chapelhillwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 DT also changed his mind yesterday in the span of 3 hours based solely on the Euro. I have complete confidence in his call that the track isn't supported by the pattern. We've had the same pattern for all of recorded history. It has never changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I have complete confidence in his call that the track isn't supported by the pattern. We've had the same pattern for all of recorded history. It has never changed. If you go look on there now he has the **ALERT!!1!!!1111111111!!!!!! EURO SHOWS SNOW FOR US**...yet a few hours before that claimed the GFS was BS and had zero model support and it should be thrown out because it wouldn't happen. How do people on Facebook not get totally confused by him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If you go look on there now he has the **ALERT!!1!!!1111111111!!!!!! EURO SHOWS SNOW FOR US**...yet a few hours before that claimed the GFS was BS and had zero model support and it should be thrown out because it wouldn't happen. How do people on Facebook not get totally confused by him? You'd need a PhD in logical thought to figure out what he meant a lot of the time... ah well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Again, it was just another opinion, but later in his comments he says that even though the Euro and GFS are showing a suppressed track, he doen't believe them and thinks it will be more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If you go look on there now he has the **ALERT!!1!!!1111111111!!!!!! EURO SHOWS SNOW FOR US**...yet a few hours before that claimed the GFS was BS and had zero model support and it should be thrown out because it wouldn't happen. How do people on Facebook not get totally confused by him? Yeah, he does a poor job of differentiating between what a model says and what he thinks will happen on his fb page. He confuses a lot of the less knowledgeable people on his fb page. As far as I can tell, he's also inconsistent with his reasoning at times. He might ultimately be right about the track (we'll know in a few days) but like wx models, Dave has his own biases sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro ensembles faster/more suppressed than the Op. Still skeptical for MBY, but folks to the north in TN/NC have a decent shot at some snow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro ensembles faster/more suppressed than the Op. Still skeptical for MBY, but folks to the north in TN/NC have a decent shot at some snow IMO. Interesting, thanks Cheeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro ensembles faster/more suppressed than the Op. Still skeptical for MBY, but folks to the north in TN/NC have a decent shot at some snow IMO. I'm assuming that means more of a widespread event in NC if you believe the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro ensembles faster/more suppressed than the Op. Still skeptical for MBY, but folks to the north in TN/NC have a decent shot at some snow IMO. It's great when you actually think someone has a chance, because you are right, almost 100% of the time with these general calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro ensembles faster/more suppressed than the Op. Still skeptical for MBY, but folks to the north in TN/NC have a decent shot at some snow IMO. I appreciate the update on the ensembles Cheez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CPC pretty well sees an end to cold for the SE in the two week range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CPC pretty well sees an end to cold for the SE in the two week range: That looks nice to me. After this cold snap a warmup will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm assuming that means more of a widespread event in NC if you believe the ensembles? Pretty much. Ensemble mean holds the 850 0c from atlanta to columbia the entire time with widespread snow for north ga, upstate, and north carolina. btw, i think because of the euro and gfs ensemble mean supporting a further south/colder solution is pretty noteworthy. I think the threat for north ga/upstate is a little higher myself. I wouldn't say it's actually good yet because of all the uncertainty but I would certainly say we at least stand a shot, especially from the usual cutoff line from atlanta/northern burbs to athens to greenwood to or just north of columbia. Far too soon to honestly have a solid opinion with all these flip flops though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z Euro ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wow, the Euro ensembles look really good. You'd need a PhD in logical thought to figure out what he meant a lot of the time... ah well. DT is just so sophisticated that us commoners are too stupid to comprehend his tremendous logic. However, by saying anything and everything he has made sure he will be right one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GGEM ens mean lines up with the Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 You know it would fit the KTRI pattern this year to have a weaker sliding solution that puts down a good 4-8 along the TN border on the south end and north AL/GA and screw me up here with a dusting to 2 inches. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC aftn update...once again, love how they are a 'national' office, but their discussions imply that the world doesn't exist south of the Ohio Valley / Virginia... 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS: THE 12Z/04 GFS HAS BACKED OFF ITS BIG E COAST SNOWSTORM FOR THU....TAKING A WEAK WAVE ACROSS THE SERN STATES VERY FLAT AND VERY FAR S...A COMPLETE TURNABOUT FROM ITS 00Z RUN. THE 12Z/04 UKMET AND CANADIAN TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE SYS. NOW...IT IS THE 12Z/04 ECMWF WHICH DEPICTS THE HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW FROM THE OH VLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENG THU. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. A CHANGE UPSTREAM IN THE NEW ECMWF RUN DAY 6 IN THE ERN PACIFIC...IF CORRECT...COULD IMPACT THE DOWNSTREAM SYS OVER THE ERN STATES. A MUCH DEEPER THAN CONTINUITY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALONG 140W WILL HELP KEEP THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER ECMWF RUNS WITH COLDER THICKNESSES THRU THE COASTAL PLAIN THU. FINAL GRAPHICS FLATTENED THE SYS OVER THE SERN STATES FOR THU BEFORE WE SAW THE NEW ECMWF BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS ADJUSTMENT IS LOW. They should just rename themselves the mid atlantic and new england hpc office. Otherwise known as the center of the weather universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Let's drop the dt stuff guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 JMA looks pretty impressive over most of the Western Half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 You know it would fit the KTRI pattern this year to have a weaker sliding solution that puts down a good 4-8 along the TN border on the south end and north AL/GA and screw me up here with a dusting to 2 inches. lol I'm hugging the euro op and jma. But if you compare the 0z gfs to the 12z euro they are not too far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wow, the Euro ensembles look really good. Not that far off from yesterday's 12z mean with placement off the SE coast, save about 5mb and 12-18hrs slower. Today though is a classic example of the expected shifts and variability in solutions we see in the 5-7 day range. Impossible to get more than mildly excited, as tomorrow it could flip back, even more extreme than what we saw today. Having the GFS and Euro ens means suggesting potential atm is good, but I would like to see the Canadian mean jump on board, and thus far it has not. Not sure how it can though given the time-step, as it seems to have the most spread consistently between its individual members in the med-long range. We still have another 48-72 hrs before the dead-zone, as I like to call it. The period between 96 - 48 hrs out which are most important in bringing it home so to speak. Once we get within 96, the wild swings usually start settling down, and by 48 most guidance begins to hone in on the finer details. Until then, anythings possible, and just as easy as 12z giveth today, 0z could take it all away, rinse and repeat for the weekend, with hopefully some continuity and general agreement starting to show up early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We still have another 48-72 hrs before the dead-zone, as I like to call it. The period between 96 - 48 hrs out which are most important in bringing it home so to speak. Once we get within 96, the wild swings usually start settling down, and by 48 most guidance begins to hone in on the finer details. Good stuff, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So are there any thoughts on what Eastern NC might get? There is still a great deal of uncertainty, and trying to determine the impacts for our region, the SE as a whole, let alone a specific area at this point is impossible. As several have mentioned today, the first system early next week needs to do its thing, hopefully going nuclear through the Canadian Maritimes and as that event clears, this one should come better into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Folks, Upon further review the ATL-AHN area snowfall suggested by the awesome 12Z gfs run is more like 4-6" rather than 3-4" (based on qpf but adding some for high ratios)! Someone please pinch me and then bring it on!! Of course, the odds are, as I stated earlier, high that it won't verify to be anywhere near this good there as it is about as good as can get in this situation. However, climo says this is at the start of the most favored period of the entire winter. So, it is very believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So is that where it needs to go nuclear or would it hurt if it happened sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 As mentioned by others, ECMWF ENS is much flatter than the op run. Good for alot of us. Nice trends today, lets see what the 18z/00z holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So is that where it needs to go nuclear or would it hurt if it happened sooner? That is the area where the system begins to really deepen, and current consensus is it should take up residence near the south tip of Greenland at day 6. 12z GFS for example drops it almost 30mb between 90 and 102 hrs, going from 992 - 964 just to the south of the Island of Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 JMA looks pretty impressive over most of the Western Half of NC. Qc, Where is the cutoff for snow vs mix on the JMA? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like the 18z is starting to bomb that storm out from Monday out to 87 gotta see where it eventually goes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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