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February 8-12 model discussion


Rankin5150

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d5.gif

0z Euro from the earthlight...

132 hrs has a sub 1004mb low in GA...looks S and E of it's 12z run but a gorgeous signal. Nice snowstorm for the Southern M/A through 132

138 hours 1000mb over HSE maybe a hair east. Huge hit for NC/Eastern VA up to OC MD ...moderate hit to DC through DE and Southern NJ. Moderate snow falling at that time to about PHL.

Signal is beaming if you ask me..awesome.

at 138 hrs. there is a sub 1000 mb low near Hatteras. Moderate precip to north of Atlantic City. 850 line to DelMarva. Heading out to sea at 144 hrs. Oh well.

144 hours it slips just East of the BM and never gets too far north. But honestly...everybody is 50-100 miles from missing a gigantic CCB with huge QPF.

Cool run.

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"What the sun was doing for the simultaneous superstorms end Jan – start Feb & WHAT NEXT for world weather?

Piers Corbyn warns of three world top red warning notably dangerous weather periods –

around Feb 10-12, 14-15, & 27-28"

I have been following Piers Corbyn this winter and he really knows his stuff. He has predicted all of the major storms from weeks out all based on solar activity. He is also a strong anti-global warming person. I like that Feb. 10th date he listed....

This isn't the thread for it but weather is not climate. He holds no degree in climate science, so he shouldn't be a resource for climate science. Funny how all he does is appear on talk shows or write blogs, instead of actually publishing a climate related study subject to peer-review.

Also:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn#Reliability_of_forecasts_in_2007

He doesn't seem to be that accurate. It seems like this is just a case of the old adage about a broken clock being right twice a day. Those predictions aren't very specific, and are about as general as a horoscope.

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at 138 this thing explodes and is further east right off the NC coast....RDU to probablly WeatherNC is getting pounded w/ heavy snow...CLT getting some decent snow at this time also...looks like NW SC is getting in on the action also.

Historic storm for the triangle if this verified, but given the step likely not, although this is the one operational model you want on your side at this range, even if we see a trend towards the less extreme going foreword. Hard to tell, but this around about 18" for RDU. Get your :popcorn: ready folks, we have yet another storm to track.

Give me a sec, I will pull the text product for select cities, PGV, RDU, GSO, CLT, CAE, GSP, and ATL.

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Euro really ramping up between 120-132HR. Snowing in northern AL/GA and TN getting a good lick! :thumbsup:

I'd love to know what the QPFs and sfc temps are for TYS but I don't have access to it. Getting the GFS Buffkit is about the best I can manage.

If Western NC gets hammered, it doesn't mean that East TN will get hammered since it has to cross a spine of 6000 ft mountains to get here.

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Historic storm for the triangle if this verified, but given the step likely not, although this is the one operational model you want on your side at this range, even if we see a trend towards the less extreme going foreword. Hard to tell, but this around about 18" for RDU. Get your :popcorn: ready folks, we have yet another storm to track.

Give me a sec, I will pull the text product for select cities, PGV, RDU, GSO, CLT, CAE, GSP, and ATL.

I agree, I'm keeping my excitement in check but like you said it is nice having the euro on your side. I really don't like being in the bullseye 5-6 days out though.

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Historic storm for the triangle if this verified, but given the step likely not, although this is the one operational model you want on your side at this range, even if we see a trend towards the less extreme going foreword. Hard to tell, but this around about 18" for RDU. Get your :popcorn: ready folks, we have yet another storm to track.

Give me a sec, I will pull the text product for select cities, PGV, RDU, GSO, CLT, CAE, GSP, and ATL.

Thank you WeatherNC!! :popcorn:

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Its obvious that the Euro has made a substantial change in regards to the northern stream features in order to allow many folks in the SE to have snow. It has strengthened the leaving s/w, which causes the PV to give way and bend slightly further southward. We are not out of the woods yet, but these last few runs have been encouraging signs!

14scvav.gif

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Text for the stations I mentioned. Look at the legend in the top of the header to determine the field, if you have a question related to how to interpret it, ask quick as I am going to bed. Sorry guys, but I am too tired to field questions outside of that regarding this run.

PGV

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

THU 00Z 10-FEB 3.3 -1.6 1023 55 41 0.00 562 543

THU 06Z 10-FEB 3.9 1.0 1017 62 70 0.00 560 546

THU 12Z 10-FEB 1.4 2.0 1012 97 99 0.47 556 546

THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.3 -0.4 1006 91 74 1.02 550 546

FRI 00Z 11-FEB -5.4 -6.7 1017 79 71 0.11 547 534

FRI 06Z 11-FEB -10.2 -8.0 1023 79 3 0.00 551 533

RDU

WED 18Z 09-FEB 4.8 -3.4 1026 34 50 0.00 560 539

THU 00Z 10-FEB 0.6 -2.6 1022 66 41 0.00 560 542

THU 06Z 10-FEB 2.7 -0.5 1018 65 86 0.01 557 543

THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.4 -0.9 1012 97 100 0.63 553 544

THU 18Z 10-FEB -2.3 -7.0 1011 84 91 0.83 545 537

FRI 00Z 11-FEB -7.9 -9.3 1019 82 60 0.11 545 530

FRI 06Z 11-FEB -12.7 -9.7 1024 85 3 0.00 549 531

FRI 12Z 11-FEB -16.9 -7.2 1028 83 5 0.00 550 529

GSO

THU 00Z 10-FEB -0.1 -3.5 1021 67 41 0.00 558 541

THU 06Z 10-FEB 1.8 -2.6 1018 69 95 0.01 555 541

THU 12Z 10-FEB -0.7 -2.4 1013 95 100 0.66 551 541

THU 18Z 10-FEB -3.2 -8.8 1014 84 86 0.45 542 531

FRI 00Z 11-FEB -7.2 -12.0 1019 86 43 0.08 544 529

FRI 06Z 11-FEB -14.1 -10.0 1025 84 4 0.00 548 529

FRI 12Z 11-FEB -19.4 -7.8 1028 81 6 0.00 549 528

CLT

THU 00Z 10-FEB 3.2 -2.5 1021 64 66 0.00 560 544

THU 06Z 10-FEB 2.4 -0.5 1017 87 89 0.09 557 544

THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.5 -0.9 1010 97 100 0.74 553 545

THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.0 -6.8 1013 84 92 0.32 544 534

FRI 00Z 11-FEB -5.2 -9.5 1019 81 33 0.04 548 533

FRI 06Z 11-FEB -12.1 -9.3 1025 80 3 0.00 551 532

GSP

WED 18Z 09-FEB 6.2 -3.0 1025 41 48 0.00 562 542

THU 00Z 10-FEB 4.1 -2.7 1020 63 85 0.00 560 544

THU 06Z 10-FEB 2.0 -0.7 1016 92 99 0.12 557 545

THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.5 -0.6 1010 96 99 0.75 552 544

THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.2 -5.2 1014 78 99 0.15 543 533

FRI 00Z 11-FEB -5.1 -6.5 1019 75 13 0.01 550 534

FRI 06Z 11-FEB -13.0 -8.7 1025 84 4 0.00 552 532

FRI 12Z 11-FEB -16.4 -5.9 1028 75 5 0.00 552 530

CAE

THU 00Z 10-FEB 7.3 -0.6 1020 69 92 0.00 565 549

THU 06Z 10-FEB 7.0 3.0 1014 82 68 0.05 562 551

THU 12Z 10-FEB 3.5 4.0 1007 97 100 0.85 558 553

THU 18Z 10-FEB 2.6 -2.5 1010 94 58 0.35 551 543

FRI 00Z 11-FEB 1.0 -6.2 1018 72 16 0.03 555 540

FRI 06Z 11-FEB -3.6 -7.0 1024 82 2 0.00 556 537

FRI 12Z 11-FEB -6.3 -4.5 1027 64 3 0.00 556 535

ATL

WED 18Z 09-FEB 8.6 0.6 1023 41 64 0.00 565 546

THU 00Z 10-FEB 6.4 1.3 1017 62 95 0.00 563 549

THU 06Z 10-FEB 3.5 -0.4 1013 97 99 0.25 559 549

THU 12Z 10-FEB 1.6 0.1 1009 97 72 0.46 552 544

THU 18Z 10-FEB 2.5 -3.8 1016 62 41 0.05 550 538

FRI 00Z 11-FEB -1.9 -4.8 1020 63 2 0.00 555 539

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Wow, 0.83 QPF when 850s are -7C and SFC is -2.3.... Ratios would be pretty nice.

Looks like some sleet/ZR to start off for us, then changing over to snow. Initially, I thought rain to snow, but surface temperatures start out below freezing, so I'd suspect that we either start out as sleet or freezing rain depending on how deep the lower-level cold is and with heavy precip rates, I suspect that we would transition over to a heavy wet snow within a few hours as 850s wet bulb, then crash later on with ratios getting higher as the cold air pours in overhead.

Would probably be a foot of snow for us, at least. Snowman.gif

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Given the active week shaping up, I am going to post the entire 7 day text for the stations I mentioned. Look at the legend in the top of the header to determine the field, if you have a question related to how to interpret it, ask quick as I am going to bed. Sorry guys, but I am too tired to field questions outside of that regarding this run.

Thanks so much for the Text Data! Much appreciated!

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Pretty much a blockbuster event on the 00z Euro for most of the North South Carolina, Most of North Carolina and East Tennessee. The only thing that bugs me right now, is that its still very close in locations like GSP/CLT/and RDU so any trend north would likely mean more liquid precip. However, considering the trend the last day or so, things are heading in the right direction.

P.S. This run finally made me give in and do the Accuweather Pro trial... very impressed so far with the ECWMF suite.

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