superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CPC pretty well sees an end to cold for the SE in the two week range: Pattern changes often harken snowstorms, it seems. 3/1-3/2 2009 come to mind. It snowed hard and got real cold for a couple days, then warmed up and got into the 60s a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Pattern changes often harken snowstorms, it seems. 3/1-3/2 2009 come to mind. It snowed hard and got real cold for a couple days, then warmed up and got into the 60s a few days later. Thats how I always remembered snow storms as a kid. Super cold for a day or two then really warm and all the snow melting fast. BTW 18z looks more SE with that low out to 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's also slower with the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Overall, GFS looks a lot like the 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 @129 the low is around New Orleans...this looks like it's gonna take a really good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ESE flow over the Great Lakes is keeping everything fairly suppressed and cold, like this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks to get sheared out on the 18z...Very light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 @138 it just totally fizzles out. QPF is practically non existent for everyone GA and east. Right where we want the GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS is cold, weaker and supressed. Translation: Big winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That's our typical gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, ends up weak, but cold...I"ll take that look with the GFS all day long right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 @138 it just totally fizzles out. QPF is practically non existent for everyone GA and east. Right where we want the GFS lol. Excellent! I'd rather see this than what the Euro was selling. 18z says, "you think this is an apps runner? I'll show you an 'apps runner'..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here we have another solution for the mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z gfs back to its old trick of suppression city. Not to worry though. This is where we want it at this time I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Great trend with the gfs... it suppresses everything out, but like a few have alluded to, this is right where we want to see the gfs at this time range. In fact I'd must rather is show this solution rather than a major snowstorm for the southeast... especially when the GGEM, UKMET, ECWMF have a stronger reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ill take that in this range over pretty much anything on the GFS lol. Kinda strange though... what changed to mke it turn into pretty much nothing on 18Z. Looks quiet similar to earlier runs up until that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS has light snow south of Montgomery, AL / Macon, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18Z gfs is not far from bringing SAV/CHS a rare snowfall due to deep supression. However, it weakens too much and gives them no more than .05" qpf with only borderline 0C 850's. That's not going to quite do the trick. However, perhaps that means that a deeply supressed system is back on the table of possibilities? Longterm (300 year) climo says that 2/8-15 is by far the peak for 2"+ snowfalls in SAV/CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS is cold, weaker and supressed. Translation: Big winter storm. LOL. GFS cold and supressed. Canadian warm and overamplified. Operational Euro nearly a perfect track. Euro Ensembles almost perfect track. This is about as a good a position that you can be in the modeling world this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Great trend with the gfs... it suppresses everything out, but like a few have alluded to, this is right where we want to see the gfs at this time range. In fact I'd must rather is show this solution rather than a major snowstorm for the southeast... especially when the GGEM, UKMET, ECWMF have a stronger reflection. Okay, stupid question here....why do we want it to show it supressed for? Is it because in the longer range it won't be, compared to if it showed NO supression, then it would be supressed? I know how the trends work starting out way south, going way north, south again, and then more and more into line, is it the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's a sad state of our American model when we have to do a drastic, full blown translation on what it's model output really means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's a sad state of our American model when we have to do a drastic, full blown translation on what it's model output really means. It's pretty laughable that a weather model shows basically no storm at all and we all rejoice haha. How much money was put into developing this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 all of the storms this year have come back northwest so we need it where its at right now or even further south, but so far out to even think about getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Gfs weakens the wave coming across. Typical it did this at 12z too. Like Robert said = major snowstorm just like when it sends on to Cuba. Major flaws with this model. Now when it comes to clippers the gfs will beat any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Okay, stupid question here....why do we want it to show it supressed for? Is it because in the longer range it won't be, compared to if it showed NO supression, then it would be supressed? I know how the trends work starting out way south, going way north, south again, and then more and more into line, is it the same thing? Different areas in the south are looking for different things, but for a mostly snow event, we have a far greater chance of our problem being warm temps rather than the storm being cold, but suppressed too far south and weak. I always want to see the cold air hold....we can find some moisture down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 @138 it just totally fizzles out. QPF is practically non existent for everyone GA and east. Right where we want the GFS lol. Awesome! This means we will have a nice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Okay, stupid question here....why do we want it to show it supressed for? Is it because in the longer range it won't be, compared to if it showed NO supression, then it would be supressed? I know how the trends work starting out way south, going way north, south again, and then more and more into line, is it the same thing? The gfs has a nagging tendency to over suppress features in the long range. When the gfs has a concrete shortwave, but does not amplify it, yet the ECWMF, GGEM, and UKMET have a much stronger feature, there is a high likelihood that its out to lunch. In fact I'm still worried more that this system tries to cut too far north rather than suppression at this time, so the longer the gfs shows this really far south solution, the less time it has to trend all the way back into an Apps or Lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z NOGAPS is in the GFS camp. It does throw some decent snow across MS/AL/GA/SC before heading OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z NOGAPS is in the GFS camp. It does throw some decent snow across MS/AL/GA/SC before heading OTS. Yes but it has the same bias as the GFS to suppress everthing. In other words: GOOD NEWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Watch it actually go to Cuba.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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