rduwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah it really shears it out and tries to reform off the NC coast at 132....it's also looks to be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Another good run of the GFS. Major winter storm for the southeast per that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah it really shears it out and tries to reform off the NC coast at 132....it's also looks to be warmer. Yeah that bloody lakes low is the absolute last thing we need, just something else we would have to overcome. After looking at this some more, I would assume if the GFS had phased then that lakes low wouldn't be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z GFS at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Another good run of the GFS. Major winter storm for the southeast per that run. Are you saying it shows the potential to be a MECS or are you literally saying it's a MECS this run, because I just do not see it. Clue me in/explain your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the GFS is literally all over the place... I almost wish it was shut down until 2 days before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Are you saying it shows the potential to be a MECS or are you literally saying it's a MECS this run, because I just do not see it. Clue me in/explain your reasoning? I think they were referencing that this is a good trend based on where we stand right now. Euro might get a lock on this system, while GFS drifts further away from lala land. Eventually, GFS will come in terms and start agreeing by Sunday/Monday. At least, that's what I think they are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z GFS at the surface Seems like the GFS "sort-of" has a storm, but it gets strung out. It's done that quite a bit on the run up to big storms this year. This storm could be a fairly big storm IMO. Like Phil, I'm more concerned this thing cuts up west of the Apps...Somebody's gonna get smacked w/ this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Are you saying it shows the potential to be a MECS or are you literally saying it's a MECS this run, because I just do not see it. Clue me in/explain your reasoning? LOL.. Sorry, If you take the run verbatim it's nothing really. But if you know the GFS bias in this range to kill any and all 500 energy coming across the Gulf coast states you know what will happen later on when this bias is not in play. Check hours 120 and 126 at 500mb. The vort is killed. Now check the energy at 500 on the 12z Euro, CMC and Ukie. All much stronger and of course farther west with the surface low. When the GFS starts getting more amped at 500 like the other Globals then it will be farther north and west with it's surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The model has also been backing off of the extreme cold as of late as well. Of note, temps in the southern plains as of this hour are colder than most of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 LOL.. Sorry, If you take the run verbatim it's nothing really. But if you know the GFS bias in this range to kill any and all 500 energy coming across the Gulf coast states you know what will happen later on when this bias is not in play. Check hours 120 and 126 at 500mb. The vort is killed. Now check the energy at 500 on the 12z Euro, CMC and Ukie. All much stronger and of course farther west with the surface low. When the GFS starts getting more amped at 500 like the other Globals then it will be farther north and west with it's surface low. I figured that's what you were saying... "per this run" through me off, I thought you were looking at an old run or something Thanks for the explanation mentioning the other models, I've been busy this week so I'm just now checking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 00z NOGAPS looks beautiful. It's still a little too suppressed for my area, but it holds the energy intact more so than the GFS and generates a heavy precip shield that buries birmingham to atlanta to Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 00z NOGAPS looks beautiful. It's still a little too suppressed for my area, but it holds the energy intact more so than the GFS and generates a heavy precip shield that buries birmingham to atlanta to Columbia. Do you have the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Do you have the Ukie? From the course maps I can see it looks hawt! at 120h, there's a sub 1010 low sitting just south of new orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 UKMet looks like it's a smidge south of its morning run...positive trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 UKMet at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like to me that the UKMet sfc track would be right up the Carolina coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 So gfs is still supressed, UKIE looks good and GGEM looks to me like it would be inland somewhat but hard to tell on the crappy maps. All is well at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like to me that the UKMet sfc track would be right up the Carolina coastline Similar to the 12z JMA, and while it is hard to plot the in between with the 24 hrs panels, the <985mb low at 144 hrs is telling. Surface reflection at 120 hrs south of LA, offshore near ILM, maybe through the inner banks and up the coast, but looks outside of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Similar to the 12z JMA, and while it is hard to plot the in between with the 24 hrs panels, the <985mb low at 144 hrs is telling. Surface reflection at 120 hrs south of LA, offshore near ILM, maybe clipping the OBX and up the coast, but looks outside of the benchmark. When you say benchmark, do you mean the coastline? Yeah, it's difficult to be exact with the 24 hr panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 UKMet actually has an interesting look at 72 with a weak sfc low off the GA coast...and the upper wave just west of there looks slightly SE of the GFS's positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 When you say benchmark, do you mean the coastline? Yeah, it's difficult to be exact with the 24 hr panels. 40N 70W, typically for NE SN-storms, and the MA too, you want a track just inside those coordinates. aka DaBenchmark Temps in the mid 40's to 50 will not cut it on the first go round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Canadian 500mb vort and sfc low are slightly south from its morning run. Sfc low tracks from LA to central VA. Biggest difference I see with the GGEM is that the 500mb flow over the Great Lakes isn't as blocky compared to the 00z UKMet and 12z Euro as the wave is diving through the S Rockies - i.e. the flow is more to the E or ENE instead of to the ESE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0ZGFS is a letdown for East TN. About 3" is all we can muster up here for that run which means it would just be like every other storm before it. The odds for accumulating snow are still good though and so I'd probably bump it up to a 1 in 3 chance, but until I see really good trends in the short range I won't buy 6" for Knoxville... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 new runs on gfs3 looks like it comes through pretty quick but with decent moisture. Maybe some rain in the early morn on Thursday but last bufkit I checked was a changeover for 2 hours or so to rain for RDU. Last precip for RDU was from 8pm wed to 5 pm thurs. Ratios are in the 10 to 15 range before it fizzles OTS. I'm a bit worried for the roofs in Mass. as it tracks up the coast. Clear them off soon folks. It will be heavy wet stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0ZGFS is a letdown for East TN. About 3" is all we can muster up here for that run which means it would just be like every other storm before it. The odds for accumulating snow are still good though and so I'd probably bump it up to a 1 in 3 chance, but until I see really good trends in the short range I won't buy 6" for Knoxville... yet. The pattern is what to watch for...I wouldn't worry about qpf at this point. It looks to be that a storm is in the forecast. That's about all we can hope for in the SE at this point. I would guess this tracks inside the coast. We are not in the same pattern as December and January. The danger is that this cuts inland, and there is still plenty of time for this to do so. The GFS has had trouble all season depicting storms past four days. The Euro, Ukie, and Canadian are the ones to watch, and even the JMA to some extent. I certainly don't discount the GFS, but it has not been dependable at this range. I will be much more interested if the 0z Euro has some form of the storm. Edit: If someone has the 0z Euro, do you mind giving an update when it rolls to the time we have been discussing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 I am liking the model trends for 0Z. The chances for a widespread, moderate event are increasing. We still have a ways to go and things can change, however, at least we are not seeing a bullseye with borderline track. Hoping that the trends continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FWIW, 00z GFS ensemble mean pops a 1010mb LP in the northern gulf for Monday's system. That might be a surprise system for a few west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 "What the sun was doing for the simultaneous superstorms end Jan – start Feb & WHAT NEXT for world weather? Piers Corbyn warns of three world top red warning notably dangerous weather periods – around Feb 10-12, 14-15, & 27-28" I have been following Piers Corbyn this winter and he really knows his stuff. He has predicted all of the major storms from weeks out all based on solar activity. He is also a strong anti-global warming person. I like that Feb. 10th date he listed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Day 5 Euro. Weak surface system near LA. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110205062224.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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