, but surface temperatures start out below freezing, so I'd suspect that we either start out as sleet or freezing rain depending on how deep the lower-level cold is and with heavy precip rates, I suspect that we would transition over to a heavy wet snow within a few hours as 850s wet bulb, then crash later on with ratios getting higher as the cold air pours in overhead. Would probably be a foot of snow for us, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Given the active week shaping up, I am going to post the entire 7 day text for the stations I mentioned. Look at the legend in the top of the header to determine the field, if you have a question related to how to interpret it, ask quick as I am going to bed. Sorry guys, but I am too tired to field questions outside of that regarding this run. Thanks so much for the Text Data! Much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like it's too warm for Atlanta based on the Euro. Not much a good sign. I'll take the Euro QPF with the GFS's 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Pretty much a blockbuster event on the 00z Euro for most of the North South Carolina, Most of North Carolina and East Tennessee. The only thing that bugs me right now, is that its still very close in locations like GSP/CLT/and RDU so any trend north would likely mean more liquid precip. However, considering the trend the last day or so, things are heading in the right direction. P.S. This run finally made me give in and do the Accuweather Pro trial... very impressed so far with the ECWMF suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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